Uncertainty

Open Access Article

1 - A method for clustering customers using RFM model and grey numbers in terms of uncertainty
azime mozafari

The purpose of this study is presentation a method for clustering bank customers based on RFM model in terms of uncertainty. According to the proposed framework in this study after determination the parameter values of the RFM model, including recently exchange (R), fre More

The purpose of this study is presentation a method for clustering bank customers based on RFM model in terms of uncertainty. According to the proposed framework in this study after determination the parameter values of the RFM model, including recently exchange (R), frequency exchange (F), and monetary value of the exchange (M), grey theory is used to eliminate the uncertainty and customers are segmented using a different approach. Thus, bank customers are clustered to three main segments called good, ordinary and bad customers. After cluster validation using Dunn index and Davis Bouldin index, properties of customers are detected in any of the segments. Finally, recommendations are offered to improve customer relationship management system. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

2 - Provide a method for customer segmentation using the RFM model in conditions of uncertainty
mohammadreza gholamian azime mozafari

The purpose of this study is to provide a method for customer segmentation of a private bank in Shiraz based on the RFM model in the face of uncertainty about customer data. In the proposed framework of this study, first, the values of RFM model indicators including e More

The purpose of this study is to provide a method for customer segmentation of a private bank in Shiraz based on the RFM model in the face of uncertainty about customer data. In the proposed framework of this study, first, the values of RFM model indicators including exchange novelty (R), number of exchanges (F) and monetary value of exchange (M) were extracted from the customer database and preprocessed. Given the breadth of the data, it is not possible to determine the exact number to determine whether the customer is good or bad; Therefore, to eliminate this uncertainty, the gray number theory was used, which considers the customer's situation as a range. In this way, using a different method, the bank's customers were segmented, which according to the results, customers were divided into three main sections or clusters as good, normal and bad customers. After validating the clusters using Don and Davis Boldin indicators, customer characteristics in each sector were identified and at the end, suggestions were made to improve the customer relationship management system. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - Uncertainty analysis of parameters for simulating river flow using GLUE method for a coupled land surface- hydrology model
Maryam Shafiei Javad Bazrafshan Parviz Irannejad

In recent years, the determination of the uncertainty of hydrological models in the hydrological research has been very much taken into consideration. Although the parameters of the hydrological model are usually determined by calibration, but there is considerable unce More

In recent years, the determination of the uncertainty of hydrological models in the hydrological research has been very much taken into consideration. Although the parameters of the hydrological model are usually determined by calibration, but there is considerable uncertainty in the model parameters. In this study, with the aim of calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled model ALSIS-HBV, GLUE method has been used in the Karkheh basin. Determining the main source of uncertainty and identification of parameters, as well as estimating uncertainty in the results of river flow simulation are other goals of this research. The findings show that K2, Fcap, MaxBas, lp, B, degw and ttlim parameters are main sources of river flow uncertainty, and the parameters K2, Fcap, B, lp and perc are the most identifiable parameters. In general, the model's performance evaluation for river flow simulation in karkheh basin, especially in calibration period is good and acceptable, and most river flow observations are in 95% confidence intervals, Therefore, the probability distribution calculated from the river flow can be used to predict the flow of the river. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - Nonlinear State Estimation Using Hybrid Robust Cubature Kalman Filter
Behrooz Safarinejadian Mohsen Taher

10.7508/jist.2016.02.005

In this paper, a novel filter is provided that estimates the states of any nonlinear system, both in the presence and absence of uncertainty with high accuracy. It is well understood that a robust filter design is a compromise between the robustness and the estimation a More

In this paper, a novel filter is provided that estimates the states of any nonlinear system, both in the presence and absence of uncertainty with high accuracy. It is well understood that a robust filter design is a compromise between the robustness and the estimation accuracy. In fact, a robust filter is designed to obtain an accurate and suitable performance in presence of modelling errors.So in the absence of any unknown or time-varying uncertainties, the robust filter does not provide the desired performance. The new method provided in this paper, which is named hybrid robust cubature Kalman filter (CKF), is constructed by combining a traditional CKF and a novel robust CKF. The novel robust CKF is designed by merging a traditional CKF with an uncertainty estimator so that it can provide the desired performance in the presence of uncertainty. Since the presence of uncertainty results in a large innovation value, the hybrid robust CKF adapts itself according to the value of the normalized innovation. The CKF and robust CKF filters are run in parallel and at any time, a suitable decision is taken to choose the estimated state of either the CKF or the robust CKF as the final state estimation. To validate the performance of the proposed filters, two examples are given that demonstrate their promising performance. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - Using Decision Lattice Analysis to Model IOT-based Companies’ profit
Nazanin Talebolfakhr Seyed Babak Ebrahimi Donya Rahmani

10.29252/jist.8.32.230

Demand uncertainty and high initial investments for IOT-based projects lead to analyzing various types of options, especially real options in project execution to decrease these uncertainties. In this study, we investigate the firms’ expected profits that resulted from More

Demand uncertainty and high initial investments for IOT-based projects lead to analyzing various types of options, especially real options in project execution to decrease these uncertainties. In this study, we investigate the firms’ expected profits that resulted from appropriate chosen static and dynamic pricing strategies namely low-pricing, high-pricing, and contingent pricing combined with binomial decision lattices. Besides, the reciprocal influence between pricing strategies and IOT investment could provide useful insights for the firms that confront demand uncertainties in selling the firms’ products. We propose a model which is the integration of binomial decision lattices, which have been calculated by Real Option Super Lattice Solver 2017 software, and pricing policies under uncertainty. The results provide insights into what pricing strategies to choose based on the project’s real option value and the level of the firm uncertainty about the purchasing of the high-value consumer. Among the mentioned static and dynamic pricing strategies, high-pricing and contingent pricing strategies under different situations can be selected and expected profits of each of the strategies will be calculated and compared with each other. On the contrary, as the low-pricing strategy resulted in the lowest option value, it will not be scrutinized in this study. Experimental results show that if the IOT investment level and high-value consumer purchasing likelihood are high, the firm will implement the high-pricing strategy, otherwise choosing the contingent pricing due to the demand uncertainty would be appropriate. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

6 - A Decision Support System based on Rough sets for Enterprise Planning under uncertainty
سید امیرهادی مینوفام Hassan Rashidi

Increasing rate of novice technology in global marketing arises some challenges in the economic enterprise planning. One of the appropriate approaches to resolve these challenges is using rough set theory along with decision making. In this paper, a decision support sys More

