climate change

Open Access Article

1 - Climate Change Assessment in Ardebil province during 2011-2030
ladan kazemi rad

10.29252/.1.1.39

Outputs of GCMs downscaled by LARS-WG model for assessing the Climate Change in Ardebil Province. Outputs from 2 GCMs models (MPEH5, HADCM3) based on 2 scenarios (A2, B1) were used for predicting climatic parameters during 2011-2030. Model that has lowest difference com More

Outputs of GCMs downscaled by LARS-WG model for assessing the Climate Change in Ardebil Province. Outputs from 2 GCMs models (MPEH5, HADCM3) based on 2 scenarios (A2, B1) were used for predicting climatic parameters during 2011-2030. Model that has lowest difference compared to the average results has chosen as a suitable model for predicting the future. Outputs of chosen Model were compared with the base data to determine their trends. The results showed that minimum and maximum temperatures (0.4 ° C) and dry day length (9 days) will increase. Also rainfall (27.5 mm), wet day length (9 days), hot day length (2 days) and frost day length (4 days) will decrease in the period of future. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

2 - Assessing the implications of climate change on food security and rural livelihoods Case Study : Rural Farmers in Migan Nehbandan
Javad Mikaniki Morteza Esmailnejad Mohammad Akbarpour Mahmaoud Falsoleyman

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change on food security in the villages of the Migan village of Nehbandan district of South Khorasan. In order to achieve this goal, target groups (100 households were randomly selected) were identified to measure th More

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change on food security in the villages of the Migan village of Nehbandan district of South Khorasan. In order to achieve this goal, target groups (100 households were randomly selected) were identified to measure the impact of climate change on food security and were indexed to identify the various domains of food security. These indicators include indicators of access to rural food insecurity and food insecurity ranges of rural households. Finally, rural households were classified in terms of food security in four groups: mild food security, moderate food security, food insecurity. Changes in key food security and household livelihoods as a result of climatic changes in the region have been clarified with regard to field observations and key interviews with rural people. The main finding is that societies that have never experienced extreme temperatures, drought and dust have not experienced it, they are currently in abundance. The research findings revealed that all households in the statistical community have food insecurityHouseholds vulnerable to climate change recorded a high level of food insecurity. Households prefer to adopt a variety of strategies in response to climate change that helps improve household food security. Non-agricultural incomes play an important role in reducing food insecurity in households. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - The Statistical analysis of Global Warming effect in Seasonal Rainfalls changes in Iran
zahra hedjazizadeh mohamadreza poodineh meysam toulabi nejad

Increasing greenhouse gases could increase the frequency of changes in precipitation in different regions of the world. So, identify the effects of global warming on precipitation in a country like Iran which is located in the dry area of the earth is of great importanc More

Increasing greenhouse gases could increase the frequency of changes in precipitation in different regions of the world. So, identify the effects of global warming on precipitation in a country like Iran which is located in the dry area of the earth is of great importance in planning related to water resources are. According to the study, statistical analysis method used. for analysis, total precipitation data of 34 stations from 1984 to 2012 was received from the National Weather Service. Also data of methane Gase (ppb) as one of the most important factors of global warming, the site of NOAA received. Outset this elements by method The Pearson correlation coefficient determined, afterwards long-term changes in precipitation than was calculated. The results of this study showed that, Bharhdr rainfall in the north and northwest parts of the country grew 13 mm; and Precipitation stations southern half of the country have faced long-term reduction of 46 percent. Due to the increasing amount of greenhouse gases, analysis of the data suggests a reduction of 30 mm of precipitation in summer than long-term stations in southern Iran, but in contrast rainfall in western and northern stations, an increasing of 14 mm. The results showed that the autumn precipitation is most relevant to global warming, in this season, about 24 mm of rainfall western stations to long-term decline, but the Southwest and Southeast stations surged 17 mm have experienced. Finally, the results of the Winters precipitation showed which, the West and Northwest stations were reduced 18/6 mm. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Runoff in the Caravan River
elnaz khazai mohamadreza poodineh mohsen hamidian

