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Open Access Article
1 - IT Services Outsourcing Novation tactics and Entrepreneurial Strategies in the Financial Services (Case Study: Private and public banks in Markazi province)
mahtab EshghiaraghiWith the rapid rise of global developments and transition from the traditional society to the information society, paying attention to entrepreneurial strategies for the correct and optimal use of new opportunities and values has forced the banking system to be changed MoreWith the rapid rise of global developments and transition from the traditional society to the information society, paying attention to entrepreneurial strategies for the correct and optimal use of new opportunities and values has forced the banking system to be changed more and more. Outsourcing of information technolog( IT) services has changed to a strategy option in using IT services for organizations due to relatively large advantages for organizations. The aim of this study is to explain the role of Outsourcing strategies of IT services in the financial Services of Private and public Banks inMarkazi province. This research is practical in terms of objective and the method is correlational.The statistical population consists of managers and experts of Private and public banks in Markaziprovince which over 103 is members of the community.Research data collected via questionnaire with Cronbach's alpha 0.889 were analyzed throughSpss software. Besides, multivariate regression and Pearson correlation test were applied to analyze them.The result ideates that all hypotheses are accepted. Also findings show that there is a direct relationship between management variables and expenses reduction, novation technologies and accessibility to more specialty (Mobile Banking, Internet and Electronics), IT security and risk reduction, increasing the business flexibility with novation Tactics and strategies of information technology IT services outsourcing in financial Services. So it is concludee that Private and public banks in Markazi province can improve financial services through raising access to more profession and using new technologies, decreasing the expenses, focusing on the main activities, decreasing risks and contracting for IT security and incresing commercial flexibility by IT outsourcingWith the rapid rise of global developments and transition from the traditional society to the information society, paying attention to entrepreneurial strategies for the correct and optimal use of new opportunities and values has forced the banking system to be changed more and more. Outsourcing of information technolog( IT) services has changed to a strategy option in using IT services for organizations due to relatively large advantages for organizations. The aim of this study is to explain the role of Outsourcing strategies of IT services in the financial Services of Private and public Banks inMarkazi province. This research is practical in terms of objective and the method is correlational.The statistical population consists of managers and experts of Private and public banks in Markaziprovince which over 103 is members of the community.Research data collected via questionnaire with Cronbach's alpha 0.889 were analyzed throughSpss software. Besides, multivariate regression and Pearson correlation test were applied to analyze them.The result ideates that all hypotheses are accepted. Also findings show that there is a direct relationship between management variables and expenses reduction, novation technologies and accessibility to more specialty (Mobile Banking, Internet and Electronics), IT security and risk reduction, increasing the business flexibility with novation Tactics and strategies of information technology IT services outsourcing in financial Services. So it is concludee that Private and public banks in Markazi province can improve financial services through raising access to more profession and using new technologies, decreasing the expenses, focusing on the main activities, decreasing risks and contracting for IT security and incresing commercial flexibility by IT outsourcing. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - A Hybrid Neural Network Ensemble Model for Credit Risk Assessment
shaban elahi Ahmad ghodselahi hamidreza najiBanking is a specific industry that deals with capital and risk for making profit. Credit risk as the most important risk, is an active research domain in financial risk management studies. In this paper a hybrid model for credit risk assessment which applies ensemble l MoreBanking is a specific industry that deals with capital and risk for making profit. Credit risk as the most important risk, is an active research domain in financial risk management studies. In this paper a hybrid model for credit risk assessment which applies ensemble learning for credit granting decisions is designed. Combining clustering and classification techniques resulted in system improvement. The German bank real dataset was used for neural network training. The proposed model implemented as credit risk evaluation multi agent system and the results showed the proposed model has higher accuracy, better performance and lesser cost in applicant classification when compared with other credit risk evaluation methods Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Environmental risk assesssment of construction of caspian port in Anzali free zone by using Integration AHP& TOPSIS
shamim moghadami niloofar Abedinzade Maryam Haghighi khomamiEnvironmental risk assessment is a further step of environmental impact assessment and analyze different aspects of risk, while understanding the Environmental impact zone, the environmental sensitivity of the area affected by special environmental values as well as ana MoreEnvironmental risk assessment is a further step of environmental impact assessment and analyze different aspects of risk, while understanding the Environmental impact zone, the environmental sensitivity of the area affected by special environmental values as well as analysis and risk assessment district is considered. To accomplish this study first by using of field investigation the activities which leads to risk in construction of Caspian port water front were identified and in order to extract the significant risks the specialists questioner (Delphi) was used. Finally among the identified risks, 10 environmental risks were chosen for prioritizing.After identifying the risks, indicators such as probability, severity of risk and the sensibility of the environment were selected as prioritizing criteria. AHP method and ECPRO 2000 software, for determining the risk probability, for determination the severity of risk scores and the reference texts for determining the values of sensitivity were applied. After determining the indicators, the TOPSIS software was used to risk prioritizing. The results of prioritizing studied risk showed that the highest risk is related to increased turbidity, deformation of substrate and water pollution are with weights 0.938, 0.898 and 0.662 respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Development process on regional risk assessment
ساجده مدنی mokarram ravanbakhsh مریم پناهندهEcoRA, which is aimed at appraising a wide range of undesirable impacts on ecosystems exposed to a possible eco-environmental hazard, has been highly recommended for environmental decision-making. In this paper reviews the development history of ecological risk assessme MoreEcoRA, which is aimed at appraising a wide range of undesirable impacts on ecosystems exposed to a possible eco-environmental hazard, has been highly recommended for environmental decision-making. In this paper reviews the development history of ecological risk assessment (EcoRA) and presents a perspective for EcoRA and management. In addition, regional EcoRA needs to make further efforts, especially in theoretical study, uncertainty analysis, integrated use of GIS software and comprehensive risk assessment at regional scale in the future work. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Analysis and comparison of students entrepreneurial intentions in Bu Ali Sina College of Agriculture and Payamnoor university of Hamedan
Safiollah Safaei Nasim Izadi Maryam MusivandThis study aimed to investigate the entrepreneurial intention among students of Bu-Ali Sina University in Hamedan and PNU surveys have been conducted within the overall framework. The sample consisted of 370 male and female students in agricultural disciplines in under MoreThis study aimed to investigate the entrepreneurial intention among students of Bu-Ali Sina University in Hamedan and PNU surveys have been conducted within the overall framework. The sample consisted of 370 male and female students in agricultural disciplines in undergraduate students formed the College of Agriculture. To collect information, a questionnaire and a simple random sampling was used to select the sample. Cronbach's alpha coefficient to determine the reliability coefficient was calculated to vary from 850 students' entrepreneurial intentions are good. To analyze the data, descriptive and inferential statistical methods were used. The results showed that in general students of entrepreneurship spirit and intent of the high entrepreneurial intentions are more male students. The results of the analysis showed a correlation between gender, employment situation, risk appetite and economic barriers in interest income and a significant positive correlation with their entrepreneurial intentions can be seen. As well as the entrepreneurial intentions Mnadray difference was observed between the universities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Overview of colic risk factors in horses
