List of Articles SVAR

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  1 - The Effect of Oil Shocks on Political, Financial and Economic Instability in Iran's Economy
  Seyyedeh Zahra  Behrouzi Hadi Keshavarz Parviz  Hajiani
  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the f More

  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the framework of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model in the period of 1379:4-1398. The results of the impulse response functions show that the positive oil price shock has led to an increase in the political risk index in the short term, which was in accordance with theoretical expectations. Also, the positive shock of the total demand has followed the positive reaction of the risk index and has led to the decrease of risk. Sanctions have recorded the greatest effect on political risk. The positive shock of oil supply and total demand has led to a significant reduction in financial risk. The economic risk also shows a significant reaction to the total demand shock and the sanctions shock, as a result of which the risk increases.The results of variance decomposition show that among the three risks (oil price, oil supply, and oil demand), oil shocks have the greatest impact on financial, political, and economic risks, respectively. Financial and economic risk had the greatest effect from the total demand shock and political risk from the oil price shock. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
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  2 - The Effect of Oil Shocks on Political, Financial and Economic Instability in Iran's Economy
  Seyyedeh Zahra  Behrouzi دکتر هادی  کشاورز Parviz  Hajiani
  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the f More

  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the framework of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model in the period of 1379:4-1398. The results of the impulse response functions show that the positive oil price shock has led to an increase in the political risk index in the short term, which was in accordance with theoretical expectations. Also, the positive shock of the total demand has followed the positive reaction of the risk index and has led to the decrease of risk. Sanctions have recorded the greatest effect on political risk. The positive shock of oil supply and total demand has led to a significant reduction in financial risk. The economic risk also shows a significant reaction to the total demand shock and the sanctions shock, as a result of which the risk increases.The results of variance decomposition show that among the three risks (oil price, oil supply, and oil demand), oil shocks have the greatest impact on financial, political, and economic risks, respectively. Financial and economic risk had the greatest effect from the total demand shock and political risk from the oil price shock. Manuscript profile
• Open Access Article
  • Abstract Page
  • Full-Text
  
  3 - Monetary shocks and evaluation of real exchange rate overshooting in Iran
  Alameh  Ehsani Baei وحید  تقی نژاد عمران Maryam Khalili Asl
  Exchange rate fluctuations are very important in spreading and creating economic shocks. Knowing the effective factors in creating exchange rate instability is very important and can be a guide for economic policy makers. Monetary shocks have been one of the effective f More

  Exchange rate fluctuations are very important in spreading and creating economic shocks. Knowing the effective factors in creating exchange rate instability is very important and can be a guide for economic policy makers. Monetary shocks have been one of the effective factors in causing the exchange rate to jump. The main question in this article is to what extent monetary shocks cause overshooting of the exchange rate. Dornbusch model is used to identify structural shocks. For this purpose, the research model has been estimated using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) technique and seasonal data during the years 1999-2017.The experimental results of the research indicate the positive and significant effect of monetary shocks on the real rate. Therefore, due to the fact that changes in the amount of money cause fluctuations in the exchange rate and the overshooting phenomenon in the exchange rate, it is suggested that the government refrain from creating monetary shocks and that follow the appropriate monetary rule is inspired by Friedman's monetary rule or Taylor's monetary rule based on the limitation of money growth to the extent of economic growth. Manuscript profile