Increasing rate of novice technology in global marketing arises some challenges in the economic enterprise planning. One of the appropriate approaches to resolve these challenges is using rough set theory along with decision making. In this paper, a decision support system with an algorithm based on rough set theory is provided. The proposed algorithm is implemented for a product line in one of the organizations under supervision of mining, industry and trade ministry. The variable effects on the enterpise aims are evaluated by analysing the strength and support criteria of rough sets. The rules are classeified as three different classes and 3 out of 12 have high reasonable averagewhie the last 3 have a relatively high violation probability. The other rules have heterogenious distribution and are not certain. The advantages of the proposed system are avoidance of enterprse capital wasting, prevention of errors due to data uncertainty, and high precision of decitions. The decision makers in the enterprise validated the increasment of simplicity and speeds of vital decision making by using the proposed system. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Ranking Knowledge Based Companies in Incubators by EFQM Indicators
Meysam Jafari Eskandari Alireza Ali Ahmadi Gholamhosein Khaleghi Mohammad Hasan Kamfirouzy

Today performance evaluation is counted as one of the important and major process in organizations. Companies allocate some resources annually for this work. Performance evaluation in strategic planning process plays a key role, first: for environmental analysis and sec More

Today performance evaluation is counted as one of the important and major process in organizations. Companies allocate some resources annually for this work. Performance evaluation in strategic planning process plays a key role, first: for environmental analysis and second: as feedback at the end of plan for correction. In this paper we decide to rank some knowledge based companies in one of the incubators based on EFQM indicators. This will be done by multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods. The purposed method can deal with uncertainty well. Besides, using Game theory will make this model more flexible. Based on this, we try to control the environmental uncertainty with use of Grey time series and cooperative games and based on Frequentist school approach. Therefore we gathered expert's opinion at six time periods based on three parameter interval Grey numbers and we obtained the parameters of decision table within weighting to every time period by cooperative games. The used criteria are the criteria which are introduced in EFQM model. Then we rank companies with implementation of combination of Bulls-eye weighting method and Grey-numerical taxonomy method. In this ranking, companies, No. 1, 3 and 2 gained first, second and third rank by order which their Fi were 0.389, 0.463 and 0.523 by order. Also results of social and processes are known as the vital criteria by weights 0.161 and 0.153 orderly. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

8 - Identify and Prioritize the Factors Affecting the Success of Knowledge-Based Industries
Hamzeh Amin-Tahmasbi Mahsa Hami

10.7508/jstpi.2018.04.008

One of the tools for knowledge management is the creation of knowledge-based companies that play a very important role in the countries’ economic development. In fact, a knowledge-based company is a private or cooperative company or institution whose purpose is to creat More

One of the tools for knowledge management is the creation of knowledge-based companies that play a very important role in the countries’ economic development. In fact, a knowledge-based company is a private or cooperative company or institution whose purpose is to create and expand the combination of science and wealth and the development of a knowledge-based economy, which result is the creation of wealth and the development of the economy through the expansion and application of invention and innovation through the commercialization of research and development activities. Given the importance and impact of knowledge-based industries in the current economy, this study will identify and prioritize factors affecting the success of these industries. In order to identify these factors, literature and current research were collected and written. Then, by distributing the questionnaire among the managers and experts of the companies present in the science and technology park of Guilan province, the most important factors were identified. In the next step, according to the obtained information, another questionnaire was developed that measured the criteria by using a pair comparison. DEMATEL method has been used to rank the identified factors, and due to the uncertainty in experts' opinions, evaluation is done in a fuzzy environment. As a result of the evaluation, it was found that environmental factors play the most important role in the growth and development of knowledge-based companies. Among the sub-criteria of environmental factors, government policies, tax exemptions and customs were identified as the most effective factors in the success of knowledge-based companies. Therefore, it is imperative that the senior decision makers provide incentives and regulations to create a suitable business environment. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

9 - Moderating effect of uncertainty at the workplace at relationship between role ambiguity and physical and psychological violence in workplace
نرگس السادات مرتضوی hamidreza oreyzi

The purpose of this study was to investigate moderating effect of uncertainty at the workplace at relationship between role ambiguity and physical and psychological violence in the workplace. The researchers and authors believed that role ambiguity results from a lack o More

The purpose of this study was to investigate moderating effect of uncertainty at the workplace at relationship between role ambiguity and physical and psychological violence in the workplace. The researchers and authors believed that role ambiguity results from a lack of information and therefore missing clarity in a specific job position that leads to be employee's uncertain at the workplace. Uncertainty at the workplace is the most important determinant of job stress that can lead to role ambiguity, decreased employee's job satisfaction, physical and psychological violence and thus reduce the efficiency. The current study is of the correlational studies and Participants in this study were 279 employees of Iran's Polyacryl Company that Sample Available were selected. The instruments used included the Uncertainty at the workplace scale, Role ambiguity scale and physical and psychological violence Questionnaire(Menard & Met al ,2011). Data was analyzed using the hierarchical regression and moderate analysis. The findings indicated that, their physical and psychological violence increases, when uncertainty at the workplace is high. Also moderating effect of uncertainty at the workplace at relationship between Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

10 - Moderating Effect of Uncertainty at the Workplace at Relationship between Role Ambiguity and Physical and Psychological Violence
Nargessadat Mortazavi hamidreza oreyzi

The purpose of this study was to investigate the moderating effect of uncertainty at the workplace in relationship between role ambiguity and physical and psychological violence in the workplace. The method of this study is cross-sectional and participants in this study More

The purpose of this study was to investigate the moderating effect of uncertainty at the workplace in relationship between role ambiguity and physical and psychological violence in the workplace. The method of this study is cross-sectional and participants in this study were 279 employees of Iran’s Polyacryl Company selected using convenient sampling. The instruments used including the Uncertainty at the Workplace Scale, Role Ambiguity Scale, and Physical and Psychological Violence Questionnaire (Menard & Met al ,2011). Data was analyzed using the hierarchical regression and moderate analysis. The findings indicated that participants, physical and psychological violence increased, when uncertainty at the workplace was high. Also moderating effect of uncertainty at the workplace in relationship between role ambiguity and physical and psychological violence in the workplace was confirmed. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

11 - The relationship between self-compassion and emotion regulation through the role of experiential avoidance and intolerance of uncertaintys
Najmeh Salarhaji Mohammad Ali Goodarzi Mohammad Reza Taghavi

Based on the transdiagnostic approach, various variables have been introduced and found, however, their relationships and interactions are still questionable. The four important and effective transdiagnostic factors introduced in researches are emotion regulation, exper More

