List of Articles Scenario

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  1 - Investigation of the Relationship among factors affecting Science Development, Technology Development and Economic Growth in Iran using System Dynamics
  Hooman Shababi mahmood yahyazadehfar saeid rasekhi meysam shirkhodaei
  Knowledge-Based services and high-tech industries contributions in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countris are increasing, since these contributions are reaching about 40 percent in countries such as USA. Entrance of Knowledge and technology elements in production func More

  Knowledge-Based services and high-tech industries contributions in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countris are increasing, since these contributions are reaching about 40 percent in countries such as USA. Entrance of Knowledge and technology elements in production function means an enormous increase in returns and ignorance from the daily importance of technology in economic growth and development will lead to a gap between developed and poor countries, exponentially. The present research reviewed the related literature of the three fields of science development, technology development and economic growth and their relationships thoroughly, and found 14 cofactors that affect the three fields and their relationships. Using experts' suggestions (13 Iranian experts which resides in Iran and abroad), the cofactors were applied in system dynamics approach in Vensim software to test the relationship and dynamics of the three fields in Iran in four different scenarios and in a 10-year period. The results showed that the three fields are interact with eachother in a complex, interwined structure in Iran and political- economic convergence is the key factor in this relationship. The results will be useful for policymakers of the three fields in Iran.   Manuscript profile
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  2 - Iran's Cognitive Science and Technology Foresight, Using Scenario Planning Approach
  habibollah  tataeian alimorteza birang alinaghi khrazi amir nazemi
  In the near future cognitive science along with nano, bio and information technology (known as NBIC), can lead to a turning point and start a golden age by improving human's mental and physical performance. Based on this, in this research, by exploring foresight activit More

  In the near future cognitive science along with nano, bio and information technology (known as NBIC), can lead to a turning point and start a golden age by improving human's mental and physical performance. Based on this, in this research, by exploring foresight activities of other countries as well as indentifying the effective drivers of the future of cognitive science and technology, we are going to develope the future scenarios of the field in Iran in 2020 horizon. We use two methods inorder to identify the drivers: literature review and interviews with experts. Then, using a delphi survey the future uncertainties has been explored. Thus, the 4 scenarios which depict the future of cognitive science and technologies has been presented by using the 2 dimensional space resulting from the explored below uncertainties: the convergence and divergence of stakeholders and the engineering the mind approach against empowering the mind approach. Manuscript profile
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  3 - Explains perferable scenario of areal integrated development and optimal strategies for its implementation (Case Study: Minoodasht township)
    rasoul ghorbani  
  Present research explains the perferable scenario of areal integrated development and optimal strategies for its implementation in Minoodasht township. First step in this research was identifed and analyzed the effective factors in areal integrated development with emph More

  Present research explains the perferable scenario of areal integrated development and optimal strategies for its implementation in Minoodasht township. First step in this research was identifed and analyzed the effective factors in areal integrated development with emphasis on rural-urban linkages. In this regard used the Delphi method and cross-effects matrix(Mic-Mac software). In this way, 28 factors were identified as key factors. The second step is to explain the plausible and probable future and build the scenario. At this stage, plausible futures were firstly determined on the basis of key drivers. Within these futures, probabilistic futures were identified, and then the likelihood of realization of each of these believable situations was as follows in the form of a five-choice Likert spectrum (very much Low to very high). Accordingly, the situation with their score above the average (x = 3) was identified as probable future, which was the basis for mapping the desired scenario. Based on the findings of this section, the focus is on the development of tourism activities. To select the best strategies used SWOT model and hierarchical analysis model. The findings of this section also show that aggressive strategies are the most effective strategy. The hierarchical analysis model also showed that the top strategy among the aggressive strategies presented is based on the combination and development types of tourism as a tourist package, introducing and presenting attractions, facilities, programs, etc., through the capacity of cyberspace. Manuscript profile
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  4 - Simulation and prediction of climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation in arid regions (Case study: Minab Plain, Iran)
  Hassan Khosravi Hamed Eskandari Damaneh غلامرضا زهتابیان Hossein Azarnivand Aliakbar  Barati
  هn this study, the temperature and precipitation monthly averages of two synoptic stations of Bandar-Abbas and Minab were investigated during two periods (2044-20-2015 and 2074-2074) based on the general atmospheric circulation model outputs (CanESM2) and three scenario More

