Analyzing strategic effective drivers on public trust in government with foresight approach
Subject Areas :Mohammad Montazeri 1 , HAKEM GHASEMI 2 , Einollah keshavarz tork 3 , Mohammadreza Solhjou 4
1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -
Keywords: Trust in government, Futures studies, Structural analysis, .Cross-Impact Matrix,
Abstract :
Public trust in government todays faces serious and increasing challenges which have doubled the necessity of trying to influence its future trend. This study has been done with foresight approach and aims to identify strategic factors affecting the future of public trust in Islamic Republic of Iran on the horizon 2045. This research in terms of nature is descriptive-analytical and methodologically is based on mixed approach (qualitative-quantitative). Therefore, after conducting library studies and literature review and interviews with experts, a list of effective factors of public trust in Islamic Republic of Iran by using Delphi method was found and then these factors were minimized from 58 to 15 items. Then, by using structural analysis and the Cross-Impact Matrix was designed and by forming a panel consisting 11 experts and gathering their opinions about these factors, necessary data were entered into the matrix. By analyzing collected data, the influence of each factor was evaluated in MICMAC software. According to the results of this research, five factors including "combating corruption", "transparency", "not preferring of individual interests on public interest", "realization of social justice", and "honesty and integrity of the authorities" were identified as strategic effective factors on the future of public trust in Islamic Republic of Iran.
- خزائي، سعيد (1386). آينده¬پژوهي، مفاهيم و ضرورت¬ها، مركز آينده¬پژوهي علوم و فناوري دفاعي، موسسه آموزشي و تحقيقاتي صنايع دفاعي، تهران.
- رسولی، رضا و شهائی، بهنام (1388). فساد اداری در مدارس اموزشی: عوامل موثر بر پیدایش، گسترش و کاهش آن، نشریه مدیریت دولتی، شماره 3: 34-19.
- رشيدارده، حبيب¬الله و خزائي، سعيد (1395). شناسايي عوامل موثر راهبردي بر آينده صنعت بانكداري، فرآيند مديريت و توسعه، 29(3): 104-71.
- رنجبرنيا، بهزاد؛ روستايي، شهريور و پورمحمدي، محمدرضا (1397). تحليل عوامل موثر بر توسعه پايدار شهري با تاكيد بر شكاف ديجيتال به روش ميك¬مك فازي(مطالعه موردي: تبريز 2018) پژوهش¬هاي جغرافياي انساني، 50(4): 905-891.
- رهبر، فرهاد؛ سيف¬الدين¬اصل، اميرعلي؛ شاه¬حسيني، محمدعلي و نيازي، عيسي (1397). شناسايي و تحليل كلان¬روندهاي موثر بر بهاي نفت خام با رويكرد آينده¬نگاري، نشريه علمي پژوهشي بهبود مديريت، 12(2): 26-1.
- زالي، نادر (1388). آينده¬نگاري توسعه منطقه¬اي با رويكرد برنامه¬ريزي سناريومبنا (نمونه موردي: استان آذربايجان شرقي)؛ رساله دكتري، دانشكده علوم انساني و اجتماعي، دانشگاه تبريز.
- زالي، نادر و منصوري بيرجندي، سارا (1395). شناسايي راهبردهاي آسيب¬پذير توسعه اقتصادي منطقه با رويكرد برنامه¬ريزي فرض¬بنياد ABP (مطالعه موردي: استان تهران)، فصلنامه علمي پژوهشي برنامه¬ريزي وآمايش فضا، 20(1): 52-21.
- زاهدی، شمس السادات و خانباشی، محمد (1390). از اعتماد عمومی تا اعتماد سیاسی (پژوهشی پیرامون رابطه اعتماد عمومی واعتماد سیاسی در ایران)، فصلنامه پژوهش¬های مدیریت در ایران- مدرس علوم انسانی، 15(4): 96-73.
- شجاعي، صديقه¬بيگم؛ آهنگران، محمدرسول و روحاني¬مقدم، محمد (1398). فصلنامه رهيافت انقلاب اسلامي، 13(49): 150-133.
- عرفاني، مليحه و ميرچراغخاني، ياسر (1398). تعيين پيشران¬هاي توسعه گردشگري طبيعي و فرهنگي در سيستان با روش تجزيه و تحليل ساختاري، فصلنامه محيط زيست طبيعي، 72(1): 111-97.
- قلم¬بر، محمدعلي (1390). پيش¬بيني توسعه محصول با استفاده از رويكرد برنامه¬ريزي سناريومحور: مطالعه موردي صنعت نفت. رساله دكتري، دانشكده مديريت و حسابداري، دانشگاه شهيد بهشتي، تهران.
- مركز افكارسنجي دانشجويان ايران ايسپا (1395). گاما گزيده آثار ملي ايسپا، انتشارات جهاد دانشگاهي، تهران. - منصورزاده، محمدباقر و اميني،علي¬اكبر (1399). بررسي مقايسه¬اي مفهوم عدالت در انديشه ايرانشهري و انقلاب اسلامي، فصلنامه رهيافت انقلاب اسلامي، 14(50): 102-83.
-Anderson, M. R. (2010). Community psychology, political efficacy, and trust. Political Psychology, 31(1): 59–84.
