List of Articles System Dynamics

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  1 - Investigation of the Relationship among factors affecting Science Development, Technology Development and Economic Growth in Iran using System Dynamics
  Hooman Shababi mahmood yahyazadehfar saeid rasekhi meysam shirkhodaei
  Knowledge-Based services and high-tech industries contributions in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countris are increasing, since these contributions are reaching about 40 percent in countries such as USA. Entrance of Knowledge and technology elements in production func More

  Knowledge-Based services and high-tech industries contributions in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countris are increasing, since these contributions are reaching about 40 percent in countries such as USA. Entrance of Knowledge and technology elements in production function means an enormous increase in returns and ignorance from the daily importance of technology in economic growth and development will lead to a gap between developed and poor countries, exponentially. The present research reviewed the related literature of the three fields of science development, technology development and economic growth and their relationships thoroughly, and found 14 cofactors that affect the three fields and their relationships. Using experts' suggestions (13 Iranian experts which resides in Iran and abroad), the cofactors were applied in system dynamics approach in Vensim software to test the relationship and dynamics of the three fields in Iran in four different scenarios and in a 10-year period. The results showed that the three fields are interact with eachother in a complex, interwined structure in Iran and political- economic convergence is the key factor in this relationship. The results will be useful for policymakers of the three fields in Iran.   Manuscript profile
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  2 - Design a Model Of System Dynamics (SD) On The Policy Of Upgrading Indices Of Iran ICT Network
  hamid honarparvaran
  In the recent years, developments in the field of information and telecommunications are pursued by major changes in different areas of human life. Human has constantly employed the technology and track record of human life is abundant with innovation in information and More

  In the recent years, developments in the field of information and telecommunications are pursued by major changes in different areas of human life. Human has constantly employed the technology and track record of human life is abundant with innovation in information and communication technologies (ICT) which are called as new or high- technology. Therefore, ICT Development Indices (IDI) are remarkably important. This research purports to design a model of system dynamics (SD) on the policy of upgrading indices of Iran ICT network. Accordingly, after investigating the IDI and mining the indices, the causal loops and flowchart are depicted through using the SD (system dynamics). The results of simulation show that the behavior of studied key variables, after performing enhancing economic growth policies, improved the quality and quantity of ICT infrastructure, social indices, the culture of employing ICT, and the technical knowledge of ICT operators and the enhancing process has accelerated. Manuscript profile
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  3 - Designing a system dynamics model for upgrading policy Iran Information and Communication Technology Network Indicators
  alinaghi moslehshirazi ali mohammadi habibollah ranaei hamid honarparvaran
  In recent years, the emergence of extensive changes in the field of information and communication, has led to major changes in various fields. Humans have always used technology and the record of human life is full of the invention of information and communication techn More

  In recent years, the emergence of extensive changes in the field of information and communication, has led to major changes in various fields. Humans have always used technology and the record of human life is full of the invention of information and communication technologies, which are referred to as new or excellent technologies. Therefore, the development of information and communication technology indicators has become of considerable importance. The purpose of this study is to design a system dynamics model for policy-making to improve the characteristics of Iran's information and communication technology network. For this purpose, after examining different models of ICT indicators and extracting the mentioned indicators, cause and effect loops and flow diagrams using the system dynamics method are presented. The simulation results show that the behavior of the studied basic variables after the implementation of policies to increase economic growth, quantitative and qualitative improvement of ICT infrastructure, growth of social indicators, culture of ICT utilization and knowledge promotion The technology of ICT users has improved and their growth process has accelerated. Manuscript profile
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  4 - Assessing the Remedy Policies of “Urmia Lake” Basin Crises By A System Dynamics Approach
  علیرضا  لاری جابر  مهرکار mir saman pishvaee
  The Urmia Lake is the greatest lake in Iran and the second saline lake in the world. This ecosystem contains a wide numbers of animals and plants. Urmia Lake has placed in the northwest of Iran and has economical, social and environmental importance for local people. Un More