Fattah Iranmanesh Seyed Mahmoud Shojaeian Amirsaeed SamimiGastrointestinal diseases are 50% of the problems and diseases that lead to death in adult horses. According to epidemiological studies, for every 100 horses per year, between 0.9 and 10 horses suffer from colic. The occurrence of colic varies between different farms an MoreGastrointestinal diseases are 50% of the problems and diseases that lead to death in adult horses. According to epidemiological studies, for every 100 horses per year, between 0.9 and 10 horses suffer from colic. The occurrence of colic varies between different farms and even at different times in one farm. The occurrence of colic seems to be strongly influenced by the level of quality of herd management and horse maintenance throughout the year. This means that variation in the rate of occurrence originates more from management than from the breed of horses. Various factors such as breed, age, sex, history, nutrition, activities, infectious and parasitic problems and dental problems can increase the risk of colic in horses. For example, Arabian horses have been identified as predisposed to colic, and other Heidegger breeds such as the Thoroughbred and Warmblad, and standard-range horses, are at high risk for colic. In addition, stallions, especially castrated stallions, are more susceptible to colic. Changes in the type of concentrate consumed, the type of other feeds, the quality of forage and pasture are closely related to colic and their causative agents. Intestinal parasites, especially tapeworms and streptococci, are important risk factors for colic that can increase the risk Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - An Effective Risk Computation Metric for Android Malware Detection
Mahmood Deypir Ehsan SharifiAndroid has been targeted by malware developers since it has emerged as widest used operating system for smartphones and mobile devices. Android security mainly relies on user decisions regarding to installing applications (apps) by approving their requested permissions MoreAndroid has been targeted by malware developers since it has emerged as widest used operating system for smartphones and mobile devices. Android security mainly relies on user decisions regarding to installing applications (apps) by approving their requested permissions. Therefore, a systematic user assistance mechanism for making appropriate decisions can significantly improve the security of Android based devices by preventing malicious apps installation. However, the criticality of permissions and the security risk values of apps are not well determined for users in order to make correct decisions. In this study, a new metric is introduced for effective risk computation of untrusted apps based on their required permissions. The metric leverages both frequency of permission usage in malwares and rarity of them in normal apps. Based on the proposed metric, an algorithm is developed and implemented for identifying critical permissions and effective risk computation. The proposed solution can be directly used by the mobile owners to make better decisions or by Android markets to filter out suspicious apps for further examination. Empirical evaluations on real malicious and normal app samples show that the proposed metric has high malware detection rate and is superior to recently proposed risk score measurements. Moreover, it has good performance on unseen apps in term of security risk computation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Evaluation of health risk due to inhalation of volatile organic components in the ambient air of Khorramabad.
Arman SaeiIn this paper, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment is investigated by inhalation volatile organic components in the ambient air of Khorramabad. These compounds include benzene, ethylbenzene , toluene , xylenes (BTEX) and normal Hexane. To assess the risk MoreIn this paper, carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk assessment is investigated by inhalation volatile organic components in the ambient air of Khorramabad. These compounds include benzene, ethylbenzene , toluene , xylenes (BTEX) and normal Hexane. To assess the risk ,first two different scenarios were defined based on the exposure of people to the organic compounds in question and the duration of respiration. Then, the average amount of intake CDI or respiration of mentioned pollutants during life was extracted based on dual scenarios in 11 areas of Khorramabad city. The carcinogenic risk for benzene and ethylbenzene compounds as well as the non- carcinogenic risk for all pollutants discussed in both scenarios were calculated and discussed. It should be noted that due to the high amount of calculations and ease and accuracy in results, programming was done in excel software environment and the initial and final results were calculated directly from this method and the necessary diagrams were drawn. According to the calculation , the annual risk and the total risk of carcinogenicity of inhaling the pollutants in question in the air of Khorramabad for the first scenario are equal to 1.51 E -06 and 5.65 E-01 people per year , respectively. Also, the annual risk and the total risk for the second scenario are 6.19E-07 and 2.31 E-01 per year ,respectively. In addition , the non-carcinogenic risk index for inhalation of the these compounds in the ambient air of Khorramabad is 3.898 and 0.594 for the first and second scenarios respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Examining the appropriate pattern of moral hazard in the non-financial terms of oil and gas contracts
Davood Baghaee Babak Vosoughifard Homayoun HabibiToday, oil has a lot in the economy of its producing countries. For numerous reasons, including the colonial relations between the producing countries and the colonial peoples on the one hand, and the lack of specialist forces and the necessary capital for oil productio MoreToday, oil has a lot in the economy of its producing countries. For numerous reasons, including the colonial relations between the producing countries and the colonial peoples on the one hand, and the lack of specialist forces and the necessary capital for oil production in the Third World countries, with the participation of mainly capitalists from industrialized countries. For this reason, the legal nature of these relationships has been the subject of many discussions. On the one hand, the general and economic aspects and its moral hazard for the host country and the private aspects of capitalism have added to the difficulty of the discussion. The financial and non-financial conditions of such contracts have changed dramatically in different periods of history, creating many patterns. The political and economic changes in the world, in turn, have brought about changes and changes in the context of these relations and its moral hazard. A survey of the first form of these oil relations, signed under the title "Concession Concession" of capital investors with oil-rich governments, has revealed that today's conventional contracts can outline the different aspects of morality in these contracts. In this paper, the study of the appropriate model of moral hazard in the non-financial conditions of oil and gas contracts in Iran is carried out in a descriptive-analytical manner.. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - The Role of Auditors' Social and Professional Responsibility Insurance on Audit Risk and Audit Quality Using the Delphi Approach and Structural Equations
Ali KhozainThis research investigates the role of auditors' social and professional liability insurance on the risk of reputation and quality of audit using the Delphi approach. One way to eliminate risk is to transfer risk, and since auditors may face some risks for various reaso MoreThis research investigates the role of auditors' social and professional liability insurance on the risk of reputation and quality of audit using the Delphi approach. One way to eliminate risk is to transfer risk, and since auditors may face some risks for various reasons, such as failures, professional liability insurance is at stake for them. This study was conducted using a Delphi approach based on 95 questionnaires completed by the auditors in 2018. Using by Structural Equations the results of the first hypothesis showed that independent auditors consider social and professional liability insurance to reduce the risk of their reputation and there is a negative and significant relationship between social insurance and professional liability insurance and the risk of auditors' reputation. The association with the second hypothesis of the results showed that social and professional liability insurance would reduce audit quality Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Assessment of Potential Risks Towards the Business Processes Reengineering Success in SMEs
Mohsen Shafiei Nik Abadi Haniyeh Farahmand Atiyeh Derakhshan Fatemeh RezaeiIn turbulent business environment, organizations are struggling to make themselves agility and for this purpose, it is necessary for them to reengineer the business process. Selecting an appropriate process for reengineering can improve organization in low cost and high MoreIn turbulent business environment, organizations are struggling to make themselves agility and for this purpose, it is necessary for them to reengineer the business process. Selecting an appropriate process for reengineering can improve organization in low cost and high speed. This means that organization should select reengineering processes with the greatest potential for change and also generate the best result for the organizations agility. Due to the high failure rate in business processes reengineering, risk assessment is important for these processes. This paper aims to assess the potential risk in the success of business processes reengineering. This study is an applied research in terms of results and in terms of variables; it includes qualitative variables and takes place in the field of descriptive researches and performs via survey method. Cronbach's alpha method is used for the reliability and content for validity. To verify the hypothesis of research, correlation and regression methods are used. A case study performed small and medium enterprises of an Incubator in Ferdowsi University. The innovative aspect of research is to create a new perspective to examine the effect of risk and failure rates in business processes reengineering. According to the results of this research, among the potential risk dimensions, management support and workplace have the greatest impact on success rate of business processes reengineering. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Identifying and Assessing Relationships between Variables Affecting Innovation in Petrochemical Companies Using DEMATEL Fuzzy Technique
