بررسی اثرات رانت منابع طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای اصلی صادرکننده منابع طبیعی: رویکرد رگرسیون چندکی
محورهای موضوعی : اقتصادیقدرت الله امام وردی 1 , اکرم قوامی 2 , علی اکبر خسروی نژاد 3 , نارسیس امین رشتی 4
1 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران مرکز
2 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
3 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.
4 - گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
کلید واژه: رانت منابع طبیعی, رشد اقتصادی, رگرسیون چندکی.,
چکیده مقاله :
بررسی اثرات رانت منابع طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی، یک موضوع چالش برانگیز در ادبیات اقتصاد منابع طبیعی بوده است. رانت منابع طبیعی به طور قابل توجهی بر رشد اقتصادی تأثیر میگذارد و درآمدهایی را برای دولتها فراهم میکند که میتوانند در زیرساخت ها، آموزش و بهداشت سرمایه گذاری کنند و در نتیجه توسعه را تقویت کنند. با این حال، سوء مدیریت این رانتها میتواند منجر به نفرین منابع شود، جایی که اقتصادها بیش از حد به کالاها وابسته میشوند و در نتیجه نوسانات و توسعه نیافتگی ایجاد می¬شود. درک پویایی رانت منابع طبیعی برای سیاست¬گذاران برای بهینه¬سازی منافع و در عین حال کاهش ریسک بسیار مهم است. مطالعاتی از این دست به شناسایی شیوههای پایدار و استراتژیهای مدیریت مؤثر کمک میکند که میتوانند ثروت منابع را به رفاه بلندمدت تبدیل کنند. در نهایت، تجزیه و تحلیل رانت منابع طبیعی برای دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی متعادل و فراگیر حیاتی است. با توجه به این موضوع، هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی اثرات رانت منابع طبیعی در کشورهای اصلی صادرکننده منابع طبیعی (شامل 20 کشور) طی دوره زمانی 2022-2000 با رویکرد رگرسیون چندکی بود. یافته¬های این مطالعه با اثرات ثابت و همچنین رگرسیون چندکی نشان داد که رانت منابع طبیعی، تاثیری مثبت و معنادار بر رشد اقتصادی داشته است. همچنین براساس نتایح روش چندکی، در کوانتایل¬های بالای نرخ رشد اقتصادی، تاثیرات رانت منابع طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی کاهش یافته است. به بیانی دیگر در کشورهای با رشد اقتصادیِ بالاتر، نسبت به کشورهای با رشد اقتصادی پائین¬تر، اثرات رانت منابع طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی کم¬تر است.
The examination of the effects of natural resource rents on economic growth has been a challenging topic in the literature on natural resource economics. Natural resource rents significantly influence economic growth by providing governments with revenues that can be invested in infrastructure, education, and health, thereby promoting development. However, the mismanagement of these rents can lead to the resource curse, where economies become overly dependent on commodities, resulting in volatility and underdevelopment. Understanding the dynamics of natural resource rents is crucial for policymakers to optimize benefits while mitigating risks. Studies in this area help identify sustainable practices and effective management strategies that can transform resource wealth into long-term prosperity. Ultimately, analyzing natural resource rents is vital for achieving balanced and inclusive economic growth. Given this context, the main objective of this study was to examine the effects of natural resource rents in major resource-exporting countries (20 countries) over the period 2000–2022 using a quantile regression approach. The findings from both fixed-effects estimation and quantile regression indicated that natural resource rents have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. Moreover, based on the quantile regression results, the impact of natural resource rents on economic growth decreases at higher quantiles of economic growth. In other words, in countries with higher economic growth, the effect of natural resource rents on growth is weaker compared to countries with lower economic growth.
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