  The Urmia Lake is the greatest lake in Iran and the second saline lake in the world. This ecosystem contains a wide numbers of animals and plants. Urmia Lake has placed in the northwest of Iran and has economical, social and environmental importance for local people. Unfortunately, in recent years, various and complex problems have decreased the level of water in Urmia Lake strongly and deteriorate the future life of this lake significantly. However, in the last decade, more than half of the lake area has changed to the salt plains. Many researches address the Urmia Lake crises in recent years; however, most of them are unable to model the dynamism of Urmia basin as a whole system in long-term period. In this paper, the critical factors affecting the reduction of Urmia Lake water level are defined. In addition, a system dynamics model, which is able to illustrate the behavior of the whole system of Urmia Lake, is proposed. The developed model is validated through comparison analysis and the derived results show the high accuracy (around 97%) of the proposed model. Three policies are proposed and evaluated to increase the water inflow and Lake level. The simulation results show that the hybrid policy has more efficiency than the other ones. Also, a prediction of Urmia Lake volume is proposed based on model till 1405. Manuscript profile
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  5 - Innovation in combining theory of constraints thinking process with system dynamics (A case study : supply chain management )
  mehdi ghazanfari حسين  محمدي
  Theory of Constraints is a kind of management philosophy that uses a systemic approach for understanding and analyzing the whole system. With this attitude identifying and removing the limitations (contradiction or problem that can limit the output of the system) in a s More

  Theory of Constraints is a kind of management philosophy that uses a systemic approach for understanding and analyzing the whole system. With this attitude identifying and removing the limitations (contradiction or problem that can limit the output of the system) in a systematic process of change is possible. The tools that the theory of constraints uses for identifying, removing and transferring from current adverse conditions to future desirable conditions, is called the thinking process tools. But always there is this need that the effect of various factors on each other in the process is investigated as a feedback loop and in long term. Thus the system dynamics methodology can be used as a complementary tool to this. In fact, This paper aims to describe show to integrate theory of constraints and system dynamics according to their assumptions and their philosophical foundation. To explain how to use these two intersect methods, the problem of inventory management in SCM, which today is known of the challenges, is used. The results show that the combination of these two approaches in terms of theoretical foundation, offer good supplement to understand the problem . Manuscript profile
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  6 - The Analysis of Implementing the Objectification of Subsidy Plan on Drug Supply Chain: A System Dynamics Approach
  محدثه  کلانتری زهرا  حیاتی هانی  شاهمرادی مقدم mir saman pishvaee
  Objectification of subsidy plan could be described as one of the best government plans and policies. According to perspective document 2025 that consider the first place in economy for Iran and regarding to government financial limitation on national economy, the reform More

  Objectification of subsidy plan could be described as one of the best government plans and policies. According to perspective document 2025 that consider the first place in economy for Iran and regarding to government financial limitation on national economy, the reform of economic policies is a part of economic necessity for Iran. In this paper, by establishing a suitable system dynamics model, we plan to represent the efficacy of the direct subsidy distribution on level satisfaction of people from drug price changes and also consider the efficacy of this subsidy distribution on total profit of drug supply chain. First, a system dynamics of drug supply chain by considering the direct subsidy distribution have modeled. Then, the model is simulated. To do this, the casual loop diagram is depicted and then with its help, the stock and flow diagram constructed. The simulation results show the unsuitable performance for implementing the subsidy objectification. As a result, two strategies have been suggested to improve the situation. Manuscript profile
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  7 - Modeling of Foresight for Sustainable Development Using Scenario Planning and System dynamics Approach (case study: Yazd Province)
  حمید بابایی میبدی Gholamreza  Godarzi Adel Azar Firozeh  Azizi
  Nowadays, the wide changes in various dimensions put managers in serious challenges. This issues cause the current plans will no longer be able to response, therefore it is necessary to use new approaches such as foresighting. Meanwhile, one of the main concerns of mana More