The phenomenon of climate change has occurred in recent decades as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions and a general warming of the earth. Which has led to significant changes in the meteorological elements and as a result of the status of water resources in More

The phenomenon of climate change has occurred in recent decades as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions and a general warming of the earth. Which has led to significant changes in the meteorological elements and as a result of the status of water resources in the regions. Short term droughts, large floods, marine hurricanes ... are among the consequences of climate change. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of climate change on the runoff of the Caravandr River. In this study, the CORDEX data of the REMO model was used under two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the baseline period (1365-1384) and the upcoming timeframe (1434-1400). In this research, SDSM and Linear Scaling were used for micromachining of climatic data. The results of the SDSM model showed that there is no acceptable correlation between the Caravander River runoff and the 26 major climate scale parameters (NCEP). Linear scaling method was followed by high correlation between precipitation and runoff and the REMO climatic model showed good performance in simulating climatic parameters. The climate parameters were simulated for the upcoming period (1434-1400) and compared with the observation period (1365-1384). According to the results of this study, it can be said that the runoff of the whole basin has increased in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the future time series. The water assessment and planning (WEAP) model was used to study the effect of climate change on water allocation. The results of the WEAP model for three scenarios: increase in agricultural land, industrial progress and population growth indicate an increase in water demand in the catchment area and an increase in unprovched needs for agriculture, drinking and industry in the region. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - Impact of Climate Change on Dried Wheat Crop Calendar (Chamran Cultivar) Case Study Dezful
fatemah amiri hassan lashkari gabraeil Ghorbanian jafar morshedi

Today, climate change poses an environmental challenge to climate scientists, environmentalists, and politicians and governments. Whatever the scientific and theoretical view of climate change, even as a given phenomenon, one must be concerned about this. Because taking More

Today, climate change poses an environmental challenge to climate scientists, environmentalists, and politicians and governments. Whatever the scientific and theoretical view of climate change, even as a given phenomenon, one must be concerned about this. Because taking precautionary measures will make us safer than possible harm. In this regard, this study aimed to reveal the effect of climate change on dryland wheat calendar (Chamran cultivar) as a cultivated species in Khuzestan province. Precipitation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were sorted during the 1980–2010 climate. And after normalizing the data into the LARS-WG software environment .And its output was simulated by the LARS-WG model under the A2 emission scenario for the 2015-2045 climate period for the four parameters of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, radiation and precipitation. HADGCM2 model data from MarkSim output is also used for the next period (2030-2015) and (2030-2045). The results of this study showed that in the two 15-year periods 2015 to 2030 and 2030 to 2045 the minimum and maximum temperatures will increase according to all pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. This increase in March to April coincides with the harvest period more than other months. Precipitation in January, December and March will decrease in all scenarios. This decline will be more noticeable especially in the forecast period of 2015 to 2030 than in the forecast period of 2030 to 2045. In contrast, in November, February and April there will be an upward trend in all scenarios. Based on the combination of the two elements of temperature and precipitation predicted for the next two periods, all planting periods will have a harvest of 10 to 15 days. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

6 - Simulation and prediction of climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation in arid regions (Case study: Minab Plain, Iran)
Hassan Khosravi Hamed Eskandari Damaneh غلامرضا زهتابیان Hossein Azarnivand Aliakbar Barati

هn this study, the temperature and precipitation monthly averages of two synoptic stations of Bandar-Abbas and Minab were investigated during two periods (2044-20-2015 and 2074-2074) based on the general atmospheric circulation model outputs (CanESM2) and three scenario More