Rahim Ghasemiye Mehdi HashemiThe increasingly rate of change and as a result shortening product life cycle, has emphasis on innovation among industrial companies. The purpose of this research is to briefly discuss the role that innovation plays in global competition and to investigate the relations MoreThe increasingly rate of change and as a result shortening product life cycle, has emphasis on innovation among industrial companies. The purpose of this research is to briefly discuss the role that innovation plays in global competition and to investigate the relationship among influential variables on innovation in petrochemical companies. Drawing from literature review we developed a research model. It consists of 26 factors and then with utilizing DEMATEL Fuzzy technique, they were reduced to seven variables, namely, culture of change, management performance, focusing on clients’ demand, financial conditions, product flexibility, using new technology and government support. Then the effects of above factors on organizational innovation have been assessed. Results emphasizes on vital role of culture of change among employees that must be at center of interest on managers. Also results indicate that clients’ interest is an independent variable that neither effects nor effected by other variables. Among other findings, results indicate that culture of change, management performance and using modern technologies are the most vital factors affecting innovation in petrochemical companies. Investment variable has been identified as an independent variable that has great effect on a number of effective variables in petrochemical companies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Technological Collaboration :Key Concepts and Success Factors
Reza AnsariIn today's world, especially after the development of open innovation paradigm, technological collaboration is the most important sources of innovation. Because, in the new competitive environment, organizations are in need sources of innovation and the current competi MoreIn today's world, especially after the development of open innovation paradigm, technological collaboration is the most important sources of innovation. Because, in the new competitive environment, organizations are in need sources of innovation and the current competitive advantages and internal resources are not sufficient for competitiveness. So technological collaboration is an effective tool for developing competitive advantage and eliminate the gap between current and desired capabilities. This makes the technological collaboration as an engine of growth and productivity in local and international markets and also as one of the most important management tools for improving the competitiveness of organizations and strategic maneuvers in complex and dynamic environments. In recent years, collaboration has been expanded so that five hundred first-class international business, has more than sixty percent of strategic alliances. These collaborations are not necessarily always successful and failure rate has been reported seventy to eighty percent. These failures led to the scientific experts efforts for finding solutions of increase the effectiveness of collaborations, Appropriate methods of collaboration, Reduce the risks of collaboration and identifying Success Factors. In this paper is attempted after literature review, success Factors of technological collaboration is introduced. Understanding these factors provide useful insight for managers and policy makers. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - The relationship between virtual companies and Information Technology with risk management and their interactive impact on each other
Iman Mohammadian Khorasani Reza SanieiIn the present world of business, Information Technology, as a modern technology, plays an essential role. On one hand , because of this essential role and the existence of large resources, the user organizations of this technology are faced with high level of risk, and MoreIn the present world of business, Information Technology, as a modern technology, plays an essential role. On one hand , because of this essential role and the existence of large resources, the user organizations of this technology are faced with high level of risk, and on the other hand the rapid changes of technology and business environment; these factors, together, clarify the necessity of using effective and comprehensive risk management in the field of Information Technology. By conducting a general study over the identity of Information Technology and its related risks, in this article its been tried to provide and introduce a suitable framework for risk management in addition with IT use as a useful tool in the field of risk management. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Identifying Risks of Oil Industry Projects Based on PMBOK’s Standard, and Ranking Them by Using FAHP & Fuzzy TOPSIS Case study: Tehran Jonoob Technical and Construction Company, in the Site of Persian Gulf Star Oil Company
ebrahim jamali mahnaz barkhordai ahmadiAccording that the risks in the project could have a significant effect on the short-term performance and long-term negative impact on financial performance, therefore, risk management is necessary to reduce failures due to various risks such as uncertain economic cycle MoreAccording that the risks in the project could have a significant effect on the short-term performance and long-term negative impact on financial performance, therefore, risk management is necessary to reduce failures due to various risks such as uncertain economic cycles, uncertain customer demand and unpredictable natural disasters and humanitarian. Previous studies have shown that having a comprehensive list of risks in oil and gas projects and also prioritizing and determine risks significance is important. In this study we identified TJ (Tehran Jonoob Co.) risks using PMBOK’s methods of risk identification and categorizing, Then specified the weight of the criteria’s (cost, time, quality, scope) using fuzzy hierarchical analysis (Fuzzy AHP) and Finally we discussed on prioritizing risks totally and in groups using TOPSIS method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Identify the Technological Risks of the New Product Development Process and Prioritize by the Analytical Network Process (ANP)
Abolfazl mirzaramazani Sayed Mahdi Golestan Hashemi Seyed Mohammad Massoud naserianNowadays, Organizational survival depends on the tendency toward new products and the use of new ways to create them. Developing new product is a process through which a new product or a service is offered to the customers. More precisely, the new product development pr MoreNowadays, Organizational survival depends on the tendency toward new products and the use of new ways to create them. Developing new product is a process through which a new product or a service is offered to the customers. More precisely, the new product development process involves using resources and capabilities to create a new product or improve an existing product. Given the shorter life cycle of products and technology developments, new product development process in the growth, survival, and competitiveness of the utmost importance. There are several risks during new product development process; that in general, are divided into three major categories: technological risks, organizational risks, and marketing risks. According to studies, the technological risks are one of the most important risks. Perceived technological risk refers to a firm’s inability to completely understand or accurately predict some aspects of the technological environment as it relates to NPD projects. Hence identifying and reducing these risks helps to increase the success rate of the new product development process. In this research, by reviewing the literature on the areas of the new product development process, risk and risk management, 20 types of common technological risks in new product development process are extracted from the literature and using a number of experts from Malek Ashtar University of Isfahan who are specialized in this field, they are prioritized by the Analytical Network Process (ANP). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - The Role of Organizational Capabilities in Reducing Technological Risks and Improving the Market Performance of Knowledge Companies by Mediating role of Technology Intelligence
Mohammad hataminejad Mohsen Akbari Mostafa Ebrahim pour AzbaryNowadays knowledge-based companies are regarded as an important tool in economic development, and since in the current market, dynamic technological envirorments compel companies to seek smart and responsive solutions to this turbulent environment. The rapid rate of tec MoreNowadays knowledge-based companies are regarded as an important tool in economic development, and since in the current market, dynamic technological envirorments compel companies to seek smart and responsive solutions to this turbulent environment. The rapid rate of technological change puts knowledge-based companies at risk; therefore, in order to be efficient and effective in the field of technology, they must acquire the capabilities necessary for business product changes, materials, processes, and technologies. Organizational capabilities and technology intelligence are some of the tools that help companies adapt to technological environment. The purpose of this study is descriptive and the method of data gathering is, library and qualitative type based on content analysis. From the descriptive-analytical approach to content description and evaluation, 63 articles were selected that are closely related to the research topic and finally. According to the minimum number needed to generalize the results, according to experts and academic staff, 30 of the most relevant articles were analyzed as target community articles. In this study, qualitative content analysis method with summary approach was used. Organizing qualitative data in the analysis of this research has been done in three stages of initial coding, open coding and selective coding. the present study examines the role of organizational capabilities in reducing technological risk and knowledge based on knowledge and knowledge of knowledge - based businesses, examines the role of organizational capabilities in reducing technological risks and improving the market performance of knowledge firms by mediating the more efficient and developing competition and improving the new products and services. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - Developing the Risk Management Model in Procurement Process of Project based Organization
