Examining the Relationship Between the Human Development Index and Suicide Rates at Provincial Level in Iran: A Secondary Analysis of Official Statistics (2011–2021)
Subject Areas : Research on Iranian social issues
Esmaeel Jahani Dolatabad
1
,
hossein Heidari
2
1 - Department of History and Sociology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
2 -
Keywords: Human Development Index, Education, Income, Suicide Rate, Secondary Analysis.,
Abstract :
Examining the Relationship Between the Human Development Index and Suicide Rates at Provincial Level in Iran: A Secondary Analysis of Official Statistics (2011–2021)
Esmaeil Jahanidolatabad*
Hossein Heidari**
The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the Human Development Index and suicide rates across the provinces of Iran. The research employed a secondary data analysis approach, with suicide data obtained from the Legal Medicine Organization and human development indicators extracted from the World Health Organization. Findings indicate that suicide rates at both national and provincial levels exhibited an increasing trend during the 2011–2021 decade. Results reveal a positive and statistically significant relationship between the Human Development Index and suicide rates, such that provinces with higher levels of human development, on average, displayed higher suicide rates. Among the sub-indices, the education and income components show positive and significant associations with suicide rates, whereas the health index does not demonstrate a significant relationship. Moreover, changes in the Human Development Index particularly changes in the education index over the study period are positively and significantly correlated with increases in provincial suicide rates. Regression analysis indicates that the combination of human development variables explains 40% of the variance in suicide rates, with changes in the education and income indices contributing the most. These results suggest that human development in Iran is not necessarily associated with reductions in social harms and, at certain levels, correlates with increased psychological pressures, social fragmentation, and crises of meaning, highlighting the need to reconceptualize human development with an emphasis on the quality of social relations, distributive justice, and social cohesion.
Keywords: Human Development Index; Education; Income; Suicide Rate; Secondary Analysis.
Introduction
Since its emergence, sociology has been concerned with understanding the formation of social order, collective cohesion, and the conditions under which accepted norms are disrupted. From this perspective, phenomena such as suicide, addiction, delinquency, and other forms of social deviance are not regarded as merely individual behaviors; rather, they are reflections of the structural, cultural, and institutional arrangements of a society. Emphasizing the social nature of suicide, Durkheim demonstrated that this phenomenon should not be analyzed solely at the individual psychological level, but must be examined in relation to the degree of social integration and regulation. Merton, in turn, conceptualized deviance as the outcome of a discrepancy between culturally prescribed goals and the legitimate means of achieving them, showing that unequal structural conditions can foster the emergence of deviant behaviors.
The central question of the present study is whether improvements in human development indicators in Iran’s provinces necessarily lead to a reduction in social harms, or whether, under specific social and cultural conditions, this relationship may be different, complex, or even reversed. From this vantage point, suicide is not simply an individual or psychological phenomenon; it is a social event shaped by macro-structures of development, inequality, quality of life, and institutional transformations.
A considerable body of international research has sought to examine the relationships between development, education, income, health, and various social outcomes. A strand of this literature assumes that increasing levels of human development should naturally be accompanied by reductions in harms such as poverty, violence, and suicide, given that development enhances both access to resources and quality of life. However, empirical findings have not consistently confirmed such a straightforward relationship. In some cases, economic and social growth has been accompanied by rising expectations, competitive pressures, status inequalities, and the erosion of traditional support systems, thereby contributing to increases in certain social problems, including suicide.
In Iran, the absence of provincial and longitudinal studies that simultaneously investigate the relationship between the Human Development Index and its components (income, education, and health) and suicide rates has imposed serious limitations on understanding the mechanisms underlying this socio-psychological phenomenon. This gap becomes particularly salient in light of the substantial economic, cultural, and social differences across provinces. Each province exhibits distinct conditions with respect to economic opportunities, educational attainment, access to health services, and social support networks, all of which may alter the shape and intensity of the relationship between human development and suicide. Accordingly, the main research question of this study is whether the Human Development Index and its components were associated with suicide rates in Iran’s provinces during the decade 2011–2021, and, if so, what patterns and mechanisms characterize this relationship. Addressing this question can provide a basis for formulating more effective policies for suicide prevention and for promoting psychosocial well-being at the provincial level.
