Foresight

Open Access Article

1 - Iran's Cognitive Science and Technology Foresight, Using Scenario Planning Approach
habibollah tataeian alimorteza birang alinaghi khrazi amir nazemi

In the near future cognitive science along with nano, bio and information technology (known as NBIC), can lead to a turning point and start a golden age by improving human's mental and physical performance. Based on this, in this research, by exploring foresight activit More

In the near future cognitive science along with nano, bio and information technology (known as NBIC), can lead to a turning point and start a golden age by improving human's mental and physical performance. Based on this, in this research, by exploring foresight activities of other countries as well as indentifying the effective drivers of the future of cognitive science and technology, we are going to develope the future scenarios of the field in Iran in 2020 horizon. We use two methods inorder to identify the drivers: literature review and interviews with experts. Then, using a delphi survey the future uncertainties has been explored. Thus, the 4 scenarios which depict the future of cognitive science and technologies has been presented by using the 2 dimensional space resulting from the explored below uncertainties: the convergence and divergence of stakeholders and the engineering the mind approach against empowering the mind approach. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

2 - Cyber Threats Foresight Against Iran Based on Attack Vector
mahdi omrani masoud shafiee siavash khorsandi

Cyber threats have been extraordinary increased in recent years. Cyber attackers, including government agencies or hackers, have made significant advances in the use of various tools for attacking target systems in some countries particularly on Islamic republic of More

Cyber threats have been extraordinary increased in recent years. Cyber attackers, including government agencies or hackers, have made significant advances in the use of various tools for attacking target systems in some countries particularly on Islamic republic of Iran. The complexity of cyber threats and the devastating effects of them on critical systems highlights necessity of cyber threats Foresight. This research can prepare the country for countering cyber threats based on existing and potential attack Vectors. First of all, 18 major cyber threats drivers base on attack Vectors through reviewing resources and interviewing with seven experts were identified. We use cross-impact analysis Future studies method to indicate main drivers of future cyber threats such as social engineering, Denial of service, ransomwares, spoofing and fraud and non-state actors. Mic Mac software will be used for this step. Finally, future scenarios for cyber threats were identified by using scenario-based approach. Scenario Wizard software will be used. The results of the research include two strong scenarios and 18 possible scenarios, based on the strongest scenario, ransomware, spoofing, fraud, social engineering and Denial of service are the most likely cyber threats by non-state actors through in a limited level Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - Science and technology problem in future

Scientific results about Foresighting show that the most change in this field are due to development of science and technology. We also can see that the recent problems such as leakages of water, air pollution and traffic are because of upgrading, science of technology More

Scientific results about Foresighting show that the most change in this field are due to development of science and technology. We also can see that the recent problems such as leakages of water, air pollution and traffic are because of upgrading, science of technology too Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - Explains perferable scenario of areal integrated development and optimal strategies for its implementation (Case Study: Minoodasht township)
rasoul ghorbani

Present research explains the perferable scenario of areal integrated development and optimal strategies for its implementation in Minoodasht township. First step in this research was identifed and analyzed the effective factors in areal integrated development with emph More

Present research explains the perferable scenario of areal integrated development and optimal strategies for its implementation in Minoodasht township. First step in this research was identifed and analyzed the effective factors in areal integrated development with emphasis on rural-urban linkages. In this regard used the Delphi method and cross-effects matrix(Mic-Mac software). In this way, 28 factors were identified as key factors. The second step is to explain the plausible and probable future and build the scenario. At this stage, plausible futures were firstly determined on the basis of key drivers. Within these futures, probabilistic futures were identified, and then the likelihood of realization of each of these believable situations was as follows in the form of a five-choice Likert spectrum (very much Low to very high). Accordingly, the situation with their score above the average (x = 3) was identified as probable future, which was the basis for mapping the desired scenario. Based on the findings of this section, the focus is on the development of tourism activities. To select the best strategies used SWOT model and hierarchical analysis model. The findings of this section also show that aggressive strategies are the most effective strategy. The hierarchical analysis model also showed that the top strategy among the aggressive strategies presented is based on the combination and development types of tourism as a tourist package, introducing and presenting attractions, facilities, programs, etc., through the capacity of cyberspace. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - Proposed Process for Urban Development Plans Based on Foresight Approach
علی رضا بندرآباد

In the past few decades, the traditional pattern of comprehensive plans has been criticized by a purely rational planning approach. The critique and evaluation of this method of study, first in the countries that invented the comprehensive plan and gradually transferred More

In the past few decades, the traditional pattern of comprehensive plans has been criticized by a purely rational planning approach. The critique and evaluation of this method of study, first in the countries that invented the comprehensive plan and gradually transferred to other countries that producing the plan. Foresight study as a complementary complement to a strategic planning in cases where long-term planning is required has a high dynamic planning environment, there is a high degree of uncertainty in the system, the risk of planning failure is high. , The system has a lot of complexity, is used. This paper tries to identify the foresight approach indicators and process of developing urban development plans based on the foresight approach. The purpose of this research is in the field of fundamental-applied research, and is the dominant topic of interpretation and qualitative research approach. The method of collecting and processing data is through studying, viewing and interviewing. The method of data analysis using deep interviewing method and open questionnaire in the form of Delphi technique in order to obtain elite and expert opinions in the field of planning and future studies and in order to determine the indicators and criteria of the prospective study approach. Finally, the overall process of developing urban plans based on a fresight study approach is also expressed in terms of background and similar processes of foresight in the world and in Iran. The proposed process of this study consists of seven main stages of understanding, collecting information, analyzing information, screening and interpreting information, fresight, output (evaluation and decision), implementation and execution. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