Based on the transdiagnostic approach, various variables have been introduced and found, however, their relationships and interactions are still questionable. The four important and effective transdiagnostic factors introduced in researches are emotion regulation, experiential avoidance, intolerance of uncertainty, and self-compassion. The aim of the present study was to investigate the mediating role of experiential avoidance and intolerance of uncertainty in the relationship between self-compassion, and emotion regulation difficulties in students. This research was in the form of modeling of various correlation methods. For this purpose, 405 students of Shiraz University present in the second semester of 2018-2019 year were enrolled by multistage cluster random sampling. Participants, then, completed the Short Form of Self-Compassion Scale (SCS-SF), the Acceptance and Action Questionnaire–II (AAQ-II), the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS), and the Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale (DERS). Data analysis was performed by structural equation modeling, using AMOS software. The path analysis method showed that self-compassion predicted emotion regulation both directly and indirectly through intolerance of uncertainty and experiential avoidance. Therefore, it can be concluded that self-compassion enables individuals for confrontation to their experience and enhance uncertainty tolerance to help them manage their emotions. Accordingly it is important to pay attention to the changes of these two variables in self-compassion-based interventions to regulate and manage emotions. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

12 - Estimation of Risk and Uncertainty in the Iran’s Labor Market
دليري daler

Occupational concern is one of the most important problems that ever exists. Iran's economy has always faced fluctuations in unemployment and employment rates. In recent years, labor market uncertainty has increased. The main reasons for this increase are as follows: C More

Occupational concern is one of the most important problems that ever exists. Iran's economy has always faced fluctuations in unemployment and employment rates. In recent years, labor market uncertainty has increased. The main reasons for this increase are as follows: Changes in the structure of the economy, the entry of the 60s into the labor market, Reduce labor demand and intensify the recession, this study measured the uncertainty and occupational risk of various categories of sex and geography in the period 1384-1393 using time series data from the labor market. According to the results, labor market uncertainty has been at a low level for most of the categories. In such a way, the certainty of the labor market in the period of 1384-1389 was descending but then increasing. In addition, in recent years urban and rural women have had higher levels of uncertainty than men and women in the Iran. Also, job uncertainty in villages has been more than cities. The study of job insecurity in Iranian provinces also shows that men in the provinces of East Azarbaijan, Golestan and Hormozgan and women in the provinces of East Azarbaijan, Khorasan Razavi and Guilan have the highest level of job uncertainty compared to other provinces Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

13 - Supplier selection with the approach of combining Fuzzy Delphi Analytic Hierarchy Process (FDAHP) and Grey VIKOR methods
Mohammad Mahdi Mozaffari

The supplier selection is one of the most important issues in supply chain management discipline and it is regarded as an effective factor for companies to survive in the competitive environment. Selecting the best supplier among various suppliers, considering a mixture More

The supplier selection is one of the most important issues in supply chain management discipline and it is regarded as an effective factor for companies to survive in the competitive environment. Selecting the best supplier among various suppliers, considering a mixture of criteria that are sometimes in conflict, makes it a complicated multi-criteria decision making problem. On the other hand, supplier selection is highly dependent on the assessments of decision makers and according to the environmental dynamics and incomplete information available to decision makers, they are faced with some uncertainty in their assessments. The purpose of this paper is to present a model of multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty by using concepts of fuzzy and grey theories in order to select the optimal supplier. In this research, first, the weights of supplier selection criteria are determined by using fuzzy Delphi and analytic hierarchy process, then suppliers are ranked by using Grey VIKOR which is a newly developed approach in the field of multi-criteria decision making under uncertainty Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

14 - The impact of demand management policies uncertainty on capital market output (A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange)

Abstract: The present study aimed to investigate the impact of demand management policies uncertainty on Tehran Stock Exchange output. The uncertainty in money supply and government expenses variables on stock exchange output has been studied using monthly data over th More

Abstract: The present study aimed to investigate the impact of demand management policies uncertainty on Tehran Stock Exchange output. The uncertainty in money supply and government expenses variables on stock exchange output has been studied using monthly data over the period of 1387-1392. The results indicated that money supply variable has the problem of uncertainty while government expenses don't. The results of MSEGARCH model on money supply variable showed that uncertainty in money supply variable in both high and low volatility has a significant negative impact on stock exchange output. The results of MS-VAR model represent the fact that government expenses have a significant impact on stock exchange index in both upswing and stagnation phases. Accordingly, it is observed that the uncertainty in demand management policies is influencing stock exchange output and these influences are in conflict with each other, so it is suggested that the government managers and policy makers (government expenses) and Central bank (money supply) implement the policies with more coordination in order to decrease the amount of these conflicting impacts. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

15 - Analyzing the effectiveness and ranking engineering changes for complex engineered systems viability improvement
مالک طهوری جعفر قیدرخلجانی Mohammad Hussein Karimi gavareshki

Viability is one of the non-functional requirements in the complex engineered systems literature which is uses for assessing the ability of complex engineered systems under uncertainty. Usually in the earlier phase of systems design and development, systems stakeholders More

Viability is one of the non-functional requirements in the complex engineered systems literature which is uses for assessing the ability of complex engineered systems under uncertainty. Usually in the earlier phase of systems design and development, systems stakeholders have the request for increased value of viability and for this mean, system engineers propose several engineering changes. The main problem here is the lack of a method for analyzing the effectiveness of these engineering changes and also ranking them based on different criteria such as cost, time and risk. For promoting this gap, in this paper we propose a 11 step model for analyzing the effectiveness and also ranking the engineering changes for increasing systems viability with the use of Monte Carlo and Electre methods. The applicability of the model is shown by using illustrative example of space system datas Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

16 - Identifying the key factors affecting construction project portfolios combination in iran
maryam ameli basiri Reza falsafi ehsan eshtehardian

The current competitive and turbulent construction situation in Iran, which has a low degree of stability, has made project-based organizations encounter with a variety of unforeseen which can occur during the life of project portfolios and disrupt their performance. Ho More

The current competitive and turbulent construction situation in Iran, which has a low degree of stability, has made project-based organizations encounter with a variety of unforeseen which can occur during the life of project portfolios and disrupt their performance. However, researchers in the field of portfolio management have more focused on portfolio defining processes, including project selection, prioritization and balancing, and have less considered the uncertainties which affect the portfolio expected results, eliminate strategic alignment of the portfolio components and also portolio combination optimization. In this study, by using the literature review and qualitative content analysis method, at first we explored these factors and prioritized them with the help of inferential statistics, and then identified the most important ones from the perspective of experts in this field Based on paretto analysis. According to the findings of the research, most important factors are: change in business strategy, change in the accessibility of portfolio capital and its financing, change in economic conditions, change in the profitability and financial value of the portfolio projects and change in political conditions. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

17 - Portfolio Selection under Trading Constraints and Data Uncertainty Using Robust Optimization Approach and NSGA-II Algorithm
Pejman Peykani Alireza Jandaghian

