Does Militarization Lead to Air Pollution? Testing the Arms Versus Climate Hypothesis for the MENA Region
Subject Areas : environmental economy
1 - 1. PhD in Public Sector Economics, Department of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Lorestan University, Khoram Abad, Iran
Keywords: Militarization, Air Pollution, STIRPAT Model, Quantile Panel Regression, MENA countries,
Abstract :
According to the "arms versus climate" hypothesis proposed by Jorgenson et al. (2023), militarization can contribute to air pollution. In this context, the main objective of the present study is to test this hypothesis and answer the question: Has militarization led to an increase in CO₂ emissions in MENA countries during the period 2000–2022? Furthermore, based on the answer to this question, what appropriate environmental policies should countries in this region adopt regarding militarization in the future?.The research method is descriptive-analytical: the descriptive part is based on the documentary method, and the analytical part relies on econometric concepts. For this purpose, using a STIRPAT model to analyze factors influencing environmental degradation, this study examines the relationship between the Global Militarization Index and CO₂ emissions through empirical testing via the quantile panel regression method, using data from 16 MENA countries (including Iran).The results reveal that militarization has an insignificant effect on CO₂ emissions in lower quantiles (below the 25th percentile), but a significant and positive effect in higher quantiles (above the 25th percentile). This finding indicates that the positive impact of militarization on CO₂ emissions is not evident in MENA countries with lower air pollution levels, unlike countries with higher pollution levels.
Given that reducing militarization levels due to security concerns may be undesirable or unfeasible for many countries in the MENA region, those facing high levels of air pollution (such as Iran) should in the future utilize new technologies, invest in research and development, and adopt cleaner energy sources in their military activities to address climate change challenges.
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