A Novel Multi-Step Ahead Demand Forecasting Model Based on Deep Learning Techniques and Time Series Augmentation
Subject Areas : ICT
Hossein Abbasimehr
1
,
Reza Paki
2
1 - Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University
2 - Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University
Keywords: Time Series, Deep Learning, Long short-term memory, Convolutional network, Multihead self-attention mechanism,
Abstract :
In a business environment where there is fierce competition between companies, accurate demand forecasting is vital. If we collect customer demand data at discrete points in time, we obtain a demand time series. As a result, the demand forecasting problem can be formulated as a time series forecasting task. In the context of time series forecasting, deep learning methods have demonstrated good accuracy in predicting complex time series. However, the excellent performance of these methods is dependent on the amount of data available. For this purpose, in this study, we propose to use time series augmentation techniques to improve the performance of deep learning methods. In this study, three new methods have been used to test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which are: 1) Long short-term memory, 2) Convolutional network 3) Multihead self-attention mechanism. This study also uses a multi-step forecasting approach that makes it possible to predict several future points in a forecasting operation. The proposed method is applied to the actual demand data of a furniture company. The experimental results show that the proposed approach improves the forecasting accuracy of the methods used in most different prediction scenarios
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