6 - Pathology of Materialization of Urban Plans in Iran And Providing Proposal in Respect of its Promotion Case Study: District 22 of Tehran
jamaladin daryabari abbas bakhshandehnosrat

Prevailing Low level of materialization of urban plans in the country may not be denied. The issue may be studied from the two following perspective: formulating efficient strategies and proper implementation of strategies. Proper formulation of strategy is related to p More

Prevailing Low level of materialization of urban plans in the country may not be denied. The issue may be studied from the two following perspective: formulating efficient strategies and proper implementation of strategies. Proper formulation of strategy is related to plan and appropriate implementation of strategy is related to management. Therefore, in process of urban planning and management, formulation steps of plans and extraction of strategies have to be redefined. On the other hand, streaming strategies has to be explained as the neglected dimension in process of urban planning. In the research, effort has been made for the reasons of failing urban plans in implementation phase to be studied. Data have been collected and interpreted through library study, analyzing documents and expert views. Finally, a model has been proposed with emphasis on futures studies in urban planning. In the model, effort has been made to consider factors effective on failure of plans; and, to respond to those cases recognized as obstacles of materialization of plans. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Feasibility of Integrated Urban Management Feasibility with Forecasting Approach (Tehran Metropolitan Case Study)
solmaz sanaei Farzaneh Salami Bakhtyar Ezatpanah

A city is a container composed of several elements. Since urban operations involve a large number of related elements at different decision levels, integrated urban management to coordinate efforts at different levels is an irrefutable necessity. The purpose of this res More

A city is a container composed of several elements. Since urban operations involve a large number of related elements at different decision levels, integrated urban management to coordinate efforts at different levels is an irrefutable necessity. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the integrated urban management of Tehran with a forward-looking approach. For this purpose, the documentary-library method has been used to collect information. In this research, 24 indicators have been used in 4 components (knowledge and information, education, citizen and citizen participation, management), which is used to check the association between these indicators using the MICCHA software and finally with this software. Proponents have been extracted. Wizard scenario software has been used for analyzing propagators and scenarios. The results of the research show that the integrated management situation in the city of Tehran has not been in a proper position. The extracted scenarios on Tehran's single urban management include golden scenarios, disasters and intersections, which, according to experts, are likely to materialize the catastrophe scenario in the future of Tehran. This scenario is the worst scenario. To overcome the disaster scenario and the city's tendency to improve the integrated management and to some extent align with the golden scenario of the proposals. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

8 - Innovation Strategy Process framework for Organizations with Foresight Approch
Fateme Saghafi Kolsom Abbasi shahkoh Akbar Kari dolat abadi

The emersion of new technology enhances the man’s expectation of welfare’s level and life’s quality. The research studies have shown that innovation which is based on new technologies, creates new bazaars’ and enhanced the volume of bazaar. Bazaar’s demand in one side a More

The emersion of new technology enhances the man’s expectation of welfare’s level and life’s quality. The research studies have shown that innovation which is based on new technologies, creates new bazaars’ and enhanced the volume of bazaar. Bazaar’s demand in one side and new technologies on the other side, is caused innovation strategy planning framework should be as a organizations necessity. In this paper, first innovation processes is investigated. Due to Strategic thinking and future opportunities explorations needs to identifications of future trends and foresight, so in the second step, foresight and its functionalities is presented. Then the effect of foresight functionalities on innovation process is analyzed. In the third step, a proposed framework for innovation strategy in organizations is presented based on effectiveness strategy process structure and then the stage of this framework is explained. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

9 - A Framework for Evaluating Information Technology Foresight Projects
Maryam Mohamedpour Fateme Saghafi

There is a large consensus among academics and practitioners that ICT investments should be carefully justified, measured and controlled. ICT investments have special characteristics such as; high risks, limited return of investment, large proportion of intangible/hidde More

There is a large consensus among academics and practitioners that ICT investments should be carefully justified, measured and controlled. ICT investments have special characteristics such as; high risks, limited return of investment, large proportion of intangible/hidden costs and benefits. These characteristics are highlighted for ICT foresight projects. There are many papers for evaluating ICT projects with BSC (Balanced Score Card), but there is no work for evaluating IT foresight projects. This paper presents a framework for using balance score card for evaluating IT foresight projects. The result should be beneficial for researchers, managers, decision makers and investors. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

10 - Introduction of Foresight: A look into initial experience of Japan, Germany and Iran
Omid Majd Rahim Abadi Afsoon Fahtollahi

According to this fact that undoubtedly in this competitive and complex world foresight is unavoidable; this article is trying to not only showing the necessity and emergence of the foresight but also describe some conception and to highlight the difference of foresight More

