مدل‌سازي، ارزيابي و کاهش اثر عدم قطعيت‌هاي سمت عرضه و تقاضا در ديناميك بلندمدت بازار برق
الموضوعات :ابراهیم خرم 1 , حسین سیفی 2 , محمدکاظم شیخ‌الاسلامی 3
1 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
الکلمات المفتاحية: ديناميك بازار برق عدم قطعيت دسترس‌پذيري توليد عدم قطعيت توليد آبي و بادي عدم قطعيت بار,
ملخص المقالة :
در اين مقاله ديناميك بلندمدت بازار برق با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعيت تقاضاي بار و عدم قطعيت‌هاي سمت عرضه شامل عدم قطعيت دسترس‌پذيري نيروگاه‌ها، عدم قطعيت توليد نيروگاه‌هاي آبي و عدم قطعيت توليد نيروگاه‌هاي بادي به كمك روش ديناميك سيستم (SD) مدل‌سازي شده است. همچنين نقش پرداخت ظرفيت بر ديناميك بازار برق و بر اثرات عدم قطعيت‌ها بر ديناميك بازار مدل‌سازي و تحليل شده است. نتايج شبيه‌سازي، ميزان و نحوه تأثير هر يك از عدم قطعيت‌ها بر ديناميك بازار و اهميت آنها در مدل‌سازي ديناميك بازار برق و نيز تأثير مكانيزم پرداخت ظرفيت بر ميزان اثرگذاري عدم قطعيت‌ها بر ديناميك بازار برق را نشان مي‌دهد.
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