Investigating the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation using the LARS-WG model (case study: Bashar river basin)
Subject Areas : Environmental impact assessment
Hamid reza Panahi
1
,
Hossein Montaseri
2
,
Aliakbar Hekmat zadeh
3
,
Reza Khalili
4
1 - Master's degree in Civil Engineering, Water Resources Engineering and Management, Yasuj University
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Water Resources Engineering and Management, Yasouj University
3 - Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology
4 - Master's degree in Civil Engineering, Water Resources Engineering and Management, Yasouj University
Keywords: Climate changes, precipitation, climate scenarios, Bashar River, general circulation model,
Abstract :
The increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with reducing their reflection should be seriously addressed as part of a comprehensive regional response to the vulnerability caused by climate change. In this study, using LARS-WG exponential microscale software and the HadCM3 oceanic atmospheric general circulation model in the form of different scenarios defined in the fourth IPCC report (basic scenarios), including scenario A1, A2, B1, B2, which are more related to regional issues. And the world is concerned from an economic and environmental point of view, the amount of temperature changes and precipitation in the next 100 years of Bashar river basin was predicted. Then the fifth report scenario (RCP) was used and the results were compared with the basic scenarios. The results showed that in both scenarios in the coming period, we will face a large increase in average air temperature, but the decrease in precipitation will not be significant. In the climate change scenario section, RCPs until the end of the 21st century indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the coming years. The amount of temperature changes in RCP2.6 was estimated between 3 and 13% and in RCP8.5 between 4 and 14%; This increase in temperature on a large scale increases evaporation and prolongs drought periods.
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