اميرحسين اصلاني سید علیرضا میر محمد صادقیThe procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management MoreThe procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management gathered and analyzed. Then the models are examined based on the questionnaire and according to the concluded index. Through integrating some models which have higher scores in assessing the criteria and through adding other factors, a model for implementing risk management in the procurement process of project-based organizations is suggested. The researcher uses the group decision making for considered goods and this factor is the strength points of the suggested model. In this model besides developing and optimizing organization procurement process, risk management affairs in planning for procurement are considered. In order to examine the operation of the developed model, it is implemented in the considered organization and the results of this implementation shows that the level of risk management operation in procurement process improved. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Developing the Risk Management Model in Procurement Process of Project based Organization
اميرحسين اصلاني Ahmad نورنگ سید علیرضا میر محمد صادقی حسام الدین اصلانیThe procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management MoreThe procurement plays a critical role in achieving the goals of project-based organizations, as it is one of the project management fields which include risk and uncertainty. In this article, different models which are existed in the field of procurement risk management gathered and analyzed. Then the models are examined based on the questionnaire and according to the concluded index. Through integrating some models which have higher scores in assessing the criteria and through adding other factors, a model for implementing risk management in the procurement process of project-based organizations is suggested. The researcher uses the group decision making for considered goods and this factor is the strength points of the suggested model. In this model besides developing and optimizing organization procurement process, risk management affairs in planning for procurement are considered. In order to examine the operation of the developed model, it is implemented in the considered organization and the results of this implementation shows that the level of risk management operation in procurement process improved. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - A New Approach Based on Failure Mode and Effects Analysis and Kepland to Extract and Prioritize the Effective risks on Project Completion Time
mojtaba salehiAbstract Projects are planned based on estimated amounts that are the result of having little information about the future plans. According to the uncertainty of planning, time delays and costs of uncertainty are inevitable. The main objective of this study is to prese MoreAbstract Projects are planned based on estimated amounts that are the result of having little information about the future plans. According to the uncertainty of planning, time delays and costs of uncertainty are inevitable. The main objective of this study is to present a new approach based on failure mode and effects analysis and fuzzy logic to identify the affecting risks on duration of projects and ranking them using Kepland technique. In addition, in this research Shannon entropy is used for calculation of the weights of indexes. So after the study of related researches as well as through interviews and Delphi technique, some risks were identified. Then, based on three indicators of risk in the FMEA (severity, probability of occurrence, probability of detection), three questionnaire was prepared and their validity was confirmed by experts and reliability was calculated by Cronbach coefficient using SPSS software. The population of the study is 22 managers and experts that work on Debal Khazaei Company. Using triangular fuzzy numbers, the verbal variables of questionnaires became fuzzy numbers. Shannon entropy is used for calculation of weight of each index. Then, using decision making methods, ELECTRE TAXONOMY, TOPSIS and SAW, the risks are ranked. Finally, because of the relative difference of ranking in different techniques, Kapland technique is used to combine the results. TO help for developing the strategies of responding to the risks, some suggestions are presented. The contribution of this research is the simultaneous use of FMEA and Shannon's entropy to analisys the importance of risks and the ranking of them using Kepland technique. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - An Applicable Model for Diagnosing and Ranking the Key Success Factors of Project Risk Management (Case study: Research Institute of Petroleum Industry)
Mohammad Ali HatefiThe purpose of project risk management is to improve project performance by systematically identifying and assessing risks, developing strategies to reduce threats and to maximize opportunities. According to our review, some key success factors have previously been iden MoreThe purpose of project risk management is to improve project performance by systematically identifying and assessing risks, developing strategies to reduce threats and to maximize opportunities. According to our review, some key success factors have previously been identified in project risk management literature, but their importance relative to each other has yet been uncovered. This paper introduces an applicable model to diagnose and to rank the project risk management key success factors of an assumed project, using group decision-making. Surely, having the obtained rank may lead the project manager view toward focusing on critical points of project risk management. The proposed model could be used by the analysts of the other management fields. The paper ends with explaining a case study. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - The effect of risk and resources on Firm's growth strategies in high tech industries
mohsen Parsajam Bahman Hajipour Esmaeil Fadaei NejadDuring the last decade there was a well known strategy to support startups and enterprenuers to stabilish firms in high tech industries. despite the position of high-tech industries has been weakened especially in export share. Growth strategies utilized by high-tech fi MoreDuring the last decade there was a well known strategy to support startups and enterprenuers to stabilish firms in high tech industries. despite the position of high-tech industries has been weakened especially in export share. Growth strategies utilized by high-tech firms can improve the position. Growth strategies help firms to increase their market share and sale revenues. Hence, current study aims to designate and validate growth strategies of high-tech firms. Research model has been proposed based on the extended literature, the situation of high-tech industry, and experts' views. Data is gathered by a self-administrated questionnaire and would be analyzed by structural equation modeling using SPSS 18 and LISERL 8.54. Population is managers of high-tech firms in Iran. A convenience sampling approach is employed to collect estimated sample. Data achieved from 451 respondents was analyzed. Results indicated that: 1) growth strategies of high tech firms affect their outputs, 2) resources affect growth strategies of high-tech firms, 3) multiple risks affect the utilization of resources by the high tech firms, and 4) high tech firms provide the needed resources for their growth based on the outcomes in terms of profit and/or attractiveness Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Investigation of the relationship between the managers narcissism with monitoring costs
ameneh bazrafshan ashraf rezaei nasabThe present study investigates the relationship between board of directors, CEO and financial non-executive member of the board narcissism with performance monitoring costs. Theoretically, firms with narcissistic manager have a higher risk of inherent risk and control r MoreThe present study investigates the relationship between board of directors, CEO and financial non-executive member of the board narcissism with performance monitoring costs. Theoretically, firms with narcissistic manager have a higher risk of inherent risk and control risk Compared to other firms. Therefore, auditors must do additional work to maintain an acceptable level of audit risk when faced with such managers, and ultimately will demand more fees. To measure narcissism is used of the area of managers’ signatures. In this regard, 101 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange have been investigated in the period of 8 years during the years 2009-2017. The present research is an applied research in terms of purpose, and in terms of research method, descriptive-correlation is considered. The results of the research show that there is significant relationship between board of directors' narcissism (based on signature size) and audit fees. However, no significant relationship was found between the CEO and the financial non-executive member of the board narcissism with audit fees. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - Assessing the Impact of Managerial Capacity, Political Relationships, and Financial Crisis on Performance Improvement, Risk Management and Price Crash of accepted Banks in TEHRAN stock exchange: Combined method of data envelopment analysis and regression estimation of sls2