According to this fact that undoubtedly in this competitive and complex world foresight is unavoidable; this article is trying to not only showing the necessity and emergence of the foresight but also describe some conception and to highlight the difference of foresight and other similar concept like forecast. In this article the foresight will be also categorized concerning different perspective, as well as describing some common methods to performing foresight. Finally we will take a look into the first experience of the initial foresight projects in Japan and Germany and in contrary; we will discuss the initial experience of foresight projects in Iran. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

11 - Soft Technology and Forth Generation of Technology Foresight
Mohammadreza Mirza amini Zhiuoeing Jin

This article elaborates earlier arguments about the practical and intellectual value of soft technology by showing how the enlightened application of that concept in the field of technology foresight (or technological forecasting) would improve the effectiveness of the More

This article elaborates earlier arguments about the practical and intellectual value of soft technology by showing how the enlightened application of that concept in the field of technology foresight (or technological forecasting) would improve the effectiveness of the field. It also shows how the evolution of technology foresight as a profession and academic field has, in its own way, facilitated the development of soft technology. It also argues that technology foresight techniques are themselves an example of soft technology. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

12 - Strategic Policy Intelligence
Mohammadreza Mirza amini

In the present information age, methodologies that help structure, combine and interpret information are getting more and more importance as decision support tools. Techniques like Technology Forecasting, Technology Assessment and Technology Foresight are used in order More

In the present information age, methodologies that help structure, combine and interpret information are getting more and more importance as decision support tools. Techniques like Technology Forecasting, Technology Assessment and Technology Foresight are used in order to generate knowledge about current technological developments and derive possible future trajectories. The present report regards these three techniques within the perspective of Strategic Intelligence, which focuses on their role as instruments supporting decision-making processes. The general introduction on the field of Strategic Intelligence in chapter one reveals the general role of Strategic Intelligence in technology-related decision-making processes. Then summarize the main contents of the three individual reports on Technology Forecast,Technology Assessment and Technology Foresight. By focusing on the decision-maker, each report provides an overview of the characteristics and current state of the art, shows their main strengths, and identifies overlaps and synergies. Finally, presents a concluding critique of Strategic Intelligence and reveals how these three techniques could be used for obtaining a complete picture of possible technological developments. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

13 - Modeling of Foresight for Sustainable Development Using Scenario Planning and System dynamics Approach (case study: Yazd Province)
حمید بابایی میبدی Gholamreza Godarzi Adel Azar Firozeh Azizi

Nowadays, the wide changes in various dimensions put managers in serious challenges. This issues cause the current plans will no longer be able to response, therefore it is necessary to use new approaches such as foresighting. Meanwhile, one of the main concerns of mana More

Nowadays, the wide changes in various dimensions put managers in serious challenges. This issues cause the current plans will no longer be able to response, therefore it is necessary to use new approaches such as foresighting. Meanwhile, one of the main concerns of managers is the effect of their decisions on the key variables. This study using a foresight and systematic approaches and design the dynamic sustainable development model to seeks an answer to this important management issue. First we presented a framework for sustainable development and then, using the “Mic Mac” method identified the key drivers of sustainable development. In the next step, by designing a scenario portfolio, future possible scenarios for sustainable development were determined. Finally, by designing a regional sustainable development model, it is possible to simulate scenarios and decisions, and determine the appropriate scenarios from the possible multi-dimensional scenarios Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

14 - The developed framework for the conceptual model of the Strategic Foresight for Creativity-Based Rural Tourism in Iran in Horizon of 2045
Farhad Darvishi Sehtolani Bijan Khalil-Moghaddam Rohullah Bayat Safar Fazli Ali Zangiabadi

Purpose: Considering the importance and position of rural tourism and creative approach in the development of the future rural of Iran, and also considering the lack of a study in the field of Creativity-Based Rural Tourism based on a future-oriented perspective; How to More

Purpose: Considering the importance and position of rural tourism and creative approach in the development of the future rural of Iran, and also considering the lack of a study in the field of Creativity-Based Rural Tourism based on a future-oriented perspective; How to conduct such a research is questionable. Therefore, the main goal of article is to present the framework of the proposed model for the strategic foresight of the development of Iran's Creativity-Based Rural Tourism in horizon of 2045. Research Methodology: This article based on the purpose, is developmental and applied type and is among qualitative, interpretive, exploratory, inductive, survey and descriptive researches. The statistical population includes literature related to the research title published from 2000 to 2020. Information sampling method and representative sampling method were used. The statistical sample consists of 40 studies. To collectting data and information, the survey and qualitative trend extrapolation methods were used, and meta-analysis method was used for analysis. Findings: The proposed model consisting of 3 stages. The input phase is intellectual and software in nature and with the purpose of preparation. The intellectualization stage includes knowledge acquisition, integration and intellectualization, and finally creation as an output that includes two tangible products and intangible. Discussion and conclusion: In the mentioned proposed model, the intended platform for the realization of the model is a collaborative, networked, flexible and sliding platform, creativity-oriented and based on continuous education (pluralism and connoisseurship), and the factor of imagination and creativity plays a prominent role in design and implementation. Manuscript profile

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