-Chen, X., & Shi, T. (2001). Media effects on political confidence and trust in the People’s Republic of China in the post-Tiananmen period. East Asia: An International Quarterly, 19(3): 84–118.
-Chine, L., Djeddi, T., & Haidouchi, A. (2017). Foreign Direct Investment as an Instrument to Promote Entrepreneurship in Algeria: Structural Analysis Using MICMAC Method. Journal of Business and Management Sciences, 5(4): 120-124.
-Cooper, C. A., Gibbs, K. H., & Kathleen, B. M. (2008). The importance of trust in government for public administration: The case of zoning. Public Administration Review, 3: 459–467.
-Delgado-Serrano, M., Van wildemeersch, P., London, S., Ortiz-Guerrero, C. E., Escalante Semerena, R., & Rojas, M. (2016). Adapting prospective structural analysis to strengthen sustainable management and capacity building in community-based natural. Ecology and Society, 21(2): 1-13.
-Earle, T. C. (2010). Trust in risk management: A model based review of empirical research. Risk Analysis, 30(4): 541–574.
- Gronlund, K., & Setala, M. (2012). In Honest Officials We Trust: Institutional Confidence in Europe. The American Review of Public Administration, 42(5): 523-542.
-Hertogh, M. (2013). Why the ombudsman does not promote public trust in government: lessons from the Low Countries. Journal of Social Welfare & Family Law, 35(2): 245-258.
-Hetherington, M. J. (1999). The effect of political trust on the presidential vote, 1968–96. American Political Science Review, 94(2): 311–326.
-Houston, J. D., & Harding, L. H. (2013). Public Trust in Government Administrators: Explaining Citizen Perceptions of Trustworthiness and Competence. Public Integrity, 16(1): 53-76.
-Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10 (1): 4-21.
-Kim, S. (2010). Public trust in government in Japan and South Korea: Does the rise of critical citizens matter. Public Administration Review, 70(5): 801–810.
-Kim, Y. J., & Kim, E. S. (2016). Exploring the interrelationship between public service motivation and corruption theories. Evidence-based HRM: a Global Forum for Empirical Scholarship, 4(2): 181-186.
-Kong, D. T. (2014). Perceived Competence and Benevolence of Political Institutions as Culturally Universal Facilitators of Political Trust: Evidence from Arab Countries. Cross-Cultural Research, 48(4): 385–399.
-Lo, A. Y., Cheung, L. T., Lee, A. K., & Xu, B. (2016). Confidence and Trust in Public Institution Natural Hazards Management: Case Studies in Urban and Rural China. The Professional Geographer, 68(3): 475-484.
-Martin, B. R. (2002). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2): 139-168.
-McKnight, D. H., Choudhury, V., & Kacmar, C. (2002). Developing and validating trust measures for e-commerce: An integrative typology. Information Systems Research, 13: 334-359.
-Metlay, D. (1999). Institutional trust and confidence: A journey into a conceptual quagmire. In Social trust and the management of risk, ed. G. Cvetkovich, and R. E. L€ofstedt, 100–16. London: Earthscan.
-Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2001). What are the origins of political trust?: Testing institutional and cultural theories in post-communist societies. Comparative Political Studies, 34 (1): 30–62.
-Nooteboom, B. (2007). Social capital, institutions and trust. Review of Social Economy, 65 (1): 29–53.
-Poppo, L., & Schepker, J. D. (2010). Repairing Public Trust in Organizations. Corporate Reputation Review, 13(2): 124-141.
-Porumbescu, G. (2017). Linking Transparency to Trust in Government and Voice. The American Review of Public Administration, 47(5): 520-537.
-Seebregts, A. J., Goldstein, G. A., & Smekens, K. (2001). Energy/environmental modeling with the MARKAL family of models. Operations Research Proceedings, 2001(Duisburg: Springer): 75–82.
-Shim, J., & Park, J. H. (2016). Public participation and trust in government: the case of the Korean Financial Regulatory Agency. Public Performance & Management Review, (2016): 1–24.
-Smirnova, M., & Scanlon, P. (2016). Experience and cultural-repertoire based avenuse of trust: An analysis of public trust in statistical agencies and their data. Social Policy & Society, 2016: 1-18.
-Stoyan, A. T., Niedzwiecki, S., Morgan, J., Hartlyn, J., & Espinal, R. (2014). Trust in government institutions: The effects of performance and participation in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. International Political Science Review, 37(1): 18-35.
-Thomas, C. W. (1998). Maintaining and restoring public trust in government agencies and their employees. Administration and Society, 30(2): 166–192.
-Walker, R. M., & P. Hills. (2014). Changing dimensions of trust in government: An exploration in environmental policy in Hong Kong. Public Administration and Development, 34 (2): 123–36.
-Wang, Z., & You, Y. (2016). The arrival of critical citizens: decline of political trust and shifting public priorities in China. International Review of Sociology, 26(1): 105-124.
-Weng, W. W., Woo. C. K., Cheng. Y. S., Ho. T., Horowitz. I. (2015). Public trust and corruption perception: disaster relief. Applied Economics, 47(46): 4967-4981.
-Zhao, D., & Hu, W. (2017). Determinants of public trust in government: Empirical evidence from urban China. International Review of Administrative Sciences, 83(2): 358-377.