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      • Open Access Article

        1 - Modeling, Assessment and Improvement of Demand and Supply Side Uncertainties in Long-term Dynamics of Power Markets
        E. Khorram H. Seifi Mohammad Kazem Sheikh El Eslami
        In this paper, the long-term dynamics of an electricity market is modeled, considering the load uncertainty. Moreover, the generation side uncertainties, including the uncertainties of the generators availabilities, the hydro generations and the wind generations are obs More
        In this paper, the long-term dynamics of an electricity market is modeled, considering the load uncertainty. Moreover, the generation side uncertainties, including the uncertainties of the generators availabilities, the hydro generations and the wind generations are observed. The problem is analyzed by the System Dynamics (SD) method. Also, the effects of capacity payment on power market dynamics, with and without uncertainties, are modeled and analyzed. The simulation results show how the uncertainties may affect the long-term behavior of a power market. Moreover, it is shown how the effect of uncertainties on market dynamics, may be improved through capacity payment. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        2 - A Hybrid Long-Term Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting Approach Considering Renewable Energies Power in Smart Grids
        Mohsen  Jahantigh majid moazzami
        With the growth and integration of distributed generation resources in smart grids, net load forecasting is of significant importance. A hybrid optimization method is proposed in this paper for probabilistic net load forecasting using neighborhood component analysis and More
        With the growth and integration of distributed generation resources in smart grids, net load forecasting is of significant importance. A hybrid optimization method is proposed in this paper for probabilistic net load forecasting using neighborhood component analysis and solving regression problem with the aid of mini-batch LBFGS method. Net load forecasting is suggested in this paper trough forecast combination via adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system. The structure includes a combination of several long-term forecasts, including forecasts of load, the generation of a solar station, and the generation of a wind farm with wind turbines equipped with doubly-fed induction generator. Also, the net load forecasting and the relationship between errors of load, wind and solar predictions are studied in this paper. The simulation results of the proposed method and its comparison with Tao and quantile regression models show that mean absolute percentage error of load forecasting, and the forecasts of solar and wind generations improved by 0.947%, 0.3079% and 0042%, respectively which result to a decrease in net load forecasting error. Manuscript profile