Portfolio is a collection or combination of investments in financial and non-financial assets that may be carried out by an individual or organization. How to select and optimize of portfolio is very important. One of the most important points that should be considered More

Portfolio is a collection or combination of investments in financial and non-financial assets that may be carried out by an individual or organization. How to select and optimize of portfolio is very important. One of the most important points that should be considered in the proposed approach for portfolio selection, is uncertainty. Because, one of the most important features of financial markets is their uncertainty. Thus, the purpose of this study is to present a bi-objective model for portfolio selection that is capable to be used under uncertainty of financial data and for this purpose, a robust optimization approach has been used. It should be noted that return and conditional value at risk (CVaR) are considered as model objectives, and the constraints of the number of shares and the purchasing volume of each share have been added to the model. Also, due to the complexity of the proposed model, a NSGA-II meta-heuristic algorithm has been used to solve the suggested model of research. Finally, the presented model was solved by using the actual data of 200 stocks of Tehran stock market for the period of 2017 and the results were analyzed. The results indicate the efficiency of the proposed approach portfolio selection according to the investor's preferences and constraints under uncertainty of financial data. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

18 - Multiple objective optimization for assigning students of public high schools to private high schools in uncertainty condition (case study: mallard region
Ahmad Makui Seyedeh Sara Ghasemi

Nowadays, choosing the most effective and optimum strategy for selecting and assigning students to the target schools due to its great impact on the quality and quantity of education is one of the important concerns of the educational institution. In this regard, it is More

Nowadays, choosing the most effective and optimum strategy for selecting and assigning students to the target schools due to its great impact on the quality and quantity of education is one of the important concerns of the educational institution. In this regard, it is necessary to determine the appropriate criteria for appropriate selection of students, taking into account the standards and educational needs of students. In this research, from the perspective of the academic level, the student-to-school distance and the ideal planning approach, a decision-making model with distinct goals for selecting and assigning students to nonprofit and governmental schools is presented. According to the proposed method, firstly, the assessment of the students is carried out in relation to the schools in the target area, with two approaches of distance between the student and the target school and the academic level correspondence. The results of these assessment, based on the new and applied BWM, determining the weight of the academic level and the distance to the school by each student toward the school. In the next step, based on the level of science weights and the distance between each student and school, ideal planning modelling is revised for each student. In this case, the specified weights are the main inputs and the required ideal constraints are also considered. Finally, by solving the proposed model, the optimal assignment of students to each of the schools is done. After the students have been assigned to the target schools, we may encounter lack of capacity in some schools. In this case, by providing a flowchart, the way of students’ relocation to the standard capacity for all schools is explained. Also, due to the implementation of the proposed research methodology for allocating students to the schools belonging to the "Mallard" region, and conducting relevant evaluations and calculations, the sensitivity analysis has also been done. The final results of the sensitivity analysis of the proposed model indicate that the lack of consideration of the academic level approach causes changes in selection and allocation of students to schools. Therefore, the academic level should be taken into account in assessments related to the allocation of students to schools. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

19 - Distributed Generation Sources Placement in Electric Power Distribution Networks under Uncertainty
H. Falaghi M. Parsa-Moghaddam

This paper presents a new multiobjective model for optimal placement of distributed generation sources in electric distribution network under load and market price uncertainties that finds out the non-dominated multiobjective solutions corresponding to the simultaneous More

This paper presents a new multiobjective model for optimal placement of distributed generation sources in electric distribution network under load and market price uncertainties that finds out the non-dominated multiobjective solutions corresponding to the simultaneous minimization of economic cost, technical risks, and economical risk due to uncertainties. Fuzzy sets theory is used to model the uncertainties. The proposed model is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm as the optimization tool. The performance of the proposed approach is assessed and appreciated by case study on a typical distribution network. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

20 - Optimal Location for Distributed Generation Based on Uuncertain Data
H. Goodarzi

The purpose of this paper is optimal location of distributed generation in electric distribution networks. Load uncertainty and desired voltage range has been modeled using fuzzy data theory. The objective function includes loss reduction, improvement of profile index a More

The purpose of this paper is optimal location of distributed generation in electric distribution networks. Load uncertainty and desired voltage range has been modeled using fuzzy data theory. The objective function includes loss reduction, improvement of profile index and voltage stability index with their relevant constraints, voltage constraints and transmittable power from the line. Load variation has been shown for three different time durations (peak, off peak and average).PSO technique has been used to optimize the objective function while Max-Min method has been applied to select the answer. Results produced from the proposed model have been provided in 5 different scenarios on a 33 bus system of IEEE. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

21 - The Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis and Coordinate Tuning of PSSs and TCSC in the Power System with Considering the Wind Farm Generation Uncertainty
H. Ahmadi H. Seifi

With the decreasing of the fossil fuels and increasing of the environmental pollution, using of renewable energy resources is growing rapidly. On the other hand, the restructured electricity industry causes to cooperation of the distributed generation resources in the c More

With the decreasing of the fossil fuels and increasing of the environmental pollution, using of renewable energy resources is growing rapidly. On the other hand, the restructured electricity industry causes to cooperation of the distributed generation resources in the competitive electricity market. In such situation, the presence of the wind farms in the power system in order to provide the system loads is quite favorable. However, wind farm generation depends on the wind speed and the uncertainty in the generation cause to some concerns about the connection and operation of the power system. So, in this paper, a probabilistic approach for small signal stability analysis with considering the wind farm generation uncertainty based on PCM method is proposed. The PCM method is based on the orthogonal polynomials which provide a linear model for desired output. The continuous changes of the wind farm generation level cause to variation on the operating point that the control equipment parameters should be adjusted based on the new operation conditions. Therefore, genetic algorithm and the approximate models which are obtained from the PCM method are used. In order to validate the proposed method, the IEEE 10-machine and IEEE 16-machine test system are used. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

22 - Modeling, Assessment and Improvement of Demand and Supply Side Uncertainties in Long-term Dynamics of Power Markets
E. Khorram H. Seifi Mohammad Kazem Sheikh El Eslami

In this paper, the long-term dynamics of an electricity market is modeled, considering the load uncertainty. Moreover, the generation side uncertainties, including the uncertainties of the generators availabilities, the hydro generations and the wind generations are obs More

In this paper, the long-term dynamics of an electricity market is modeled, considering the load uncertainty. Moreover, the generation side uncertainties, including the uncertainties of the generators availabilities, the hydro generations and the wind generations are observed. The problem is analyzed by the System Dynamics (SD) method. Also, the effects of capacity payment on power market dynamics, with and without uncertainties, are modeled and analyzed. The simulation results show how the uncertainties may affect the long-term behavior of a power market. Moreover, it is shown how the effect of uncertainties on market dynamics, may be improved through capacity payment. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

