Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on Runoff in the Caravan River
Subject Areas :الناز خزاعی فیض آباد 1 , محمدرضا پودینه 2 , محسن حمیدیان پور 3
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Abstract :
The phenomenon of climate change has occurred in recent decades as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions and a general warming of the earth. Which has led to significant changes in the meteorological elements and as a result of the status of water resources in the regions. Short term droughts, large floods, marine hurricanes ... are among the consequences of climate change. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of climate change on the runoff of the Caravandr River. In this study, the CORDEX data of the REMO model was used under two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the baseline period (1365-1384) and the upcoming timeframe (1434-1400). In this research, SDSM and Linear Scaling were used for micromachining of climatic data. The results of the SDSM model showed that there is no acceptable correlation between the Caravander River runoff and the 26 major climate scale parameters (NCEP). Linear scaling method was followed by high correlation between precipitation and runoff and the REMO climatic model showed good performance in simulating climatic parameters. The climate parameters were simulated for the upcoming period (1434-1400) and compared with the observation period (1365-1384). According to the results of this study, it can be said that the runoff of the whole basin has increased in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the future time series. The water assessment and planning (WEAP) model was used to study the effect of climate change on water allocation. The results of the WEAP model for three scenarios: increase in agricultural land, industrial progress and population growth indicate an increase in water demand in the catchment area and an increase in unprovched needs for agriculture, drinking and industry in the region.