Methodology
This study employs an analytical–exploratory design and is based on the secondary analysis of official statistics. Data on suicide were obtained from the Iranian Legal Medicine Organization, and data related to human development indicators were drawn from World Health Organization (WHO) sources. The temporal scope of the study covers the years 2011 to 2021, and the unit of analysis is the provinces of Iran. In this research, the dependent variable is the provincial suicide rate, while the main independent variable is the Human Development Index and its components, namely education, income, and health. Relying on statistical methods, the article examines the relationships among these variables and, in particular, uses regression analysis to assess the extent to which variations in suicide rates can be explained by human development indicators. The use of secondary analysis allows the researcher to address new research questions without collecting primary data, by drawing on existing statistical sources—an approach that is especially important in macro-level and regional social studies. Accordingly, the study has a cross-sectional comparative character at the provincial level, even though the data have been collected and analyzed over a multi-year period. The methodological logic of the article is to compare provinces and track changes in the Human Development Index and suicide rates over time in order to identify patterns of correlation and influence between them. The statistical results derived from these analyses are used to test the research hypotheses.
Findings
The findings of the article indicate that during the 2010s, suicide rates increased at both the national and provincial levels. This result suggests that, contrary to common expectations, suicide in Iran followed an upward trend over the study period and cannot be regarded as a problem confined to only a few specific provinces. Furthermore, the results show a positive and statistically significant relationship between the Human Development Index and suicide rates; in other words, in provinces with higher levels of human development, suicide rates were in many cases also higher.
At the component level, the findings are likewise noteworthy. The article reports that education and income are positively and significantly associated with suicide rates, whereas the health component is not statistically significant. This result is particularly important, as it demonstrates that not all dimensions of human development are related to suicide in the same way. Some components especially education and income—may, through specific social mechanisms, be linked to an increase in psycho-social harms. Conversely, the non-significance of the health component may indicate that, at the provincial level, its effect on suicide is neither direct nor obvious, or that it is shaped by other mediating variables.
The findings also show that changes in the Human Development Index, particularly in the education component, are positively correlated with increases in suicide rates. This suggests that development in its conventional sense, at least within the Iranian social context, has not necessarily led to a reduction in social problems and, in some cases, has been accompanied by rising tensions and harms. One of the key quantitative results of the study is that the regression model explains 40 percent of the variance in suicide rates. This proportion reflects a relatively substantial explanatory power of the model, although a considerable share of the variation in suicide rates remains dependent on other factors.
Discussion
In the discussion section, the article emphasizes that the relationship between human development and suicide in Iran is neither simple nor linear. Contrary to the common expectation that improvements in human development should lead to a reduction in social harms, the findings indicate that within the Iranian context, increases in certain human development indicators have been accompanied by higher suicide rates. This pattern may be explained through several social mechanisms. First, development may raise expectations, intensify social comparisons, and generate pressures for success. Second, the expansion of education and income if not accompanied by social justice, cultural cohesion, and institutional support may produce new inequalities and feelings of relative deprivation. Third, developmental transformations may weaken traditional patterns of social support and solidarity. The findings are implicitly consistent with perspectives that emphasize the dual nature of development: development is not only a source of opportunities but also a potential generator of tension, pressure, and social harm. In this regard, the article demonstrates that the Human Development Index in Iran does not necessarily reflect a comprehensive improvement in social well-being. Relying solely on increases in education or income cannot automatically be expected to reduce suicide rates. Rather, it is necessary to incorporate factors such as the quality of social institutions, distributive justice, psychosocial support systems, and social capital into the analysis. In conclusion, the study suggests that human development in Iran has not necessarily been accompanied by a reduction in social harms, including suicide. Therefore, social policy should avoid a one-dimensional approach to development and should distinguish between the growth of quantitative indicators and their actual social consequences. Accordingly, the study implicitly recommends that efforts to address suicide should not focus solely on expanding education or income levels; instead, greater attention should be given to strengthening social cohesion, reducing inequalities, expanding mental health services, and reforming supportive social policies.
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* Associate Professor, Department of History and Sociology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8983-448X
** Corresponding Author: Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Institute for Humanities and social Studies in ACECR, Tehran, Iran.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3763-2429
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Roh BR, Jung EH, Hong HJ. A Comparative Study of Suicide Rates among 10-19-Year-Olds in 29 OECD Countries. Psychiatry Investig. 2018 Apr;15(4):376-383.
https://doi.org/10.30773/pi.2017.08.02.
Shah, A. (2009) The relationship between elderly suicide rates and the human development index: a cross-national study of secondary data from the World Health Organization and the United Nations. International psychogeriatrics, 21(1), 69-77.
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suicide rates and elderly dependency ratios: a cross-national study using data from the WHO data bank. International Psychogeriatrics, 20(3), 596-604. https://doi.org/10.1017/S104161020700628X.
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