Abdolmajid Kozehgar Kaliji abbas Pouraghajan Mohammad AbbasianIdentifying the factors affecting the performance, risk and price of banks is important both from the perspective of shareholders and depositors and from the perspective of active elements in the market. Given that the financial market consists of the two main pillars o MoreIdentifying the factors affecting the performance, risk and price of banks is important both from the perspective of shareholders and depositors and from the perspective of active elements in the market. Given that the financial market consists of the two main pillars of the money market and the capital market, the most important task of the capital market is to attract scattered capital and its optimal allocation to units that move both for economic development and to maintain the expected interests of investors. Therefore, banks, as the engine of financing the economy, are of special importance for other enterprises active in the economy, both for the government and for the banks themselves. Accordingly, identifying the factors and indicators affecting performance and profitability, risk management, as well as changes in their stock prices, both in terms of bank management and from a macroeconomic point of view, can guide the economy and governments. On the other hand, given that the main activity of banks is to provide facilities and loans to applicants, proper management of banking challenges and improving the factors affecting the efficiency and effectiveness of banking resources, can move the economic cycle in the right direction. Accordingly, the researcher analyzed the information of 11 banks in the 9-year period from 2009 to 2017 to assess the impact of management ability, political relations and financial crises on performance improvement, risk management and falling prices of banks listed on the stock exchange. Tehran Stock Exchange paid. The results of the analysis of hypotheses in three parts show that first, the ability to manage has no significant effects on any of the performance indicators of banks, including return on assets, return on capital, growth rate of shared income and growth rate of non-shared income, as well as management ability on liquidity risk effects. It is significant, but it does not affect credit, operational and bankruptcy risk. Finally, the ability to manage has not affected the risk of falling stock prices of banks. Second, political relations have only a positive and significant effect on the growth rate of shared income and have no significant effects on return on assets, return on capital and growth rate of non-shared income. Also, political relations have significant effects on liquidity risk and bankruptcy, but on risk. Credit and operations are not affected. Finally, political relations have not affected the risk of falling stock prices of banks. Third, financial crises only have a positive and significant effect on the growth rate of shared income and have no significant effects on return on assets, return on capital and growth rate of non-shared income. Also, financial crises have significant effects on credit risk, liquidity and bankruptcy. Does not affect operational risk Finally, financial crises have a statistically significant effect on the risk of falling stock prices of banks. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Assessing the effect of macroeconomic shocks on systemic risk of the banking system using the SVAR model in Iran
ali ostadhashemi seyed jalal sharif ali SouriIn this study, we have used the total capital market index (TEDPIX) as an index of the real sector of the economy and the index of banks and credit financial institutions as an index that explains the developments of the banking system. Also, oil revenues, exchange rate MoreIn this study, we have used the total capital market index (TEDPIX) as an index of the real sector of the economy and the index of banks and credit financial institutions as an index that explains the developments of the banking system. Also, oil revenues, exchange rate uncertainty, tax revenues, liquidity, nominal interest rates, inflation uncertainty and GDP have been used as macroeconomic variables in the research period (1370-1396). To estimate the systemic risk of the banking system, the quarterly data of the banks' index is used and the value at risk of the return of the seasonal data of the index is estimated using an exponential GARCH model. In order to model the interaction of macroeconomic variables and systemic risk of the banking system, an unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model was estimated and then using instantaneous impact functions and based on Chulsky analysis, systemic risk response to other variables was investigated and analyzed. In order to identify the channels of impact of economic shocks on the systemic risk of the banking system, based on the structures of the Iranian economy, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model was specified and then the instantaneous impact functions were extracted and the effect of macro variable shocks on the systemic risk of the banking system was investigated. Also, the effect of systemic risk of the banking system on macroeconomic variables was investigated and analyzed using instantaneous impact functions. Finally, the interaction model of macroeconomic variables and systemic risk of the banking system was approved using the vector autoregressive model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - Estimating the score of assessment centers based on the concept of risk and interpersonal differences
امیر آذرفر MohamadMahdi Alishiri Hossein Safari ali ebadiOne of the methods are used to assess and evaluate employees is the evaluation center. Evaluation centers usually have good validity at the tool level, but there are weaknesses at the model level of estimating the final score of evaluation centers. This research is desi MoreOne of the methods are used to assess and evaluate employees is the evaluation center. Evaluation centers usually have good validity at the tool level, but there are weaknesses at the model level of estimating the final score of evaluation centers. This research is designed to provide a method to estimate the final score of assessment centers based on the concept of risk and taking into account interpersonal differences. For this purpose, the data of the evaluation center of 800 managers of the country has been used. In this research, nine different models have been designed and evaluated, and finally, the model with the lowest error rate is presented as the selected model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - Designing an expert system for risk assessment in exploration & development oil and gas fields
Hamidreza Vazirigohar Javad AkhlaghiIn order to assess the risk of exploration and development of oil and gas fields, which is mentioned as one of the most important determining parameters in the economic development of oil- countries, an expert system using the inference fuzzy system approach was desig MoreIn order to assess the risk of exploration and development of oil and gas fields, which is mentioned as one of the most important determining parameters in the economic development of oil- countries, an expert system using the inference fuzzy system approach was designed. First, the system inputs, which are in fact the characteristics of risk assessment for the exploration and development of oil and gas fields, were extracted. In continuation, the knowledge base of the system, the most important part of which is considered to be in the form of if-then rules and based on the opinions of experts in the upstream part of the oil industry. To do this, the degree of system accuracy is measured in two stages based on expert comments. Based on the Likert scale and presenting a questionnaire to the experts, Student's t-test was performed and out of 48 defined indicators, 42 indicators were selected as the final index. In the next step, the data validation of an oil field in the south of the country was provided to the oil industry experts and they were asked to evaluate the output of the system. Finally, the opinions of experts were compared with the output of the expert system and based on the criterion of mean square error (MSE) and a small difference between the average opinion of experts and the output of the system, it was determined that the designed expert system has sufficient accuracy and validity for future studies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Evaluation of Risk Indicators Affecting Consumer TV Shopping Behavior
Bagher Asgarnezhad Nouri Ebrahim Ebrahimzadeh Allahyar Beigi FirooziTV shopping is a form of non-store business that, despite its remarkable growth and optimistic outlook, has more of its negative aspects. Consumers worry about buying a product from "anonymous" sellers without physically testing the products. Therefore, it is assumed th MoreTV shopping is a form of non-store business that, despite its remarkable growth and optimistic outlook, has more of its negative aspects. Consumers worry about buying a product from "anonymous" sellers without physically testing the products. Therefore, it is assumed that people may feel a certain degree of risk when buying a product online. Accordingly, the current study aims to assess the risk indicators affecting the behavior of television purchases in Iran. To have this type of purchase, was selected. In this study, a standard questionnaire was used online and the data were analyzed using SPSS software and structural equation modeling method in Smart Pls software. According to the research literature, 6 types of risks that could affect consumers' TV buying behavior were identified, and based on the results, it was determined that financial, operational and time risks affect shopping behavior. Based on the results, it can be said that the perception of risk in TV shopping affects consumer buying behavior and high level of this risk (s) can prevent the purchase of goods through this channel, so TV marketers need to be diligent in identifying, reducing and minimizing the risks perceived by the consumer by building trust and confidence. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Identifying Systematic Risk Factors in Companies Active in Iranian Medical Tourism Industry[1]