23 - Designing an Adaptive Sliding-Mode Controller for Car Active Suspension System Using an Optimal logarithmic Sliding Surface
S. A. Zahiripour R. Tafaghodi A. A. Jalali S. K. Mousavi Mashhadi

In this paper, a quarter car active suspension system with a hydraulic actuator, has been controlled by sliding mode coupled with an adaptive approach. To deal with all kinds of uncertainty arising from the effect of external perturbation or the any nonlinear behavior s More

In this paper, a quarter car active suspension system with a hydraulic actuator, has been controlled by sliding mode coupled with an adaptive approach. To deal with all kinds of uncertainty arising from the effect of external perturbation or the any nonlinear behavior system, sliding mode control has been used. In the proposed method the sliding surface, by using an optimal strategy to minimize the optimal cost function is derived, so the result is a logarithmic sliding surface. Adaptive algorithms proposed in this paper because of the nonlinear variability by time and not bounded uncertainty in the system. While the effects of parameter uncertainties and external disturbances to system performance have been dramatically reduced, the stability of control system proves based on the Lyapanof theory. The proposed control method has been done on a quarter car active suspension system with a hydraulic actuator. Simulation results of the proposed method show that the activation of suspension system by the proposed method increases its performance compare with the passive suspension system. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

24 - Placement of AVRs and Reconfiguration of Distribution Networks Simultaneously and Robust Considering Load Uncertainty
M. R. Shakarami Y. Mohammadi Pour

: In this paper, optimal locating for AVRs and reconfiguration of distribution networks were assessed simultaneously as an optimization problem. A new objective function was introducing which incorporated several electrical indices including real power losses, reactive More

: In this paper, optimal locating for AVRs and reconfiguration of distribution networks were assessed simultaneously as an optimization problem. A new objective function was introducing which incorporated several electrical indices including real power losses, reactive power losses, reliability, voltage profile, voltage stability, and load capacity of lines (MVA). Various load levels were incorporated into the objective function to make sure that switch status in reconfiguration and AVR taps and locations would be robust against load variations. This paper also introduced a new method for calculating the load levels with respect to load uncertainty. It also considered all loads based on a voltage-dependent model. Several scenarios are defined to thoroughly assess the proposed approach. Integer particle swarm optimization algorithm (IPSO) was used to solve the mentioned optimization problem. The results obtained by the simulation of 33-bus and 69-bus standard IEEE .radial power distribution networks demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed approach Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

25 - How to Identify Requirements under Uncertainty for Self-Adaptive Software Systems Development
R. Moeinfar Ahmad Abdollahzadeh Barforoush S. M. Hashemi

One key challenge in software systems development is changing requirements at development phases or run-time. This might happen as the result of uncertainty in stakeholder requirements. Uncertain requirements drive a flexible and therefore adaptable architecture to mana More

One key challenge in software systems development is changing requirements at development phases or run-time. This might happen as the result of uncertainty in stakeholder requirements. Uncertain requirements drive a flexible and therefore adaptable architecture to manage risks at run-time. Modeling uncertainty to adapt architecture automatically is an effective solution when requirements change. In order to evaluate requirements and handle uncertainty by modeling and self-managing, it is advantageous to quantify requirements, computationally. This study besides understanding the sources of uncertainty, investigates how to quantify requirements and quality attributes. Subsequently, decision making at all software development phases will be based on numerical analysis that leads to autonomic software development. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

26 - Design of a New Observer for Unknown and Variable Input Time-Delay Estimation in Linear SISO Systems
Hadi Chahkandi Nejad mohsen Farshad Ramazan Havangi

In this paper, a novel observer is designed for online time delay estimation, in SISO linear systems, with variable and unknown time-delay in control input. It is clear that Laplace transfer function of a delayed system includes a time-delay operator (exponential and no More

In this paper, a novel observer is designed for online time delay estimation, in SISO linear systems, with variable and unknown time-delay in control input. It is clear that Laplace transfer function of a delayed system includes a time-delay operator (exponential and non-rational). In this article, it is assumed that the only unknown and variable parameter in the system is the system’s time-delay. For designing the proposed observer, first, a Pade approximation is used for exponential operator of time delay to rationalize the system transfer function. Therefore, the new transfer function, which is an approximation of the main transfer function of the system, will include a time-variant delay parameter. After rewriting a state space realization of the mentioned transfer function and considering time delay parameter as an extra state variable, a system with nonlinear state equations will be formed. Eventually, using a Kalman filter, the systems states, such as system time-delay, are estimated. Finally, simulations results show rather desirable performance of the proposed estimator in dealing with unknown and variable time-delays. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

27 - Preventive and Probabilistic-Possibilistic Scheduling of Microgrid against the Natural Phenomena in the Presence of Electric Vehicles
Amirhossein Nasri A. Abdollahi M. Rashidinejad

This paper proposes a preventive and probabilistic–possibilistic framework for day-ahead scheduling of Electric Vehicles (EVs) parking lot and distributed generation in a microgrid. The suggested scheduling is performed in normal and emergency conditions when a natural More

This paper proposes a preventive and probabilistic–possibilistic framework for day-ahead scheduling of Electric Vehicles (EVs) parking lot and distributed generation in a microgrid. The suggested scheduling is performed in normal and emergency conditions when a natural phenomenon appears and the microgrid is disconnected from the upstream network. Furthermore, the uncertainty of EVs number in a parking lot is considered by Z-number as a probabilistic-possibilistic model. Moreover, the uncertainties of photovoltaic units generation, wind turbine output power, market price, and load demand are modeled by Monte Carlo as a probabilistic method. Furthermore, natural phenomena occurrences are modeled by considering multifarious scenarios according to when the phenomenon unfolds and how much it takes. In the suggested framework, the operation of parking lots is based on the uncertainty and EVs charging/discharging schedule. The operational cost in normal condition and load shedding cost in addition to operational cost are considered as the objective functions of the proposed structure. To evaluate the performance of the suggested structure, the modified 33-bus IEEE distribution network is employed. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

28 - Cautious Classification of Hyper Rectangular, Hyper Circular, and Hyper Oval with a Maximum Symmetric Margin Relative to the Data Edge
Yahya Forghani M. Hejazi H. Sadoghi Yazdi

A robust classification model is a non-standard model for classifying learning based on an uncertain data set. An incautious model is said to have any meaningless answer to any classification model in its possible set of possible solutions. The optimal answer for a caut More