  هn this study, the temperature and precipitation monthly averages of two synoptic stations of Bandar-Abbas and Minab were investigated during two periods (2044-20-2015 and 2074-2074) based on the general atmospheric circulation model outputs (CanESM2) and three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Then, the trend of these two parameters was evaluated using Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Also, the simulated and observational data were evaluated using three coefficients including NS, R2, RMSE. The investigation of these coefficients showed high ability of SDSM model for modeling of precipitation and temperature parameters at both stations. According to the results, annual precipitation in RCP2.6 scenario of Bandar-Abbas synoptic station and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of Minab station will decrease and the most reduction of rainfall will be related to Minab synoptic station. The average amount of temperature for the future in RCP8.5 emission scenario is more than other emission scenarios. Generally, these results indicated that temperature values will increase at the beginning of the 21st century in the Minab Plain, and the rainfall will increase just in RCP2.6 scenarios. While in the middle of the 20th century (2074-2045) at Minab and Bandar-Abbas synoptic stations, the temperature reduction is observed only in the RCP2.6 scenarios on an annual scale. Therefore, considering the reduction of rainfall and increasing of temperature and also their role in evapotranspiration enhancement, planners and authorities are recommended to seek solutions for proper management of water resources and modification of utilization methods in these areas, especially in the agricultural section and also use solutions to adapt to the new weather conditions in these regions. Manuscript profile
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  5 - Modeling of Foresight for Sustainable Development Using Scenario Planning and System dynamics Approach (case study: Yazd Province)
  حمید بابایی میبدی Gholamreza  Godarzi Adel Azar Firozeh  Azizi
  Nowadays, the wide changes in various dimensions put managers in serious challenges. This issues cause the current plans will no longer be able to response, therefore it is necessary to use new approaches such as foresighting. Meanwhile, one of the main concerns of mana More

  Nowadays, the wide changes in various dimensions put managers in serious challenges. This issues cause the current plans will no longer be able to response, therefore it is necessary to use new approaches such as foresighting. Meanwhile, one of the main concerns of managers is the effect of their decisions on the key variables. This study using a foresight and systematic approaches and design the dynamic sustainable development model to seeks an answer to this important management issue. First we presented a framework for sustainable development and then, using the “Mic Mac” method identified the key drivers of sustainable development. In the next step, by designing a scenario portfolio, future possible scenarios for sustainable development were determined. Finally, by designing a regional sustainable development model, it is possible to simulate scenarios and decisions, and determine the appropriate scenarios from the possible multi-dimensional scenarios Manuscript profile
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  6 - The sustainable design of the supply chain of bioethanol production of sugarcane
     
  High cost, the risk of ending fossil fuels and pollution severely threatens metropolitan areas today and therefore paying attention to renewable energies is inevitable. This paper presents a three-level supply chain of bioethanol production with the three objectives of More

  High cost, the risk of ending fossil fuels and pollution severely threatens metropolitan areas today and therefore paying attention to renewable energies is inevitable. This paper presents a three-level supply chain of bioethanol production with the three objectives of maximizing profit, reducing environmental impacts and maximizing social impacts, using the Epsilon-constraint method for optimization. On the third level, there are several consumer markets that satisfy end-customer demand. The type of feedstock intended is sugarcane, which can be used to produce bioethanol. The planning horizon of the model is multi-period, and the relationship of chain levels to each other may be disrupted. Finally, a case study in the Southwest region of Iran demonstrates the function of the model. Manuscript profile
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  7 - Analyzing Weighted Attack Graphs Using Genetic Algorithms
  M. Abadi Saeed Jalili
  Each attack graph represents a collection of possible attack scenarios in a computer network. In this paper, we use weighted attack graphs (WAGs) for vulnerability assessment of computer networks. In these directed graphs, a weight is assigned to each exploit by the sec More