Saeid Amirian Ali Mohammad Ahmadi Abbas Assari Arani Ezatollah AbbasianToday, medical tourism is considered a valuable industry for many countries' economies that have the potentials to receive patients. However, demand fluctuations have devastating effects on the medical tourism industry and put active companies at risk of bankruptcy. Sys MoreToday, medical tourism is considered a valuable industry for many countries' economies that have the potentials to receive patients. However, demand fluctuations have devastating effects on the medical tourism industry and put active companies at risk of bankruptcy. Systematic risks are among the factors involved in demand fluctuations, and companies' readiness to resist them is regarded as an important point in risk management. In cases where the companies are not ready in this regard, potential financial problems and widespread bankruptcy could bring about severe social consequences. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to measure systematic risks in companies actively involved in attracting medical tourists and to estimate the factors affecting such risks. To this end, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) was used. In this method, the beta coefficient ( Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - Investigating the Effect of Socio-Subjective Norms-induced Cognitive Risk Perception on Tourists' Behavioral Intentions During Covid-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Shiraz City, Iran
Yazdan Shirmohammadi Jafar Ahangaran Amin GhanbariThis survey study sought to investigate the effect of cognitive risk perception induced by the subjective norms attitude on tourists' behavioral intentions during the Covid-19 pandemic using structural equation modeling. The statistical population of the study comprised MoreThis survey study sought to investigate the effect of cognitive risk perception induced by the subjective norms attitude on tourists' behavioral intentions during the Covid-19 pandemic using structural equation modeling. The statistical population of the study comprised all tourists who visited the cultural and historical sites of Shiraz City, Iran, out of whom 384 people were selected through convenient sampling using the Cochran formula with a 95% confidence level. To collect the required data, a researcher-developed questionnaire on the “effect of tourists' perception on their target destinations during the Covid-19 pandemic” was administered to the participants. The collected data were then analyzed using Amos software and SPSS software. On the other hand, the reliability and validity of the questionnaire were measured via Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Accordingly, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, composite reliability, and Average Variance Extracted values were reported as over 0.7, 0.7, and 0.5, thus confirming the reliability and validity of the questionnaire. Finally, the structural equation model was used to test the research hypotheses and the relationships between research variables (cognitive risk, behavioral intentions, and subjective norms). The findings of the study suggested that cognitive risk perception positively affected tourists' behavioral intentions through their subjective norms and attitude. Moreover, attitude was recognized as a significant mediator between risk perception and behavioral intentions, while subjective norms mediated the relationship between cognitive perception and behavioral intentions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Modeling Cloud Accounting Risk Reduction Strategies with a Structural-Interpretive Approach
sakineh tajari Ali Khozein majid ashrafi Jamadverdi Gorganli DavajiCloud accounting not only introduces specific risks to the accounting process, but also some of the known risks associated with other cloud-based applications. Considering the great importance of risk reduction strategies in accepting cloud accounting, the aim of this s MoreCloud accounting not only introduces specific risks to the accounting process, but also some of the known risks associated with other cloud-based applications. Considering the great importance of risk reduction strategies in accepting cloud accounting, the aim of this study is to investigate the strategies for reducing cloud accounting risks in Iran using structural-interpretive modeling. the research methodology is a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods that are used to collect the components of strategies for reducing cloud accounting risks from a qualitative method by examining theoretical foundations and performing fuzzy Delphi analysis with the participation of 16 accounting faculty members as experts. In a small part, through the formation of its own structural interaction matrix, it seeks structural-interpretive modeling, which has been done in this part with the participation of 12 faculty members in the field of accounting. the results show that the most basic strategies to reduce cloud accounting risks are based on the prioritization of the acceptance plan. Also at the highest level and least effective strategies to reduce the risks of cloud accounting is to provide timely and adequate training for employees. the most important strategy is to reduce the risks of cloud accounting and should be considered more than other strategies. research findings can fill the research gap in the field of cloud accounting and be useful for managers in decision making. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - Evaluation of the impact of management ability, political relations and financial crises on the risk management of banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange
abdolmajid koze gar abbas pour aghajan Mohammad AbbasianIdentifying the factors affecting the performance, risk and price of banks is important both from the perspective of shareholders and depositors and from the perspective of active elements in the market. Given that the financial market consists of the two main pillars o MoreIdentifying the factors affecting the performance, risk and price of banks is important both from the perspective of shareholders and depositors and from the perspective of active elements in the market. Given that the financial market consists of the two main pillars of the money market and the capital market, the most important task of the capital market is to attract scattered capital and its optimal allocation to units that move both for economic development and to maintain the expected interests of investors. Therefore, banks, as the engine of financing the economy, are of special importance for other enterprises active in the economy, both for the government and for the banks themselves. Accordingly, identifying the factors and indicators affecting performance and profitability, risk management, as well as changes in their stock prices, both in terms of bank management and from a macroeconomic point of view, can guide the economy and governments. On the other hand, given that the main activity of banks is to provide facilities and loans to applicants, proper management of banking challenges and improving the factors affecting the efficiency and effectiveness of banking resources, can move the economic cycle in the right direction. Accordingly, the researcher analyzed the information of 11 banks in the 9-year period from 2009 to 2017 to assess the impact of management ability, political relations and financial crises on performance improvement, risk management and falling prices of banks listed on the stock exchange. Tehran Stock Exchange paid. The results of the analysis of hypotheses in three parts show that first, the ability to manage has no significant effects on any of the performance indicators of banks, including return on assets, return on capital, growth rate of shared income and growth rate of non-shared income, as well as management ability on liquidity risk effects. It is significant, but it does not affect credit, operational and bankruptcy risk. Finally, the ability to manage has not affected the risk of falling stock prices of banks. Second, political relations have only a positive and significant effect on the growth rate of shared income and have no significant effects on return on assets, return on capital and growth rate of non-shared income. Also, political relations have significant effects on liquidity risk and bankruptcy, but on risk. Credit and operations are not affected. Finally, political relations have not affected the risk of falling stock prices of banks. Third, financial crises only have a positive and significant effect on the growth rate of shared income and have no significant effects on return on assets, return on capital and growth rate of non-shared income. Also, financial crises have significant effects on credit risk, liquidity and bankruptcy. Does not affect operational risk Finally, financial crises have a statistically significant effect on the risk of falling stock prices of banks. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Assessment of individual and collective risk of leakage in South Pars Refinery based on estimation of reproducibility of connections and modeling of PHAST software
Gholamreza Jafarinejad Sina Davazdah Emami Mohammad VelayatzadehIn this research, in order to investigate the scope of the effect of two types of fire, Flash Fire and Jet Fire, and to determine the individual and collective risk related to the gas tanks of South Pars refineries, the quantitative risk assessment method was used using MoreIn this research, in order to investigate the scope of the effect of two types of fire, Flash Fire and Jet Fire, and to determine the individual and collective risk related to the gas tanks of South Pars refineries, the quantitative risk assessment method was used using PHAST software. To obtain reproducibility for the inlet and outlet valve flange leakage scenario, all connections in the path were examined separately for each scenario and their reproducibility was calculated. The results related to the gas tanks of South Pars refineries showed that among the leaks, the leakage related to the inlet valve flange and the outlet valve flange, according to their location (close to the car parking lot and vehicle traffic road as well as the traffic route) people and buildings around it) is more important. The individual risk contour diagram is the result of the combination of two scenarios, inlet valve and outlet valve, which shows the amount of deaths per year within the specified limits. This means that the collective risk of the area under investigation is high. Considering the conditions in the South Pars Refinery in terms of regional weather conditions, wind speed and direction, prevailing wind direction, the location of the buildings in the station and its population distribution, we come to the conclusion that in the event of a leakage incident, the consequences It is in the form of release of flammable gas and two possible types of fire, Jet Fire and Flash Fire. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - Designing a conceptual model of human resource risks and determining control strategies. Case of study: Yazd Municipality Freight and Passenger Transportation Organization
