Designing an expert system for risk assessment in exploration & development oil and gas fields
Subject Areas :
Hamidreza Vazirigohar
1
,
Javad Akhlaghi
2
1 - Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Payam Noor University
2 - Technical manager of a private company related to oil and gas exploration studies
Keywords: Expert Systems, Exploration and Development Risk, Oil and Gas Fields.,
Abstract :
In order to assess the risk of exploration and development of oil and gas fields, which is mentioned as one of the most important determining parameters in the economic development of oil- countries, an expert system using the inference fuzzy system approach was designed. First, the system inputs, which are in fact the characteristics of risk assessment for the exploration and development of oil and gas fields, were extracted. In continuation, the knowledge base of the system, the most important part of which is considered to be in the form of if-then rules and based on the opinions of experts in the upstream part of the oil industry. To do this, the degree of system accuracy is measured in two stages based on expert comments. Based on the Likert scale and presenting a questionnaire to the experts, Student's t-test was performed and out of 48 defined indicators, 42 indicators were selected as the final index. In the next step, the data validation of an oil field in the south of the country was provided to the oil industry experts and they were asked to evaluate the output of the system. Finally, the opinions of experts were compared with the output of the expert system and based on the criterion of mean square error (MSE) and a small difference between the average opinion of experts and the output of the system, it was determined that the designed expert system has sufficient accuracy and validity for future studies.
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