List of Articles oil shocks

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  1 - The effect of oil shocks on the relationship between income - government expenditure in Iran And challenges of management and impulse control
  جابر اکبری Sadegh Bakhtiari Morteza sameti Homayoun Ranjbar
  Abstract Unexpected changes in oil prices on international unstable markets, impact on economic development (Due to budget dependence on oil and the high proportion of government in the economy). Financial management and economic planning in applying a policy, always More

  Abstract Unexpected changes in oil prices on international unstable markets, impact on economic development (Due to budget dependence on oil and the high proportion of government in the economy). Financial management and economic planning in applying a policy, always consider other conditions constant but in action, macro-economic variables such as income and government expenditure are affected by unexpected internal and external shocks and this factor impairs economic development and the effectiveness of the policies intended are disrupted. Therefore, Iran's official policy has always been faced with the challenge of managing the oil income shocks. Considering the importance, in this study, by using models of TVP and TVPFAVAR, using software econometric MATLAB and EViews and using quarterly data over the period 1367 to 1394 has been paid to the effects of the oil shock on the relationship of income - expenditure the Iranian government. Considering that, the exchange rate is a channel for oil income to the economy, the effect of exchange rate shocks is estimated this relationship. Based on the results, oil income shocks increase the relationship of income - government spending. This means that oil shocks increase government expenditure in each period. However, the effects of increasing it during, is decreasing. Also, government spending relative to negative income shocks, was inflexible. Thus, the dependence of the budget oil revenue, through time, has not diminished. As a result, it is proposed that: managers and government policy makers, to improve the relationship between income and expenses, Avoid from policies of discretionary and temporary treatment and take action to prevent and systematic policies. Also, exchange rate shocks have caused the relationship between income and expenditure, reduced. In other words, the increase in the exchange rate through time is not a revenue source for the government to finance its expenditure. Manuscript profile
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  2 - The Effect of Oil Shocks on Political, Financial and Economic Instability in Iran's Economy
  Seyyedeh Zahra  Behrouzi Hadi Keshavarz Parviz  Hajiani
  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the f More

  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the framework of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model in the period of 1379:4-1398. The results of the impulse response functions show that the positive oil price shock has led to an increase in the political risk index in the short term, which was in accordance with theoretical expectations. Also, the positive shock of the total demand has followed the positive reaction of the risk index and has led to the decrease of risk. Sanctions have recorded the greatest effect on political risk. The positive shock of oil supply and total demand has led to a significant reduction in financial risk. The economic risk also shows a significant reaction to the total demand shock and the sanctions shock, as a result of which the risk increases.The results of variance decomposition show that among the three risks (oil price, oil supply, and oil demand), oil shocks have the greatest impact on financial, political, and economic risks, respectively. Financial and economic risk had the greatest effect from the total demand shock and political risk from the oil price shock. Manuscript profile
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  3 - The Effect of Oil Shocks on Political, Financial and Economic Instability in Iran's Economy
  Seyyedeh Zahra  Behrouzi دکتر هادی  کشاورز Parviz  Hajiani
  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the f More

  One of the most important goals of any government and country is to achieve stability in various economic, social, financial and political fields. The present study examines the effect of oil shocks on political, financial and economic risk in Iran's economy using the framework of structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model in the period of 1379:4-1398. The results of the impulse response functions show that the positive oil price shock has led to an increase in the political risk index in the short term, which was in accordance with theoretical expectations. Also, the positive shock of the total demand has followed the positive reaction of the risk index and has led to the decrease of risk. Sanctions have recorded the greatest effect on political risk. The positive shock of oil supply and total demand has led to a significant reduction in financial risk. The economic risk also shows a significant reaction to the total demand shock and the sanctions shock, as a result of which the risk increases.The results of variance decomposition show that among the three risks (oil price, oil supply, and oil demand), oil shocks have the greatest impact on financial, political, and economic risks, respectively. Financial and economic risk had the greatest effect from the total demand shock and political risk from the oil price shock. Manuscript profile