Mona Esmailzadeh Mahdi Zarea KamaliRisks related to human resources can become an important part of business risks. Although often identified as risks resulting from non-compliance with occupational safety requirements, they can have broader and deeper impacts. Therefore, the purpose of this research i MoreRisks related to human resources can become an important part of business risks. Although often identified as risks resulting from non-compliance with occupational safety requirements, they can have broader and deeper impacts. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to design a human resource risk model and determine its control strategies in the cargo and passenger transportation organization of Yazd Municipality.The current research is mixed in nature and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. At first, the risks of human resources were identified and categorized through interviews with the experts of Yazd Municipality Cargo and Passenger Transport Organization. Then, a panel consisting of experts was formed and the conceptual model of human resources risks was designed through the structural-interpretive modeling method, and finally control solutions were presented. Through interviews with experts, 39 human resource risks were obtained in the form of 7 categories. by using the members of the expert panel, the human resources risk model was designed, which has the most impact on the organization's management issues and the risk of knowledge and skills of human resources, the risk of physical and mental health of human resources, the risk of human capital and Behavioral risk of human resources has the most effectiveness.Investigating and controlling human resource risks is very important for organizations that are interested in improving performance. For this reason, it is better for managers, policy makers and planners of the organization not to neglect the benefits of identifying and analyzing human resource risks at different levels. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - The Effect of ICT Development on Economic and Political Risk: A Cross Country Study
َAmir Hossein Mozayani Sajjad Faraji Dizaji Hossein KarimiToday, information and communication technology has influenced all areas of human life, including economics and politics. In research on the effects of information and communication technology, its effects on economic risk and political risk have not been considered so MoreToday, information and communication technology has influenced all areas of human life, including economics and politics. In research on the effects of information and communication technology, its effects on economic risk and political risk have not been considered so far. Therefore, this study has examined the effect of ICT development on economic and political risk for three selected groups of developed, developing, and OPEC countries in the period 2007- 2019. The panel data method was used to estimate the model. Based on the model estimation results for all sample countries, the deployment of information and communication technology reduces economic and political risk; But the results are different for each group. As the development of information and communication technology in selected OPEC members and developing countries increases economic risk; But in developed countries, it reduces economic risk. Also, in OPEC member countries, no significant relationship was found between ICT and political risk, and in selected developed and developing countries, ICT increases political risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
36 - Identifying and prioritizing the challenges of export insurance and guarantee system
Bagher Adabi FirouzjaeeThe risks of exporters in international markets are covered by insurance and guarantee products. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize the challenges of export insurance and guarantee of the Iran's exporters. This research is applied in MoreThe risks of exporters in international markets are covered by insurance and guarantee products. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize the challenges of export insurance and guarantee of the Iran's exporters. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of methodology. The statistical population includes two groups of exporters (current and former customers of the Export Guarantee Fund of Iran) and from each group 90 exporters are selected based on Cochran sampling Technique. Then, the challenges of customers in using export insurance and guarantee are extracted through theoretical and empirical studies as well as credit insurance experts. Furthermore, a questionnaire (consists of 34 components) is prepared and its validity and reliability is confirmed by experts and Cronbach's alpha respectively. After that a questionnaire is distributed among selected exporters and analyzed by SPSS software. The most important challenges are related to the lack of exchange rate coverage program, low capital adequacy of Iran Export Guarantee Fund, non-acceptance of documents such as project progress and product purchase contract, instability of macroeconomic variables (such as exchange rate and inflation fluctuations), policy inconsistencies between public export credit institutions (such as export Guarantee Fund Iran and the Export Development Bank of Iran), restrictions on the issuance of foreign exchange guarantees for getting loans from foreign institutions, and weak financial relations between the export Guarantee Fund Iran and export credit agencies or other international institution. Finally, some policy implication are presented in three approaches of content (such as Establishing of foreign exchange hedge system and country risk reduction via an executive plan codification), behavioral (including facilitating the issuance process of insurance and guarantee services and setting the preferential insurance premium for SMEs) and structural (such as creating a special export insurance and guarantee program for SMEs and coordinating the activities of the Export Guarantee Fund and the Export Development Bank). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
37 - From Introduction to Consumer Behavio: Investigating the Moderator Role od OLE Aesthic Risk and Percived Economic
omid behboodi Zahra Mohamadzadeh Tayebeh RamezaniThe purpose of this study is to investigate the role of intention to use electronic banking services on the actual behavior of using these services and the moderating role of economic risk and perceived aesthetics on the relationship between intention and behavior in th MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the role of intention to use electronic banking services on the actual behavior of using these services and the moderating role of economic risk and perceived aesthetics on the relationship between intention and behavior in the future bank.The descriptive research method is an applied goal,and in terms of implementation method,a descriptive survey and a questionnaire were used to collect data.In the present study,the statistical population includes customers and depositors of Ayandeh Bank who use the electronic services on the Internet of this bank. Data analysis of250 questionnaires collected from Ayandeh Bank customers in Mashhad was performed using structural equation modeling technique and PLS statistical software. The results showed that the structural model of the present study has sufficient predictive power.It was also found that the intention to use e-services affected their behavior of such services.The results showed that the perceived economic risk negatively affects consumers' intention to use the e-services of Ayandeh bank on their usage behavior.It was finally determined that perceived aesthetics risk does not affect the relationship between our sample's intention to use e-banking services' behavior.In general,the intention to use motivational factors affects the behavior of actual use of technology, and this study depicts e-banking and shows the number of efforts people are willing to make Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
38 - Liquidity Risk Prediction Using News Sentiment Analysis
hamed mirashk albadvi albadvi mehrdad kargari Mohammad Ali Rastegar Mohammad TalebiOne of the main problems of Iranian banks is the lack of risk management process with a forward-looking approach, and one of the most important risks in banks is liquidity risk. Therefore, predicting liquidity risk has become an important issue for banks. Conventional m MoreOne of the main problems of Iranian banks is the lack of risk management process with a forward-looking approach, and one of the most important risks in banks is liquidity risk. Therefore, predicting liquidity risk has become an important issue for banks. Conventional methods of measuring liquidity risk are complex, time-consuming and expensive, which makes its prediction far from possible. Predicting liquidity risk at the right time can prevent serious problems or crises in the bank. In this study, it has been tried to provide an innovative solution for predicting bank liquidity risk and leading scenarios by using the approach of news sentiment analysis. The news sentiment analysis approach about one of the Iranian banks has been used in order to identify dynamic and effective qualitative factors in liquidity risk to provide a simpler and more efficient method for predicting the liquidity risk trend. The proposed method provides practical scenarios for real-world banking risk decision makers. The obtained liquidity risk scenarios are evaluated in comparison with the scenarios occurring in the bank according to the guidelines of the Basel Committee and the opinion of banking experts to ensure the correctness of the predictions and its alignment. The result of periodically evaluating the studied scenarios indicates a relatively high accuracy. The accuracy of prediction in possible scenarios derived from the Basel Committee is 95.5% and in scenarios derived from experts' opinions, 75%. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - The Effect Of Cognitive Rehabilitation of Inhibitory Control on Hot Executive Functions: Risky Decision Making and Time Perception in Children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder
Batool Najjari Alamooti Javid Peymani Maryam Bahrami Hidaji Sheida Sodagar nahid Soomer havassiAbstract: The present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of inhibitory control cognitive rehabilitation on hot executive functions: risky decision making and time perception in children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder. The resear MoreAbstract: The present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of inhibitory control cognitive rehabilitation on hot executive functions: risky decision making and time perception in children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder. The research design was semi-experimental with a pre-test, post-test and follow-up with a control group. The statistical population includes male and female students between 7 and 12 years old in elementary schools of Tehran in the academic year 2020-2021 who were suffering from attention deficit/ hyperactiv ity disorder. Among them, 30 students were selected by purposeful sampling method and randomly placed in the experimental and control groups. The SNAP-IV Questionnaire, the Computerized Task Risk Analogue Balloon (BART) and the Time Reproduction Computer Task were used to collect information. For data analysis, using SPSS24 software, variance analysis method with repeated measurements was used. The results showed that there is difference in the perfor-mance of the experimen tal group and the control group in the components of: risky decision making and time perception for long-term intervals (P<0.05). However, compared to the control group, no significant difference was shown between the time reproduction component for short-term intervals in the experimental group. According to the results structured games aimed at enhancing interference inhibition and responding can improve hot executive functions, risky decision making and time perception (long-term intervals) in students with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
40 - Investigation of pesticide residues of Moinfos and Ethion in apple and grape and health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo Simulation
Behzad Mohammadi Khangahi Neda Sohili Maleki Lila Abbaszadeh Gholamhossein SafariThe residues of Moinfos and Ethion pesticides in 20 samples of apples and 12 samples of grapes, in two treatments, unwashed and washed, after extraction with a convenient, fast, effective, and safe analytical method (QuEChERS) were analyzed using gas chromatography and MoreThe residues of Moinfos and Ethion pesticides in 20 samples of apples and 12 samples of grapes, in two treatments, unwashed and washed, after extraction with a convenient, fast, effective, and safe analytical method (QuEChERS) were analyzed using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Also, the health risk assessment of pesticide residues in apple and grape samples was done using the hazard quotient (HQ) and based on the Monte Carlo simulation for two age groups of adults and children. The results showed that the average residue of ethion in unwashed apple and grape samples was lower than the maximum residue levels of the MRLs of Iran. While, the average residue of Moinphos in unwashed apple and grape samples was higher than the MRLs of Iran. Also, the pesticide residues of Ethion and Moinfos in 100% of the apple and grape samples were higher than the MRL of the European Union. After washing, the average residue of Moinfos and Ethion pesticides decreased by 47 and 45% in apple samples and 44 and 42% in grape samples, respectively. The results of risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulation showed that the HQ value is less than one with 100% certainty in the age groups of children and adults. Therefore, the consumption of apples and grapes with these two pesticides does not pose any significant risk to the health of consumers. However, due to the use of numerous pesticides, continuous and accurate monitoring and strict regulations regarding the quality and safety of fruits are recommended. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
41 - The effectiveness of intervention cognitive bias modification towards smoking symptoms on Risky decision making and Inhibitory control of smokers
asghar sohrabi shekafti Ali pakizeh<p>Background and Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the modification of cognitive bias towards the symptoms of smoking on risky decision making and inhibitory control in smokers. Materials and Methods: The current experimental research was conducted using a More<p>Background and Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the modification of cognitive bias towards the symptoms of smoking on risky decision making and inhibitory control in smokers. Materials and Methods: The current experimental research was conducted using a pre-test and post-test design with a control group. The statistical population of the research included the smoking employees of Bushehr city in 2019. The research sample included 40 people who were randomly divided in tow groups of 20 people, experimental and control. The members of the experimental group participated in an 8-week software to cognitive bias modification towards smoking symptoms. The data was collected by the balloon analogue risk task software، inhibitory control questionnaire and the dot exploration task software in two stages before and after the intervention, and covariance analysis was used to analyze the data. Results: The results of the research showed that the intervention aimed at modifying the cognitive bias towards the symptoms of smoking lead to a significant reduction in the risky decision making and increase the inhibitory control of the experimental group. Conclusion: Considering the effectiveness of interventions aimed at modifying cognitive bias on reducing risky decision making and increase the inhibitory control It can be used to reduce the cognitive and emotional problems of smokers.</p> Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - Risk Parity Portfolio Optimization Based on CVaR
Seyed javad Pourhoseini sayyed mohammad reza davoodi Mansour MomeniRisk parity is one of the stock portfolio selection models that has received much attention after the American financial crisis in 2008. The philosophy of this model is to allocate the risk of the portfolio to the same extent among its constituent assets. Conditional va MoreRisk parity is one of the stock portfolio selection models that has received much attention after the American financial crisis in 2008. The philosophy of this model is to allocate the risk of the portfolio to the same extent among its constituent assets. Conditional value at risk is one of the popular and common measures of risk measurement in finance, which measures the mathematical expectation of loss of a stock portfolio for values beyond a threshold value and at a known confidence level and time horizon. The aim of the current research is to design and optimize the performance of the risk parity stock portfolio model with the criterion of conditional risk value. There are different approaches in modeling optimal portfolio selection that use different criteria and methods to calculate and estimate returns and risks. Various criteria have been proposed to measure risk in finance, each of which has its own advantages and disadvantages. One of the criteria that has been introduced with the aim of reducing the disadvantages of the common and popular measure of value at risk is the conditional value at risk or expected drop, which is used as a measure of risk in the present study. Conditional value at risk measures the average loss of the portfolio for cases where the amount of loss exceeds value at risk Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
43 - Source and health risk assessment of arsenic in the water resources of Takab mining area
N. HeydarianArsenic is one of the heavy metals having harmful effects on human health if enters into the environment and water resources, so the major challenge of arsenic exposure is related to drinking water. The study area is Takab watershed in West Azarbaijan, which includes tw MoreArsenic is one of the heavy metals having harmful effects on human health if enters into the environment and water resources, so the major challenge of arsenic exposure is related to drinking water. The study area is Takab watershed in West Azarbaijan, which includes two large Zarshouran and Agh Dareh gold mines in Carlin type. Carlin gold mines are sulphidic that are able to pollute the downstream environmental resources such as arsenic. In this work, the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risks associated with arsenic was evaluated for the human community, who are living in Takab watershed and are exposed to arsenic through oral and dermal pathways with contaminated water sources . 45 water samples were randomly collected from surface and groundwater resources in the study area with regard to expert judgment and the distribution points, analyzed by ICP-MS method. Then, the health risk was assessed using by target cancer risk (TR), risk coefficient (HQ) and index hazard (HI). The total results showed that arsenic contamination is derived from volcanic activities and Quaternary alteration and gold mining activities in the east and north of the region. Most of the samples were revealed a range of 9-10 and -100 to -250 mV as pH and oxidation-reduction potential, respectively, which indicates the predominance of arsenate species (As5+) in the form of H2AsO4-. HQ and HI values are more than 10 in 52% of the samples, which indicate the high health risk in people living in the study area. Carcinogenic risk level varies from 0 to 2×10-7, which shows no carcinogenic risk to very high risk by arsenic contamination in water resources. Overall, there are both risks of carcinogenesis and non-cancerous impact in the east and north of the region for intake by ingestion, drinking and skin contact due to water contamination from the natural and anthropogenic sources. Therefore, it is recommended to pay special attention to continuous monitoring for potential contaminant, different methods for preventing exposure to polluted water resources and treatment methods in order to minimize the health risk of the population. Manuscript profile
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