  Each attack graph represents a collection of possible attack scenarios in a computer network. In this paper, we use weighted attack graphs (WAGs) for vulnerability assessment of computer networks. In these directed graphs, a weight is assigned to each exploit by the security analyst. The weight of an exploit is proportionate to the cost required to prevent that exploit. The aim of analyzing a weighted attack graph is to find a critical set of exploits such that the sum of their weights is minimum and by preventing them no attack scenario is possible. In this paper, we propose a greedy algorithm, a genetic algorithm with a greedy mutation operator, and a genetic algorithm with a dynamic fitness function for analyzing the weighted attack graphs. The proposed algorithms are used to analyze a sample weighted attack graph and several randomly generated large-scale weighted attack graphs. The results of experiments show that the proposed genetic algorithms outperform the greedy algorithm and find a critical set of exploits with less total weight. Finally, we compare the performance of the second genetic algorithm with an approximation algorithm for analyzing several randomly generated large-scale simple attack graphs. The results of experiments show that our proposed genetic algorithm has better performance than the approximation algorithm and finds a critical set of exploits with less cardinality. Manuscript profile
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  8 - Investigating the Scenarios of non-Muslim non-Iranian Tourists of Mashhad Within 2025 Perspective
  Arash   Ghahreman Ahmad roumiani Sareh   Nematian zahra bostan
  10.61186/journalitor.35761.11.23.105
  The uncertainty caused by environmental complexities has made it difficult to forecast the future of Tourism in Mashhad in terms of non-Muslim tourists visiting the city, about whom no sufficient information exists. Therefore, this study sought to investigate the trend More

  The uncertainty caused by environmental complexities has made it difficult to forecast the future of Tourism in Mashhad in terms of non-Muslim tourists visiting the city, about whom no sufficient information exists. Therefore, this study sought to investigate the trend of variations in the visits made to Mashhad by non-Muslim tourists using the scenario writing method. To this end, this applied study used the analytical-qualitative approach, collecting the required data through detailed in-person interviews. In this regard, twenty-seven interviews were made in three phases with tourism experts in such fields as sociology, economics, planning, and specialized tourism services. In the first phase, the factors involved in attracting non-Muslim tourists to Mashhad were identified according to the views offered by the experts in interviews using the Delphi technique. In the second phase, the critical driving forces were identified based on two criteria of effectiveness and uncertainty. Finally, the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios concerning the future of non-Muslim tourism in Mashhad were described. The study’s findings revealed that smartizing tourism, making connections between tourism in Mashhad and its neighboring cities, increasing the number of media advertisements, improving the hospitality culture, and promoting a sense of security in the visiting tourists were the most important driving forces at the local level. Therefore, the number of Mashhad’s non-muslim tourists could be increased within the study period by improving IT infrastructure (including electronic trading, and electronic banking), introducing neighboring cities and villages of Mashhad and their tourist attractions, offering instructions regarding hospitality (especially for taxi drivers, business and shop owners), creating tourism police, and providing security in high-trafficking urban places. Manuscript profile
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  9 - Identifying the Factors Involved in Applying IoT to Smartening Tourism Destinations Using Future Studies Approach: A Case Study of Fars Province
  Khadije Kaveh maryam nekooeezadeh Moslem  Alimohammadlo
  10.61186/journalitor.38331.12.25.31
  Fars province is one of the main hubs of tourism centers in Iran. Therefore, paying special attention to tourism in the province and using Internet-of-things technology in its tourism management can provide suitable facilities for improving the welfare of its visiting t More