هn this study, the temperature and precipitation monthly averages of two synoptic stations of Bandar-Abbas and Minab were investigated during two periods (2044-20-2015 and 2074-2074) based on the general atmospheric circulation model outputs (CanESM2) and three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Then, the trend of these two parameters was evaluated using Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Also, the simulated and observational data were evaluated using three coefficients including NS, R2, RMSE. The investigation of these coefficients showed high ability of SDSM model for modeling of precipitation and temperature parameters at both stations. According to the results, annual precipitation in RCP2.6 scenario of Bandar-Abbas synoptic station and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of Minab station will decrease and the most reduction of rainfall will be related to Minab synoptic station. The average amount of temperature for the future in RCP8.5 emission scenario is more than other emission scenarios. Generally, these results indicated that temperature values will increase at the beginning of the 21st century in the Minab Plain, and the rainfall will increase just in RCP2.6 scenarios. While in the middle of the 20th century (2074-2045) at Minab and Bandar-Abbas synoptic stations, the temperature reduction is observed only in the RCP2.6 scenarios on an annual scale. Therefore, considering the reduction of rainfall and increasing of temperature and also their role in evapotranspiration enhancement, planners and authorities are recommended to seek solutions for proper management of water resources and modification of utilization methods in these areas, especially in the agricultural section and also use solutions to adapt to the new weather conditions in these regions. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Social Resilience to Climate Change; Indigenous and Non-indigenous Cash Rent Farming? (Case study: Potato farmers in Kermanshah Province
shahpar geravandi Hadis Heidari Hossein Agahi

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the social resilience of indigenous and non-indigenous cash rent farming to climate change. Also, the study was a descriptive cross-sectional used in the design. The research was carried out in Kermanshah province. The More

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the social resilience of indigenous and non-indigenous cash rent farming to climate change. Also, the study was a descriptive cross-sectional used in the design. The research was carried out in Kermanshah province. The populations consist of potato Farmers (Indigenous and Non-indigenous Cash Rent Farming). The farmers have selected a stratified random sampling method from a list developed by researchers. A questionnaire was used for data collection. This instrument was designed based 5S model. The validity and reliability of questionnaire were confirmed by experts and Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Based on the result, the composite index showed that, Indigenous tenants in the dimensions; Social structure, social justice, and social capital and non-indigenous tenants in the dimensions: social structure, social mechanism, and social beliefs accounted for the largest amounts. Also, according to the results obtained from the study, among the two systems, the Non-indigenous cash rent farming has the highest amount of social resilience (18.89) to climate change compared to the Indigenous tenants(15.59). Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

8 - Identification and Prioritizing the barriers to effective utilization of Mechanisms of ‎United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)‎‏ ‏by Emphasizing on organizational training based on the Three-Dimensional Model
Somayeh Oryan Seyed Mohammad Shobeiri Mehran Farajollahi

This study aimed at investigating‏ ‏and prioritizing the pathology of organizational training on financial and ‎non-financial mechanisms of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by a ‎diagnostic trichotomy model. This study was exploratory resea More

This study aimed at investigating‏ ‏and prioritizing the pathology of organizational training on financial and ‎non-financial mechanisms of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by a ‎diagnostic trichotomy model. This study was exploratory research and its methodology was developmental ‎and applied research method. In terms of data collection was combined (quantitative and qualitative) ‎research. The review documents and semi-structured interviews were used as data collection tools. In order to ‎analyze the data, the content analysis for classifying method was used and interviews were conducted with 40 ‎elite and specialists, who were selected purposefully. At the first stage, After extracting 212 barriers and ‎removing repeated elements, 44 relevant concepts and contents classified into one of the three (structural, ‎behavioral, environmental/context) dimensions of the model as a questionnaire.‎‏ ‏Through Lawshe content ‎validity, 36 barriers were selected and reliability by 0.812 Cronbach coefficient alpha‎ were confirmed. ‎Thereafter, this obstacles were prioritized by Fuzzy Delphi method. At the third stage, it was examined how ‎each barriers related legal, economic, political, administrative and environmental conditions‏ ‏influenced each ‎other’s through ISM and MICMAC techniques.‎‏ ‏The results demonstrated that after international and national ‎laws and legal issues, educational process was second effective item. Need assessment for different levels and ‎stakeholders, lack of instructors familiar with the subject and lack of appropriate educational contents as the ‎priority issues had been recognized.‎ Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

