مدل‌سازي و ارزيابي قابليت اطمينان سيستم قدرت ترکيبي و تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور به کمک شبکه‌هاي بيزي
الموضوعات :
مجتبي الياسي
1
(دانشگاه تربيت مدرس)
حسین سیفی
2
(دانشگاه تربیت مدرس)
محمودرضا حقی‌فام
3
(دانشگاه تربیت مدرس)
الکلمات المفتاحية: تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور سيستم قدرت ترکيبي شبکه‌هاي بيزي مجموعه‌هاي انقطاع حداقل مدل‌سازي قابليت اطمينان,
ملخص المقالة :
شبکه‌هاي بيزي به عنوان چارچوبي قدرتمند براي بررسي پديده‌هاي احتمالاتي در بسياري از مسایل دنياي واقعي کاربرد موفقيت‌آميزي داشته اما در حوزه قابليت اطمينان سيستم‌هاي قدرت ترکيبي به ندرت مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در مقايسه با روش‌هاي رايج، ارزيابي قابليت اطمينان با شبکه‌هاي بيزي هم در مدل‌سازي و هم در تحليل، قابليت‌هاي افزوده‌اي فراهم مي‌کند. از ديدگاه مدل‌سازي، بسياري از فرضيات محدودکننده روش‌هاي رايج حذف مي‌شود و از ديدگاه تحليل، امکان انجام بسياري از تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور فراهم مي‌شود که در روش‌هاي رايج به ندرت در دسترس و به سختي قابل انجام است. در اين مقاله، روشي جديد مبتني بر مجموعه‌هاي انقطاع حداقل براي مدل‌سازي قابليت اطمينان، ارزيابي قابليت اطمينان و تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور در سيستم‌هاي قدرت ترکيبي با شبکه‌هاي بيزي پيشنهاد شده است. ابتدا روشي جديد براي تعيين مجموعه‌هاي انقطاع حداقل در سيستم قدرت ترکيبي ارائه شده است. بر مبناي مجموعه‌هاي انقطاع حداقل، داده‌هاي قابليت اطمينان تجهيزات و ارتباط منطقي بين گره‌ها، ساختار و پارامترهاي مدل بيزي براي قابليت اطمينان سيستم قدرت ترکيبي تعيين شده است. براي کاهش بار محاسباتي و کاربردپذيري روش براي سيستم‌هاي بزرگ، گره‌هاي واسط پيشنهاد و با مدل بيزي ترکيب شده است. با استفاده از مدل بيزي، تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور متعددي بر روي سيستم قدرت ترکيبي ارائه شده که براي مطالعات مختلف سيستم قدرت مفيد بوده و در روش‌هاي رايج به سختي قابل انجام است. براي نمايش چگونگي استخراج مدل بيزي قابليت اطمينان، روش پيشنهادي در شبکه RBTS به اجرا درآمده و براي اعتبارسنجي، نتايج آن با روش‌هاي ديگر مقايسه شده است. نتايج اجراي تحليل‌هاي مختلف قابليت اطمينان- محور در اين شبکه بررسي شده و همچنين براي نمايش امکان‌پذيري در شبکه‌هاي بزرگ، روش پيشنهادي بر روي RTS اجرا شده است.
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