Forecasting the Number of Telecommunication Services’ Subscribers for the Next Years in the Country
Subject Areas : electrical and computer engineeringمنصور شیخان 1 , محمداسماعیل کلانتری 2
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Abstract :
Estimating the number of basic telephony services (fixed and mobile) and also residential users and enterprise subscribers of data services for the next years (up to 1389), is the goal of this paper. To predict the number of basic telephony services, the Cobb-Douglas model, which uses the two important factors (the subscriber’s income and charge of service), is utilized. An increase of 18.48 and 27.18 million subscribers for fixed and mobile telephony services is predicted, respectively (in the time interval of 1385-89). The accuracy of estimates is also validated by comparing the results with actual numbers of subscription in the past years and also with global norms in the world (published by International Telecommunication Union). The potential number of residential users of data services is estimated to be about 14.43 million (or penetration rate of 19.6 percent for internet users), and enterprise subscribers about 217 thousand (in addition to governmental organizations) at the end of 1389. Finally, a range of demanded data services along with their required bit rates are identified in order to be used in bandwidth forecast and allocation in the next generation networks.