9 - Prediction of carbon price forecast using time series analysis
Roya Abedi

Many economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy prod More

Many economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy production versus fossil fuels is great concern of governments, and many efforts have been made to reduce or control carbon dioxide emissions. The aim of this study is to investigate carbon price fluctuations and predict price trends based on historical carbon price data in the time series 2005-2020. Data were analyzed by regression analysis based on Fuller augmented Dicky after eliminating inflation. The results show that the trend of carbon prices has fluctuated during this period. The average expected price of carbon is 3,303,589 Iranian Rials.Many economic tools have been proposed and used to reduce climate change. Carbon trading is one of these market-based tools that is recognized as a cost-effective way to change climate and environmental issues. Today, the issue of carbon sequestration and bioenergy production versus fossil fuels is great concern of governments, and many efforts have been made to reduce or control carbon dioxide emissions. The aim of this study is to investigate carbon price fluctuations and predict price trends based on historical carbon price data in the time series 2005-2020. Data were analyzed by regression analysis based on Fuller augmented Dicky after eliminating inflation. the trend of carbon prices has ش fluctuated during this period. The average expected price of carbon is 3,303,589 Iranian Rials. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

10 - Paris climate change conference and its impact on international Cooperation
Hadi Ajili Askari

Paris Climate Conference was held in a different manner related to the previous ones. The difference was in determining countries pledges. In this conference states themselves determined their share of mitigation of greenhouse gases. In previous conferences pledges were More

Paris Climate Conference was held in a different manner related to the previous ones. The difference was in determining countries pledges. In this conference states themselves determined their share of mitigation of greenhouse gases. In previous conferences pledges were determined through a top down procedure which was not adequate and also parties were not able to fulfill them. But in Paris conference a bottom up procedure was used that helped countries to take pledges, based on their condition and abilities, they are able to fulfill them. The purpose of this research is to answer this question that how Paris climate conference affects international cooperation? This research suggests that the cooperation in Paris can be a model for cooperation in other international fields. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

11 - Investigating the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation using the LARS-WG model (case study: Bashar river basin)
Hamid reza Panahi Hossein Montaseri Aliakbar Hekmat zadeh Reza Khalili

The increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with More

The increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with reducing their reflection should be seriously addressed as part of a comprehensive regional response to the vulnerability caused by climate change. In this study, using LARS-WG exponential microscale software and the HadCM3 oceanic atmospheric general circulation model in the form of different scenarios defined in the fourth IPCC report (basic scenarios), including scenario A1, A2, B1, B2, which are more related to regional issues. And the world is concerned from an economic and environmental point of view, the amount of temperature changes and precipitation in the next 100 years of Bashar river basin was predicted. Then the fifth report scenario (RCP) was used and the results were compared with the basic scenarios. The results showed that in both scenarios in the coming period, we will face a large increase in average air temperature, but the decrease in precipitation will not be significant. In the climate change scenario section, RCPs until the end of the 21st century indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the coming years. The amount of temperature changes in RCP2.6 was estimated between 3 and 13% and in RCP8.5 between 4 and 14%; This increase in temperature on a large scale increases evaporation and prolongs drought periods. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

12 - Investigation of the trend of climate change using simulated data of LARS-WG model in the period of 2011-2030 (Case study: Sardasht region of West Azerbaijan)
maryam aghaie zahra eslamian

Given the importance of climate change on the structure of the planet's environment and its in habitants, and will continue to try to understand as much as possible how climate change is happening. In this study in the climatic phase, daily data of minimum temperature, More

Given the importance of climate change on the structure of the planet's environment and its in habitants, and will continue to try to understand as much as possible how climate change is happening. In this study in the climatic phase, daily data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours of Sardasht synoptic station in the period 1996-1996 were simulated using LARS-WG statistical model and after ensuring the efficiency of this model in Simulation of meteorological parameters in Sardasht region, to study climatic parameters in climate change, data; Three scenarios A2 (maximum scenario), A1B (medium scenario) and B1 (minimum scenario) of HadCM3 model in the period 2030-2011 were scaled with LARS-WG small statistical model. The results showed that according to the estimation of LARS-WG model for the studied scenarios in the future periods, the average temperature of Sardasht watershed will increase by 4 degrees Celsius. The amount of precipitation also shows a 2% increase compared to the base period. The results also show that in general, the performance of Lars model in modeling the meteorological variables of the stations under study is appropriate and can be used to reconstruct the data of stations in the past or Extend this data to the next period. It can also be used to assess the future climate of the province on a local scale. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