A robust classification model is a non-standard model for classifying learning based on an uncertain data set. An incautious model is said to have any meaningless answer to any classification model in its possible set of possible solutions. The optimal answer for a cautious robust classification model for a training data set may not be the hyper-page, in which case it will not be possible to classify the data at the test stage. In this paper, incautious robust classification models are introduced and their problems are investigated and then by changing the loss function of a robust classifier, a cautious robust classification model is presented to prevent incautious. The proposed cautious model is standardized and solutions are provided to reduce the training time and test time. In the experiments, the proposed model was compared with some incautious robust models to classification incomplete training data set, and complete definitive training data set. The results showed that in the incomplete data set, the proposed model had less training time and error rate than incautious models. Also, in the complete definitive data set, the proposed model training time and test time were less than incautious models. The results approved that adding caution to a robust classifier is efficient. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

29 - Reactive Power Compensation using optimal capacitor allocation in the Distribution Network in the Presence of Wind Power Plant Based on Information Gap Decision Theory
M. Ramezani mahboobeh etemadizadeh

The presence of uncertain parameters in the power system has created many challenges for designers andoperators of the system including the problem of capacitors in the presence of wind power plants. The answer depends on the amount of load and output power of the wind More

The presence of uncertain parameters in the power system has created many challenges for designers andoperators of the system including the problem of capacitors in the presence of wind power plants. The answer depends on the amount of load and output power of the wind power plant that has uncertain values. In this paper, the information gap based decision theory method is used model the uncertainty in load and output power of the wind power plant. The objective function includes the cost of capacitive banks and energy losses, used to of load Flow based on unscented transformation for calculate energy losses. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize the above problem. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed method has been investigated by carrying out numerical studies on the IEEE 33-bus network. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

30 - Optimal Placement of Energy Storage Systems Taking into Account the Uncertainties of Renewable Energy Generation, Load and Electricity Prices
NAVID TAGHIZADEGAN KALANTARI Yousef Fonooni Morteza Ahangari Hassas

One of the main goals of distribution network operators is to reduce the cost of operating the network and improve profit. In this paper, the problem of siting and determining the size of energy storage batteries are studied. The constituent components of the objective More

One of the main goals of distribution network operators is to reduce the cost of operating the network and improve profit. In this paper, the problem of siting and determining the size of energy storage batteries are studied. The constituent components of the objective function of the placement problem include the profit from the operation of the distributed generation unit, the profit from the reduction of grid power losses, the cost of installing an energy storage system, and the profit from the reduction of energy purchased from the upstream network. The model used for positioning is based on the probabilistic behavior of solar radiation, energy consumers, and electricity market operators. To model the stochastic nature of the output power of solar power plants, the probability density function has been used, and to model the load and price of electricity, the scenario method has been used. The simulations were performed using MATLAB software. The proposed method can manage the generation of solar power plants using the siting and management of charge and discharge of batteries. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

31 - Optimal Robust Controller Design for the Electrical Vehicle Charging Process in the Presence of Uncertainty
mahsa karami roohollah barzamini reza sharifi

Wireless power transmission technology with titles such as contactless power transmission, magnetic coupling power transfer, etc.are known and in fact, this method safely and reliably transmits power in such a way that does not require a mechanical connection between th More

Wireless power transmission technology with titles such as contactless power transmission, magnetic coupling power transfer, etc.are known and in fact, this method safely and reliably transmits power in such a way that does not require a mechanical connection between the source and the load. In this method, power transmission is done wirelessly using resonance induction coupling. By operating the transducer in the resonant mode, it will be possible to transfer a significant amount of power over an air distance of a few tens of centimeters, while the system efficiency is high and the voltage and current stress of the transducer are reasonable. In this paper, by presenting a method based on robust control and meta-heuristic algorithms, we improve the charging process of electric vehicles by considering uncertainty conditions. The simulation results show the better performance of the proposed controller compared to other controllers. Also, in this paper, the effect of connecting the charging station of electric vehicles to the distribution network is investigated by considering the optimal charging and discharging scheduling systems to maximize the economic profit of the vehicles and the charging station. In the proposed method, the best program for charging and discharging cars in order to maximize their profit is extracted based on genetic algorithm. According to the simulation results, optimal charging and discharging planning has reduced the value of losses to the total network energy to load the station in some trains, so that network targets such as losses and voltage deviation index are minimized and voltage stability index is maximized. In this study, minimization of losses, voltage deviation as well as maximization of voltage stability index have been investigated and the optimal location of the station has been obtained by considering these goals along with the profit of the station and vehicles. Finally, according to the results, with the planning of charging and discharging cars, in addition to providing the required charge, the profit of the station and cars has also increased. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

32 - Robust Planning of False Data Injection Attack on Electricity Markets in Smart Grids
Hamed Badrsimaei R. Hooshmand Soghra Nobakhtian

False data injection attack (FDIA) is a destructive cyber threat to the economic performance of electricity markets in smart grids. A cyber attacker can make a huge financial profit by implementing an FDIA through penetrating the virtual transactions of the electricity More

False data injection attack (FDIA) is a destructive cyber threat to the economic performance of electricity markets in smart grids. A cyber attacker can make a huge financial profit by implementing an FDIA through penetrating the virtual transactions of the electricity markets and manipulating electricity prices. In this paper, a new approach to planning an absolutely stealthily FDIA is presented with the aim of achieving maximum financial profit from the perspective of a cyber attacker participating in virtual transactions from two markets of day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT). A common hypothesis in studies of FDIAs against electricity markets is that the attacker has complete information about the smart grid. But the fact is that the attacker has limited resources and can hardly access all the network information. This paper proposes a robust approach in designing an attack strategy under incomplete network information conditions. In particular, it is assumed that the attacker has uncertainties about the network modeling matrices. The validity of the proposed method is evaluated based on the IEEE 14-bus standard system using the Matpower tool. Numerical results confirm the relative success of the proposed attack in cases of varying degrees of incomplete information. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

33 - Probabilistic Evaluation of Multi-Chamber Arresters Protection Performance for Reduction of Lighting Failures in Overhead Distribution Lines
Ramezan Ali Naghizadeh

A sophisticated and accurate probabilistic computational procedure for the calculation of lightning failures and evaluation of MCA performance for reduction of failures is implemented in this paper. Calculation of induced overvoltage caused by indirect lightning is impl More

A sophisticated and accurate probabilistic computational procedure for the calculation of lightning failures and evaluation of MCA performance for reduction of failures is implemented in this paper. Calculation of induced overvoltage caused by indirect lightning is implemented based on the Agarwal method with consideration of lossy ground. The Monte Carlo method with backward scenario reduction is implemented to take into account the uncertainty of lightning flash parameters including peak current and front time with the distance of the striking point from the distribution line with applying a proper model for simulation of MCA in ATP-EMTP software. A link is developed between MATLAB and ATP-EMTP software to simulate the numerous generated scenarios and analyze the output results. Different conditions including the insulation strength of the line, the earth conductivity, and the shielding factor of the adjacent objects to the line are also taken into account in calculations. The results are presented in a proper way to make them useful for the determination of lightning-related failure rates and also accurate evaluation of the effectiveness of MCA installation in different conditions of distribution feeders. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