  Fars province is one of the main hubs of tourism centers in Iran. Therefore, paying special attention to tourism in the province and using Internet-of-things technology in its tourism management can provide suitable facilities for improving the welfare of its visiting tourists, thus increasing the visiting rate of its tourist destinations. In this regard, the present study sought to predict and identify the most important factors involved in applying the Internet of Things technology to the Smartization of tourist destinations in Fars province and to develop feasible desirable future scenarios thereof. To this end, the required data for this applied study were collected by conducting interviews, administering questionnaires, and carrying out a systematic review of related literature. Finally, the collected data were analyzed by the Scenario Wizard software using the MICMAC method. The results of the MICMAC analysis revealed the main role of 14 key variables in the application of the Internet of Things technology to the Smartization of tourist destinations in Fars province. On the other hand, two strong scenarios, 1548 weak scenarios, and nine scenarios with high compatibility were obtained using the Scenario Wizard software. Accordingly, the study used the aforementioned nine high-compatibility scenarios, finding that the future of tourism in Fars province would be similar to the current circumstances. It was also found that the trend of changes in the status of tourism would be slow and that the chances of applying the Internet of Things technology to the province’s tourism destinations would be low. Finally, based on the obtained scenarios, the study proposed some strategies to achieve the desired results in smart tourism. Therefore, the results of the current study could help tourism professionals prepare the ground for the application of state-of-the-art technologies such as the Internet of Things to tourism and thus develop the field through setting long-term plans. Manuscript profile
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  10 - Investigating the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation using the LARS-WG model (case study: Bashar river basin)
  Hamid reza Panahi Hossein Montaseri Aliakbar Hekmat zadeh Reza Khalili
  The increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with More

  The increase of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in temperature have caused the balance of the earth's climate system and climate changes in most areas of the earth. Therefore, adapting and dealing with climate changes in the water resources sector along with reducing their reflection should be seriously addressed as part of a comprehensive regional response to the vulnerability caused by climate change. In this study, using LARS-WG exponential microscale software and the HadCM3 oceanic atmospheric general circulation model in the form of different scenarios defined in the fourth IPCC report (basic scenarios), including scenario A1, A2, B1, B2, which are more related to regional issues. And the world is concerned from an economic and environmental point of view, the amount of temperature changes and precipitation in the next 100 years of Bashar river basin was predicted. Then the fifth report scenario (RCP) was used and the results were compared with the basic scenarios. The results showed that in both scenarios in the coming period, we will face a large increase in average air temperature, but the decrease in precipitation will not be significant. In the climate change scenario section, RCPs until the end of the 21st century indicate an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the coming years. The amount of temperature changes in RCP2.6 was estimated between 3 and 13% and in RCP8.5 between 4 and 14%; This increase in temperature on a large scale increases evaporation and prolongs drought periods. Manuscript profile
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  11 - Scenarios and Patterns of Future Higher Education in the Horizon of 1410
  Reza Mahdi masoud shafiee Ahmad keykha
  Researching the future, developing future scenarios, and providing requirements and solutions to face the future are essential responsibilities of policymakers, leaders, and planners of higher education. Various factors and drivers, especially information and communicat More

  Researching the future, developing future scenarios, and providing requirements and solutions to face the future are essential responsibilities of policymakers, leaders, and planners of higher education. Various factors and drivers, especially information and communication technologies and digital developments, have transformed universities' role in shaping the more comprehensive higher education system. In this article, based on the study of Orr et al. (2020), five scenarios and models of higher education for 2010 are presented. These scenarios include Tamagotchi, Jenga, Lego, Transformer, and Garbage Can. The Tamagotchi model is a classic approach to higher education that begins immediately after high school, leads to a bachelor's or master's degree, leads to a job, and ends the path to higher education. The Jenga model is more attractive to non-traditional students in short-term learning courses and focuses on the following stages of self-learning and organization. The Lego model is named separate composite modules of different sizes that create a self-contained, non-standardized learning path rather than a compact unit. The Transformer model represents learners who may be extended past their primary education but return to higher education to gain new knowledge or upgrade needed skills. According to this model, everyone should have opportunities to leave their current career path and change it. In the Garbage Can scenario, learners choose a combination of Tamagotchi, Jenga, Lego, and Transformer scenarios according to their work-life situation and individual goals. Universities and educational institutions depend on the institutional mission and focal values. In this scenario, applicants and academic institutions will have multiple teaching-learning choices. Digital developments are technical innovation and social innovation, the consequences of which should be considered for society, the labor market, and the higher education systemThe Tamagotchi model is a classic approach to higher education that begins immediately after high school, leads to a bachelor's or master's degree, leads to a job, and ends the path to higher education. The Jenga model is more attractive to non-traditional students in short-term learning courses and focuses on the next stages of self-learning and organization. The LEGO model is named as separate composite modules of different sizes that create a self-contained, non-standardized learning path rather than a compact unit. The transformer model represents learners who may be long past their basic education, but return to higher education to gain new knowledge or upgrade needed skills. According to this model, everyone should have opportunities to leave their current career path and change it. In the Karbeijken scenario, learners choose a combination of Tamagotchi, Jenga, Lego, and Transformer scenarios according to their work-life situation and individual goals, and universities and educational institutions depending on the institutional mission and focal values.. Manuscript profile
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  12 - Digital developments and perspectives of future higher education in the horizon of 1410
  Ahmad keykha Masoud Shafiee Reza Mahdi
  Extensive environmental changes havecovered all political,economic,social,technologicaland environmentalsystems.Meanwhile, the science and technology system ingeneral and thehigher education anduniversitysystem in particular have been subjected tofundamental changes.Bas More