13 - The effects of US sanctions on the production of carbon dioxide greenhouse gases in Iran
fateme ahmadi

In 2019, Iran ranked eighth in the world in terms of the amount of carbon dioxide produced and polluting the earth, and higher than England, France, Italy, Canada, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, etc. But the environmental realities of Iran are even more terrible than these More

In 2019, Iran ranked eighth in the world in terms of the amount of carbon dioxide produced and polluting the earth, and higher than England, France, Italy, Canada, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia, etc. But the environmental realities of Iran are even more terrible than these statistics. Because by calculating the destruction of surface and underground water, forests and pastures, this country is facing a much deeper crisis. Iran has a very fragile environmental situation and is at the forefront of the fight against global warming. This vast country is located in the desert belt and dry and crisis-stricken region of the Middle East and between war-torn countries such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. With the destruction of underground water resources and the forests and pastures of the region and the increase in the use of fossil fuels, irreparable damage has been done to the region's environment. In such a situation, economic sanctions against Iran make the situation worse. This issue has not received much attention from politicians and even environmentalists. How will the air on the planet become hotter and more polluted with the sanctions on Iran, and its smoke will reach the eyes of all the people of the world, including the embargoing countries? Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

14 - Investigating the impact of climate change on the environment and agriculture
Bahareh Rafiei Hamed Kioumarsi Reza Naseri Harsini Seyed Mohammad Reza Mahdavian

During the last century, science and technology have grown and developed significantly, however, this development, along with all the advantages and added values for the quality of human life, has brought inappropriate effects on the environment. Unfortunately, the huma More

During the last century, science and technology have grown and developed significantly, however, this development, along with all the advantages and added values for the quality of human life, has brought inappropriate effects on the environment. Unfortunately, the human conflict with the problems which has created for the planet, including wars and new diseases, has caused less attention to the impact of climate change on environment and especially the related agriculture activities. If the agricultural sector exposed by climate change and will not be able to meet human food needs, life will be near to its end point. Agricultural activities are not only exposed to these changes, but also by leaving possible negative effects on environment lead to these changes. Threatening food security, the reduction of biological diversity, the loss of soil, the reduction of water resources, and the conversion of forests into farms and their gradual destruction, turn the earth into an unlivable area with the unpredictable occurrence of storms, floods and temperature changes. Therefore, investigating the impact of climate change and its components on different ecosystems and species that affect agriculture can be a step towards achieving new management mechanisms to reduce and adapt to these changes and achieving sustainable environment and agriculture. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

15 - The role of moral principles in climate obligations from the perspective of international law
Reza Maleki Masoud Raee Dehghi

Despite the existence of a legal regime to deal with climate change in the current era, the various consequences of climate change are increasing rapidly and the most negative effects are on the poor and marginalized people around the world. Considering the ineffectiven More

Despite the existence of a legal regime to deal with climate change in the current era, the various consequences of climate change are increasing rapidly and the most negative effects are on the poor and marginalized people around the world. Considering the ineffectiveness of the government's legal responsibility institution in meeting climate commitments, what practical solutions can be considered to deal with this challenge? It seems that considering the uneven path of the legal system of international responsibility to deal with climate change, from the Structural Convention to Paris, it is possible to resort to the moral responsibility of governments by validating moral principles. In this article, with a descriptive and analytical method, after examining the legal regime of climate change and its challenges, ethical principles and its relationship with obligations related to climate change are discussed as a practical solution to deal with climate change. Manuscript profile

List of Articles climate change

Rimag

Links

Related Centers

Technical Support

Official pages