تحليل ديناميك بلندمدت بازار برق ناشي از منطقيت محدود تصميمات سرمايهگذاران تحت طراحي‌هاي مختلف بازار
الموضوعات :
ابراهیم خرم
1
(دانشگاه تربیت مدرس)
حسین سیفی
2
(دانشگاه تربیت مدرس)
محمدکاظم شیخ‌الاسلامی
3
(دانشگاه تربیت مدرس)
الکلمات المفتاحية: بازار برق توسعه توليد ديناميك بازار ديناميك سيستم سرمايه‌گذاري توليد طراحي بازار,
ملخص المقالة :
در اين مقاله ديناميك بلندمدت بازار برق، ناشي از منطقيت محدود تصميمات سرمايهگذاران به كمك روش ديناميك سيستم (SD) و تحت طراحي‌هاي مختلف بازار شامل بازار انرژي تنها(EO) ، بازار با ذخيره بهره‌برداري (OR)، بازار با پرداخت ظرفيت ثابت (FCP) و بازار مبتني بر منحني تقاضاي ظرفيت (DC) تحليل شده است. همچنين مسير مبتني بر تعادل بلندمدت، جهت مقايسه تعيين شده است. نتايج شبيه‌سازي نشان مي‌دهد كه طراحي‌هاي مختلف بازار ديناميك‌هاي بسيار متفاوتي دارند و مي‌توان با انتخاب طراحي مناسب تا حد زيادي ديناميك بازار را كنترل كرد.
[1] E. Crousillat, Incorporating Risk and Uncertainty in Power System Planning, Washington, D. C.: World Bank, 1989.
[2] G. Gigerenzer and R. Selten, Bounded Rationality: the Adaptive Toolbox, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2002.
[3] F. Olsina, Long Term Dynamics of Liberalized Electricity Markets, Ph. D. Dissertation, Dept. Postgraduate Stud., San Juan Nat. Univ., Sun Juan, Argentina, 2005.
[4] F. Olsina, F. Garces, and H. J. Haubrich, "Modeling long - term dynamics of electricity markets," Energy Policy, vol. 34, no. 12, pp. 1411-1433, Aug. 2006.
[5] J. W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications, 1961.
[6] D. W. Bunn and E. R. Larsen, "Sensitivity of reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of England and Wales," Energy Policy, vol. 20, no. 5, pp. 420-429, May 1992.
[7] D. W. Bunn and E. R. Larsen, "Assessment of the uncertainty in future UK electricity investment using an industry simulation model," Utilities Policy, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 229-236, Jul. 1994.
[8] D. W. Bunn, I. Dyner, and E. R. Larsen, "Modelling latent market power across gas and electricity markets," Syst. Dynamics Review., vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 271-288, Win. 1997.
[9] D. W. Bunn, E. R. Larsen, and K. Vlahos, "Complementary modelling approaches for analysing several effects of privatization on electricity investment," Operational Research Soc., vol. 44, no. 10, pp. 957-971, Oct. 1993.
[10] E. R. Larsen and D. W. Bunn, "Deregulation in electricity: understanding strategic and regulatory risk," Operational Research Soc., vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 337-344, Apr. 1999.
[11] S. Gary and E. R. Larsen, "Improving firm performance in out - of - equilibrium, deregulated markets using feedback simulation models," Energy Policy, vol. 28, no. 12, pp. 845-855, Oct. 2000.
[12] A. Ford, "System dynamics and the electric power industry," Syst. Dynamics Review, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 57-85, Spr. 1997.
[13] A. Ford, "Cycles in competitive electricity markets: a simulation study of the western United States," Energy Policy, vol. 27, no. 11, pp. 637-658, Oct. 1999.
[14] A. Ford, "Waiting for the boom: a simulation study of power plant construction in California," Energy Policy, vol. 29, no. 11, pp. 847-869, Sep. 2001.
[15] A. Dimitrovski, A. Ford, and K. Tomsovic, "An interdisciplinary approach to long-term modelling for power system expansion," Int. J. Critical Infrastructures, vol. 3, no. 1-2, pp. 235-264, 2007.
[16] K. Vogstad, A System Dynamics Analysis of the Nordic Electricity Market: the Transition from Fossil Fuelled toward a Renewable Supply within a Liberalized Electricity Market, Ph. D. Dissertation, Dept. Elect. Power Eng., Sci. and Tech. Univ., Trondheim, Norwegian, 2005.