  Nowadays, the wide changes in various dimensions put managers in serious challenges. This issues cause the current plans will no longer be able to response, therefore it is necessary to use new approaches such as foresighting. Meanwhile, one of the main concerns of managers is the effect of their decisions on the key variables. This study using a foresight and systematic approaches and design the dynamic sustainable development model to seeks an answer to this important management issue. First we presented a framework for sustainable development and then, using the “Mic Mac” method identified the key drivers of sustainable development. In the next step, by designing a scenario portfolio, future possible scenarios for sustainable development were determined. Finally, by designing a regional sustainable development model, it is possible to simulate scenarios and decisions, and determine the appropriate scenarios from the possible multi-dimensional scenarios Manuscript profile
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  8 - Extension of The development methodology for hybrid multi-scale AB-SD simulation modeling in learning organizations
      Alinaghi Mashayekhi
  Performing the concurrent analysis of organizational, departmental and individual scales alongside macro and micro levels of abstraction in temporal, spatial and event-driven contexts may significantly clarify the concept of learning, and develops the opportunities for More

  Performing the concurrent analysis of organizational, departmental and individual scales alongside macro and micro levels of abstraction in temporal, spatial and event-driven contexts may significantly clarify the concept of learning, and develops the opportunities for effective policy making accordingly. It would also help to improve the performance indicators of the system and its involved agents globally. Due to Ignorance of aforementioned concurrent analysis, the relationship between organizational learning and learning in lower scales has been ambiguous, and monitoring the effect of organizational learning on organization performance indicators has been neglected. Hence, whether organizational learning is an effective factor in the amplitude of organization competitive advantages or not has remained a serious question yet. However, a potential solution to this question has got conceivable through the multi-method system modeling perspective. Design and analysis of integrated multi-scale learning in organizations are now possible through hybrid modeling and simulation and the extended methodology presented in this research along with the related architecture. The outcome is a plain platform which embraces lucid modeling of complex abstract concepts including learning in organizations comprehensively. Future case studies may be required to further confirm the applicability of this methodology and underpin its administrative value. Manuscript profile
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  9 - A dynamic model of the impact of information and communication technology on GDP growth
  mohammad taghi taghavi fard melika mehrkam Esfandiar Jahangard Ameneh  Khadivar
  ICT plays an important role in accelerating economic growth, especially in today's age of the Internet and mobile telecommunications. Due to the upward trend in the use of information and communication technology in the countries of the world, this part of the economy d More

  ICT plays an important role in accelerating economic growth, especially in today's age of the Internet and mobile telecommunications. Due to the upward trend in the use of information and communication technology in the countries of the world, this part of the economy demands a lot of attention. Improved policies due to the impact of information and communication technology on the economy are one of the top programs of governments in developed and developing countries.A review of the literature shows that few systematic studies have examined the role of information and communication technology in GDP growth and the impact of various variables on the role of information and communication technology has not been sufficiently studied.The present study uses systematic approach and system dynamics methodology and examine interactions of ICT variables including ICT access, ICT development, ICT usage etc. with macroeconomic variables such as GDP, total factor productivity, ICT Capital examines ICT's value-added share of GDP and so on and presents a conceptual model of the role of ICT in GDP growth. The qualitative model designed in this study can be the basis for future quantitative research and mathematical simulation with a systematic approach to information and communication technology and GDP. Manuscript profile
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  10 - Designing a Model for Assessing Effective Factors in the Excellence of Human Resources with the Approach of System Dynamics(Case study: Yazd Province Ceramic tile Industry)
  amirehsan eshaghiyeh firuzabadi hossein eslami hadi hematian
  Abstract Background: In the ceramic tile industry, like other industries and companies, in order to increase competition in the market, they need capable human resources to comply with the requirements and principles of professional ethics. Based on this, the purpose o More

