تحلیل عدم قطعیت پارامترها براي شبیه سازي جریان رودخانه با کاربرد روشGLUE
الموضوعات :
مریم شفیعی
1
(دانشگاه تهران)
Javad Bazrafshan
2
(دانشگاه تهران)
پرویز ایران نژاد
3
(دانشگاه تهران)
الکلمات المفتاحية: تحلیل عدم¬, قطعیت روش GLUE مدل جفت¬, شده جریان رودخانه حوضه کرخه,
ملخص المقالة :
در سال های اخیر تعیین عدم قطعیت مدل های هیدرولوژیکی در تحقیقات هیدرولوژی بسیار موردتوجه قرار گرفته است. هرچند پارامترهای مدل هیدرولوژیکی معمولا به وسیله واسنجی تعیین می شوند ولی عدم قطعیت قابل توجه در پارامترهای مدل وجود دارد. در این مطالعه با هدف واسنجی و تحلیل عدم قطعیت مدل جفت شده ALSIS-HBV در حوضه کرخه از روش GLUE استفاده شده است. تعیین منابع اصلی عدم قطعیت و شناسایی پارامترها، همچنین برآورد میزان عدم قطعیت در نتایج شبیه سازی جریان رودخانه از اهداف دیگر این پژوهش است. یافته ها نشان می دهد پارامترهای K2، Fcap، MaxBas، lp، B، degw و ttlim منابع اصلی عدم قطعیت جریان رودخانه و پارامترهای K2، Fcap،B ، lp و perc قابل شناسایی ترین پارامترها هستند. به طور کلی ارزیابی عملکرد مدل برای شبیه سازی جریان رودخانه در حوضه کرخه به ویژه در دوره واسنجی خوب و قابل قبول است و بیشتر داده های مشاهداتی جریان رودخانه در محدوده 95 درصدی فاصله اطمینان قرار دارند، بنابراین توزیع احتمال محاسبه شده از جریان رودخانه می تواند برای پیش بینی جریان رودخانه به کار رود.
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