34 - Porosity modeling in Azadegan oil field: a comparative study of Bayesian theory of data fusion, multi layer neural network, and multiple linear regression techniques
عطیه مظاهری طرئی حسین معماریان بهزاد تخم چی بهزاد مشیری

Porosity parameter is an important reservoir property that can be obtained by studying the well core. However, all wells in a field do not have a core. Additionally, in some wells such as horizontal wells, measuring the well core is practically impossible. However, for More

Porosity parameter is an important reservoir property that can be obtained by studying the well core. However, all wells in a field do not have a core. Additionally, in some wells such as horizontal wells, measuring the well core is practically impossible. However, for almost all wells, log data is available. Usually these logs are used to estimate porosity. The porosity value obtained from this method is influenced by factors such as temperature, pressure, fluid type, and amount of hydrocarbons in shale formations. Thus it is slightly different from the exact value of porosity. Thus, estimates are prone to error and uncertainty. One of the best and yet most practical ways to reduce the amount of uncertainty in measurement is using various sources and data fusion techniques. The main benefit of these techniques is that they increase confidence and reduce risk and error in decision making. In this paper, in order to determine porosity values, data from four wells located in Azadegan oil field are used. First, multilayer neural network and multiple linear regressions are used to estimate the values and then the results of these techniques are compared with a data fusion method (Bayesian theory). To check if it would be possible to generalize these three methods on other data, the porosity parameter of another independent well in this field is also estimated by using these techniques. Number of input variables to estimate porosity in both the neural network and the multiple linear regressions methods is 7, and in the data fusion technique, a maximum of 7 input variables is used. Finally, by comparing the results of the three methods, it is concluded that the data fusion technique (Bayesian theory) is a considerably more accurate technique than multilayer neural network, and multiple linear regression, when it comes to porosity value estimation; Such that the results are correlated with the ground truth greater than 90%. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

35 - Porosity estimation with data fusion approach (Bayesian theory) in wells of Azadegan oil field, Iran
رویا خضرلو هادی کرمانشاهی

Porosity is one of the main variables in evaluating the characteristics of an oil field. Petrophysical data are normally used to determine these variables. Measurements obtained from well logs, containes some errors and uncertainty. This porosity is influenced by dif More

Porosity is one of the main variables in evaluating the characteristics of an oil field. Petrophysical data are normally used to determine these variables. Measurements obtained from well logs, containes some errors and uncertainty. This porosity is influenced by different factors, such as temperature, pressure, fluid type, clay content and the and amount of hydrocarbons. One of the best, and yet most practical ways to reduce the amount of uncertainty in porosity measurement is using various sources of data and data fusion techniques. Data fusion increase certainty and confidence and reduce risk and error in decision making. In this research, the porosity is estimated in 4 wells of Azadegan oil field, with data fusion method (Bayesian theory). To check the ability of generalization of the method, the porosity was also estimated in one other well of this field. A maximum of 7 input variables were used to estimate porosity in this new approach. The results showed that data fusion technique is more powerfull than traditional tecniques for porosity estimation. According to the results, this method has higher credibility than traditional techniques that show 0.7 to 0.8 regressions with log data but data fusion technique showed solidarity over 0.9 with log data. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

36 - Porosity estimation with data fusion approach (Bayesian theory) in wells of Azadegan oil field, Iran
عطیه مظاهری طرئی Hoseyn Memarian Behzad Tokhmchi Behzad Moshiri

Porosity is one of the main variables in evaluating the characteristics of an oil field. Petrophysical data are normally used to determine these variables. Measurements obtained from well logs, containes some errors and uncertainty. This porosity is influenced by differ More

Porosity is one of the main variables in evaluating the characteristics of an oil field. Petrophysical data are normally used to determine these variables. Measurements obtained from well logs, containes some errors and uncertainty. This porosity is influenced by different factors, such as temperature, pressure, fluid type, clay content and the and amount of hydrocarbons. One of the best, and yet most practical ways to reduce the amount of uncertainty in porosity measurement is using various sources of data and data fusion techniques. Data fusion increase certainty and confidence and reduce risk and error in decision making. In this research, the porosity is estimated in 4 wells of Azadegan oil field, with data fusion method (Bayesian theory). To check the ability of generalization of the method, the porosity was also estimated in one other well of this field. A maximum of 7 input variables were used to estimate porosity in this new approach. The results showed that data fusion technique is more powerfull than traditional tecniques for porosity estimation. According to the results, this method has higher credibility than traditional techniques that show 0.7 to 0.8 regressions with log data but data fusion technique showed solidarity over 0.9 with log data. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

37 - Investigating the moderating effect of social capital and environmental uncertainty on entrepreneurial orientation and performance with the mediating role of innovation speed in knowledge-based small and medium enterprises of Razavi Khorasan Province
hossein balouchi Mohammadi Hosseini Seyed Ahmad ehsan mohammadi bajgiran

In today's dynamic environment, having appropriate strategies alone is not enough for organizations and they must be able to coordinate with their environment. It is small and medium companies. This study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive and survey in term More

In today's dynamic environment, having appropriate strategies alone is not enough for organizations and they must be able to coordinate with their environment. It is small and medium companies. This study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive and survey in terms of data collection method. A questionnaire based on standard questionnaires was used to collect data. The statistical population of the research was the managers of small and medium-sized knowledge-based companies in Khorasan Razavi province, which had more than 316 knowledge-based companies operating in Khorasan Razavi province. Based on Cochran's formula, 320 people were considered as samples and completed the questionnaire. Data analysis for both the direct relationship model and the moderator model was done using the structural equation modeling method in Lisrel software. The obtained results showed that entrepreneurial orientation has an effect on company performance and innovation speed. Also, the mediating role of innovation speed in the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and performance was confirmed. In addition, the results confirmed the moderating role of contingent capital and environmental uncertainty in relation to entrepreneurial orientation and company performance Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

38 - Reactive Power management in Distribution Network Considering uncertainties in the Presence of Discrete and Continuous Reactive Power Compensator Equipment
mahboobeh etemadizadeh maryam Ramezani H. Falaghi

The increasing rate of distributed generation resources expansion into power systems and the random nature of these resources have altered the operation and design of these networks, and reactive power management in distribution networks belongs to this category. The us More