  Abstract Background: In the ceramic tile industry, like other industries and companies, in order to increase competition in the market, they need capable human resources to comply with the requirements and principles of professional ethics. Based on this, the purpose of this study was to design a model to evaluate the effective factors in the excellence of human resources in order to develop professional ethics in the tile and ceramic industry of Yazd province. Method: This research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-descriptive in terms of data collection from the survey branch. First, the initial and proposed model was drawn based on the research background and literature. The statistical population in the present study includes three groups of experts and specialists, information and data and personnel of the ceramic tile industry in Yazd province.At first, a panel of experts (15-20) people were selected and dynamic and key variables affecting the model were identified through semi-structured interviews.While collecting statistical data and financial information, a questionnaire was prepared using the opinion of experts and measured using factor analysis, and then distributed among the personnel of the ceramic tile industry (about 22,000 people).Using Morgan table, 373 people were selected as a sample. Then, according to the data collected using powerful Wesim software, the model was simulated in three stages and then validated. Results: The results of nonlinear mathematical model, which was analyzed by computer simulation using Vensim software, show: Factors affecting the excellence of human resources are factors inside and outside the organization, and accordingly, scenarios were described in order to promote the variables affecting the excellence of human resources and with the aim of developing professional ethics. Conclusion: The simulation results show that managers can increase the ability of employees, futures research, attention to exports and reduce the influence of the supervisor by presenting policies such as Employment control, strong and modern marketing, and the policy of eliminating growth patterns and the perspective of developing professional ethics achieve this important goal. Also, attracting managers with ethical leadership styles and having appropriate educational and research experiences and increasing the excellence of human resources based on the development of principles of professional ethics in the industry leads to Increase commitment and loyalty to the system, service motivation and ultimately improve the performance of ceramic tile personnel. Manuscript profile
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  11 - Designing an evaluation model of the effective factors on customers’ satisfaction with a system dynamics approach in the ceramic tile industry of Yazd province
  amir ehsan Ishaqiyeh Firouzabadi
  Abstract IntroductionTherefore, the purpose of this study is to present a simulated model of factors affecting customer satisfaction based on dynamic methodology in order to analyze the factors and also improve customer satisfaction. Method:This research is applied More

  Abstract IntroductionTherefore, the purpose of this study is to present a simulated model of factors affecting customer satisfaction based on dynamic methodology in order to analyze the factors and also improve customer satisfaction. Method:This research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-descriptive in terms of data collection from the survey branch. First, the initial and proposed model was drawn based on the research background and literature. The statistical population in the present study includes three groups of experts and specialists, information and data and personnel of the ceramic tile industry in Yazd province. At first, a panel of experts (15-20) people were selected and dynamic and key variables affecting the model were identified through semi-structured interviews.While collecting statistical data and financial information, a questionnaire was prepared using the opinion of experts and measured using factor analysis. Results: through simulation by Vensim, show that factors that increase customer satisfaction include quality, product diversity, and on-time delivery and factors that decrease customer satisfaction include ceramic tile import from other countries, low quality, high price, and lack of on-time delivery. Conclusion: Therefore, companies' attention to the model presented in this study can have a significant effect on increasing customer satisfaction. Managers can also play an effective role in increasing customer satisfaction by adopting strategic and creative policies. Manuscript profile
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  12 - A Simulation Model of Growth of Teams and Startups in Academic Development Centers using the System Dynamics Approach
  Mohammadreza Mohamadkhani Ruhollah Tavallaei Amirhossein  Mohammadinia mahdi farmani Esmail laali
  10.61186/jstpi.31970.19.74.1
  The purpose of this study is to provide a rich insight into the factors affecting the growth of teams and startups in Academic Development Centers. In this study, the factors affecting the growth of teams and startups were investigated using the system dynamics approach More