[17] A. Ford and K. Vogstad, "Comprehensive long term modeling of the dynamics of investment and growth in electric power systems," Presented at the EPNES Workshop, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, 2004.
[18] K. Vogstad, A. Botterud, K. Maribu, and S. Grenaa, "The transition from a fossil fuelled towards a renewable power supply in a deregulated electricity market," Presented at the 20th Int. Conf. System Dynamics Society, Palermo, Italy, 2002.
[19] K. Vogstad, "Combining system dynamics and experimental economics to analyse the design of tradable green certificates," in Proc. 38th Annu. Hawaii. Int. Conf. System Sciences, 9 pp. Hawaii, US, 03-06 Jan. 2005.
[20] K. Vogstad, "Counterproductive environmental policies: long term versus short term substitution effects of natural gas in a liberalised electricity market," Presented at the 22th Int. Conf. System Dynamics Society, Oxford, 26-30 Aug. 2004.
[21] T. Kadoya et al., "Utilizing system dynamics modeling to examine impact of deregulation on generation capacity," in Proc. IEEE, vol. 93, no. 11, pp. 2060-2069, Nov. 2005.
[22] L. J. De Vries, Securing the Public Interest in Electricity Generation Markets, the Myths of the Invisible Hand and the Copper Plate, Ph. D. Dissertation, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Manage., Univ. Technology, Delft, 2004.
[23] J. Y. Park, N. S. Ahn, Y. B. Yoon, K. H. Koh, and D. W. Bunn, "Investment incentives in the Korean electricity market," Energy Policy, vol. 35, no. 11, pp. 5819-5828, Nov. 2007.
[24] S. Arango, "Simulation of alternative regulations in the Colombian electricity market," Socio-Econ. Planning Sci., vol. 41, no. 4, pp. 305-319, Dec. 2007.
[25] M. Assili, M. H. Javidi D. B., and R. Ghazi, "An improved mechanism for capacity payment based on system dynamics modeling for investment planning in competitive electricity environment," Energy Policy, vol. 36, no. 10, pp. 3703-3713, Oct. 2008.
[26] P. Ochoa and A. Van Ackere, "Policy changes and the dynamics of capacity expansion in the Swiss electricity market," Energy Policy, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 1983-1998, May 2009.
[27] O. A. Ojeda, F. Olsina, and F. Garces, "Simulation of the long - term dynamic of a market - based transmission interconnection," Energy Policy, vol. 37, no. 8, pp. 2889-2899, Aug. 2009.
[28] F. Olsina and F. F. Garces, "Stochastic modeling of the long-term dynamics of liberalized electricity markets," IEEE Power and Energy Soc. General Meeting-Conv. and Delivery of Elect. Energy in the 21st Century, 6 pp., Jul. 2008.
[29] L. De Vries and P. Heijnen, "The impact of electricity market design upon investment under uncertainty: the effectiveness of capacity mechanisms," Utilities Policy, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 215-227, Sep. 2008.
[30] G. L. Doorman and A. Botterud, "Analysis of generation investment under different market designs," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 859-867, Aug. 2008.
[31] J. Sterman, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, McGraw - Hill, 2000.
[32] B. F. Hobbs, M. C. Hu, J. G. Inon, S. E. Stoft, and M. P. Bhavaraju, "A dynamic analysis of a demand curve - based capacity market proposal: the PJM reliability pricing model," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 3-14, Feb. 2007.
[33] H. Seifi and M. S. Sepasian, Electric Power System Planning: Issues, Algorithms, and Solutions, Verlag Berlin Heidelberg: Springer, 2011.
[34] S. Stoft, Power System Economics: Designing Markets for Electricity, Piscataway, N. J: IEEE Press, 2000.
[35] P. Joskow and J. Tirole, "Reliability and competitive electricity markets," RAND J. of Econ., vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 60-84, Spr. 2007.
[36] P. L. Joskow, "Capacity payments in imperfect electricity markets: need and design," Utilities Policy, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 159-170, Sep. 2008.
[37] D. Kirschen and G. Strabac, Fundamentals of Power System Economics, England: John Wiley & Sons, 2004.