The increasing rate of distributed generation resources expansion into power systems and the random nature of these resources have altered the operation and design of these networks, and reactive power management in distribution networks belongs to this category. The use of these resources in distribution networks is not without challenges and the lack of optimal management of reactive power may not bring economic efficiency for the network. Energy storage systems have the potential to solve this problem. Therefore, in this article, reactive power management in a microgrid connected to the main grid, taking into account distributed generation sources, energy storage systems and discrete reactive power compensating equipment, including capacitor banks, taking into account uncertainty in network load and Wind and solar power generation has been done. Finally, the efficiency of the method is demonstrated by numerical examinations on the distribution networks of 33 and 69 IEEE buses and in the GAMS optimization software. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

39 - The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth in Iran
Hatef Hazeri Niri Ali Salmanpour Siamak ShokouhiFard Farzad Rahimzadeh

One of the major objectives of any economic system, achieving high and stable economic growth rates, inflation, full employment a fair distribution of income in the country. As a result, decision-making and reducing investment time horizon is shorter latest Blnd¬Mdt and More

One of the major objectives of any economic system, achieving high and stable economic growth rates, inflation, full employment a fair distribution of income in the country. As a result, decision-making and reducing investment time horizon is shorter latest Blnd¬Mdt and other factors mentioned. Inflationary uncertainty is also considered as one of the costs of inflation. Inflationary uncertainty leads to the deviation of economic decisions in the field of production. In these difficult circumstances,and the uncertainty of future decisions, decisions that affect economic agents. The focus of this study was to investigate the effect of inflation on economic growth Na¬Atmynany Iran. In this research, hypothesis testing and multivariate linear regression model VAR-GARCH-M method to analyze the data in the period 1347 to 1401 is used. In calculate the uncertainty, using modeling ARMA (Box - Jenkins) to determine the order of the action. In general, the results of this study shows the negative impact of inflation uncertainty on economic growth in the long term. Although this effect was positive in the short term, it has unusual effects on the economic components in the long term. In other words, the stability of inflationary uncertainty in the long term also increases inflation. Other results obtained from long-term relationships indicate the positive effect of money volume and exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth. Also, the result obtained from the Granger causality test also shows that the causality relationship is from inflation uncertainty to inflation, so that the opposite relationship is not significant. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

40 - Investigating the effect of environmental uncertainty on the performance of the Isfahan municipality by considering the moderating role of innovation and strategic orientation
Davood Gholamrezaei zohre sadat mirsafian monir habibi

The rapid growth of cities and gaining them from the municipalities and resources has made appropriate services for these organizations to a great challenge. As a result of developments, public organizations including municipalities are affected by internal and external More

The rapid growth of cities and gaining them from the municipalities and resources has made appropriate services for these organizations to a great challenge. As a result of developments, public organizations including municipalities are affected by internal and external factors, structural, cultural, economic, social and political. Therefore, unban managers as head of the city's leadership pyramid have the heavy task of creating harmory between the parts that govern the city. In study aimed to investigate the effect of environmental uncertainty on the performance of the Isfahan municipality in considering the mediating role of innovation and strategic orientation. This research is of descriptive-analytical nature in terms of type and nature, and in terms of purpose, it is a type of applied research. The information gathering method is survey type (using a questionnaire) and a hypothesis type. The model has been tested through data collection from the sample of 193 listed among the managers and directors of Isfahan municipality and using partial least squares method (PLS). Findings show the negative and significant negative effects of environmental uncertainty on municipality functions. The strategic orientation also reversed the relationship between environmental uncertainty and municipality functions, but the moderating role of innovation was not endorsed. Accordingly, some practical suggestions have been developed to be applied bay managers. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

41 - The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Economic Growth in Iran
علی سلمانپور زنوز Siamak ShokouhiFard Hatef Hazeri Niri

Ali Salmanpour Siamak ShokouhiFard Hatef Hazeri Niri Abstract One of the major objectives of any economic system, achieving high and stable economic growth rates, inflation, full employment a fair distribution of income in the country. As a result, decision More

Ali Salmanpour Siamak ShokouhiFard Hatef Hazeri Niri Abstract One of the major objectives of any economic system, achieving high and stable economic growth rates, inflation, full employment a fair distribution of income in the country. As a result, decision-making and reducing investment time horizon is shorter latest Blnd¬Mdt and other factors mentioned. Inflationary uncertainty is also considered as one of the costs of inflation. Inflationary uncertainty leads to the deviation of economic decisions in the field of production. In these difficult circumstances,and the uncertainty of future decisions, decisions that affect economic agents. The focus of this study was to investigate the effect of inflation on economic growth Na¬Atmynany Iran. In this research, hypothesis testing and multivariate linear regression model VAR-GARCH-M method to analyze the data in the period 1347 to 1401 is used. In calculate the uncertainty, using modeling ARMA (Box - Jenkins) to determine the order of the action. In general, the results of this study shows the negative impact of inflation uncertainty on economic growth in the long term. Although this effect was positive in the short term, it has unusual effects on the economic components in the long term. In other words, the stability of inflationary uncertainty in the long term also increases inflation. Other results obtained from long-term relationships indicate the positive effect of money volume and exchange rate fluctuations on economic growth. Also, the result obtained from the Granger causality test also shows that the causality relationship is from inflation uncertainty to inflation, so that the opposite relationship is not significant. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

42 - Investigating the effect of environmental uncertainty on the performance of the Isfahan municipality by considering the moderating role of innovation and strategic orientation
Davood Gholamrezaei zohre sadat mirsafian monir habibi

Davood Gholamrezaei Zohre Sadat Mirsafian Monir Habibi Abstract The rapid growth of cities and gaining them from the municipalities and resources has made appropriate services for these organizations to a great challenge. As a result of developments, publ More

Davood Gholamrezaei Zohre Sadat Mirsafian Monir Habibi Abstract The rapid growth of cities and gaining them from the municipalities and resources has made appropriate services for these organizations to a great challenge. As a result of developments, public organizations including municipalities are affected by internal and external factors, structural, cultural, economic, social and political. Therefore, unban managers as head of the city's leadership pyramid have the heavy task of creating harmory between the parts that govern the city. In study aimed to investigate the effect of environmental uncertainty on the performance of the Isfahan municipality in considering the mediating role of innovation and strategic orientation. This research is of descriptive-analytical nature in terms of type and nature, and in terms of purpose, it is a type of applied research. The information gathering method is survey type (using a questionnaire) and a hypothesis type. The model has been tested through data collection from the sample of 193 listed among the managers and directors of Isfahan municipality and using partial least squares method (PLS). Findings show the negative and significant negative effects of environmental uncertainty on municipality functions. The strategic orientation also reversed the relationship between environmental uncertainty and municipality functions, but the moderating role of innovation was not endorsed. Manuscript profile

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