  The purpose of this study is to provide a rich insight into the factors affecting the growth of teams and startups in Academic Development Centers. In this study, the factors affecting the growth of teams and startups were investigated using the system dynamics approach. At first, after reviewing the theoretical literature and the experts’ opinions, Variables affecting the growth of teams and startups were indentified and causal relationships among these variables were depicted. Then, the mathematical relations among these variables were determined and, accordingly, the study system was simulated at growth centre of technician and knowledge based units at Imam Hussein comprehensive university during the period 2016 to 2066. After designing the cause and effect diagrams, six scenarios for the growth of teams and startups were defined, which are: The growth center's share of the profits of successful companies, The effect of interaction with successful companies in promoting the level of entrepreneurial culture, The effect of effective communication with successful companies in attracting financial support for technology units, The effect of changes in the number of clients to enter the center on the system, Admission control policy and The effect of legal protections of technology units on the system. Of the six simulated scenarios, the fifth scenario has the greatest impact on the growth of teams and startups in Academic Development Centers. Therefore, the policy of maintaining the quality of services through controlling the amount of technology units entering the growth centers can be considered an effective and important policy. Manuscript profile
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  13 - The Architure of Health Technological Innovation Ecosystem by Using the System Dynamics; Case Study Innovation Ecosystem of University of Tehran& Tehran University of Medical Sciences
  Alireza Motevallian Amir Albadvi jalil hidari Reza Bandarian
  The innovation ecosystem consists of a group of actors and dynamic processes that provide innovative solutions to new challenges. The main purpose of this research is to design a university-centered innovation ecosystem. For this purpose, ecosystem functions were first More

  The innovation ecosystem consists of a group of actors and dynamic processes that provide innovative solutions to new challenges. The main purpose of this research is to design a university-centered innovation ecosystem. For this purpose, ecosystem functions were first identified through literature review. Due to the limitation of As-Is data in Iran, interviews with stakeholders were chosen as a complementary technique. The second round of interviews were developed to identify the rules and processes of the ecosystem. The results of this study led to the choose Triple Layers core-periphery framework of innovation ecosystem called "Core-Platform-Development & Application". In this framework, the Institute of Health Technological Innovations is placed at the core layer, which is associated with these six platforms: Work Integrated Learning, Idea Generation, Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Shared Services, and Investment and Financing. Each of these platforms communicates with actors in that field at the Development & Application layer. After confirming the conceptual architecture with a triangulation technique, the ecosystem interaction model was designed & the results of the architecture in the case study were simulated by system dynamics method. For validation, the simulation results of the model under the two scenarios of continuation of the existing conditions and the establishment of the proposed architecture showed that the proposed architecture will clearly have a positive effect on the model variables in the future. Generally, the results obtained from the implementation of the model in favor of the implementation of architecture in the environment of innovation are studied in UT & TUMS Manuscript profile
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  14 - Evaluation of Policies for the Timely Implementation of Iran's Government Infrastructure Construction Projects Using System Dynamics (SD) Approach
  Mehrdad HajiEsmaili Ali mohammad Ahmadvand Marzieh  Samadi-Foroushani
  Objective: One of the major challenges in the management of construction projects is the lack of understanding of the mechanisms that cause delays in construction. In the meantime, government infrastructure construction projects have a more complex situation, so that th More

  Objective: One of the major challenges in the management of construction projects is the lack of understanding of the mechanisms that cause delays in construction. In the meantime, government infrastructure construction projects have a more complex situation, so that the success in the timely implementation of a construction project within the framework of government laws is one of the biggest goals and concerns of managers and agents involved in these types of projects. Methodology: It can be the present study identifies the mechanisms of project time delay risks based on system dynamics in order to identify and evaluate policies for the timely implementation of construction projects. For this purpose, first the literature and background were examined and during the semi-structured interview with the participants of the research, the effective factors on the timely implementation of the Iranian government construction project were identified. In the continuation of the dynamic model of the timely implementation of the Anrani project, the simulation was carried out using the data of the infrastructure operation project of the first section of Mobarakeh railway, Sefidasht, Shahrekord. Conclusion: After validation; According to the results of the sensitivity analysis of the system dynamics model, the exploitation policies during the construction project were identified in three strategies of providing project financial resources, project planning and control, and accountability of the project beneficiaries. In the following, it was also designed and applied to the model with selected combined policies. comparing the behavior of key model The combined selected policy Manuscript profile