  Extensive environmental changes havecovered all political,economic,social,technologicaland environmentalsystems.Meanwhile, the science and technology system ingeneral and thehigher education anduniversitysystem in particular have been subjected tofundamental changes.Based on the available evidence,it can be said that the level and depth of higher education and university developments will increase in the future.Therefore,future research of higher education and university and predicting future scenarios and preparing tools and solutions to face the future is oneof the important tasks of policy makers,leadersand experts of higher education.Among a variety of factors and drivers,digital transformations have significantly changed the role of universities to shape a more open higher education system.In this view,education becomes accessible to all people who can benefit from it. Based on the research of Lubke et al.(2020),this article seeks a more detailed analysis of the upcoming developments in higher education until the end of the current decade.In this article,five presuppositions,including the perspective of unexperienced innovation,the perspective of transfer and modernization through digitalization,the perspectiveof realism,the perspective of the learner,and the perspective of diversity in higher education,are determined as basis for searching for future higher education concepts.Future scenarios show the necessity of universities moving towards digitization and following the smart university model. According to the changes in the labor market,it will be necessary to redefine and reorganize the higher education system based on these changes.Digitization should be established at different levels of the university and systematically developed in the form of a digital society.Graduates' career paths will vary,and a pre-defined same careerpath cannot and should not be consideredfor graduates. Manuscript profile
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  13 - Liquidity Risk Prediction Using News Sentiment Analysis
  hamed mirashk albadvi albadvi mehrdad kargari Mohammad Ali Rastegar Mohammad Talebi
  One of the main problems of Iranian banks is the lack of risk management process with a forward-looking approach, and one of the most important risks in banks is liquidity risk. Therefore, predicting liquidity risk has become an important issue for banks. Conventional m More

  One of the main problems of Iranian banks is the lack of risk management process with a forward-looking approach, and one of the most important risks in banks is liquidity risk. Therefore, predicting liquidity risk has become an important issue for banks. Conventional methods of measuring liquidity risk are complex, time-consuming and expensive, which makes its prediction far from possible. Predicting liquidity risk at the right time can prevent serious problems or crises in the bank. In this study, it has been tried to provide an innovative solution for predicting bank liquidity risk and leading scenarios by using the approach of news sentiment analysis. The news sentiment analysis approach about one of the Iranian banks has been used in order to identify dynamic and effective qualitative factors in liquidity risk to provide a simpler and more efficient method for predicting the liquidity risk trend. The proposed method provides practical scenarios for real-world banking risk decision makers. The obtained liquidity risk scenarios are evaluated in comparison with the scenarios occurring in the bank according to the guidelines of the Basel Committee and the opinion of banking experts to ensure the correctness of the predictions and its alignment. The result of periodically evaluating the studied scenarios indicates a relatively high accuracy. The accuracy of prediction in possible scenarios derived from the Basel Committee is 95.5% and in scenarios derived from experts' opinions, 75%. Manuscript profile