بررسی تاثیر پیچیدگی و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن (مطالعه موردی: کشور ایران)
محورهای موضوعی :
سیدکمال صادقی
1
,
محمد اره کش سلماسی
2
1 - دانشگاه تبریز
2 - دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه تبریز
کلید واژه: کلمات کلیدی: پیچیدگی اقتصادی, رشد اقتصادی, انتشارگاز دی اکسیدکربن, کشورایران,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف از این مقاله بررسی رابطه منحنی کوزنتس محیطی (EKC)و شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی (ECI) به عنوان عنصر متمایز کننده حجم تولید برای کشور ایران است.برای بررسی رابطه بین متغیرها از مدل اصلاح خطای بردار(VECM) برای دوره زمانی 1389-1399 با تکنیکهای حداقل مربعات پویا،حداقل مربعات اصلاح شده،آزمون همجمعی و آزمون جوهانسون استفاده شد. برای بررسی عوامل موثر بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن،از متغیرهای سنتی که داده های منحنی کوزنتس محیطی رابین سالهای 1389-1399 نشان می دهد استفاده شده است.این متغیرها عبارتند از تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه،جمعیت شهری،مصرف برق(کیلووات ساعت سرانه)،سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی،واردات و صادرات کالا و خدمات(درصد تولید ناخالص داخلی) که از مرکز آمار ایران ،سازمان محیط زیست و بانک مرکزی تهیه شده است..برای بدست آوردن پیچیدگی اقتصادی(ECI) از مدل پیشنهادی هیدالگو و هاوس مان (2009) استفاده شد.نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن تاثیری ندارد اما افزایش تولید و مصرف انرژی و افزایش صادرات و کاهش واردات بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن موثر است.همچنین بین افزایش درآمد سرانه،سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن رابطه معنی داری یافت نشد.طبق نتایج تحقیق پیشنهاد می شود از انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر در تولید استفاده شود و قوانین صادراتی و وارداتی برمبنای کاهش مخاطرات زیست محیطی باشد.
Sadeghi SeyyedKamal Arrekesh Salmasi Mohammad Abstract The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between the Environmental Couzens Curve (EKC) and the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) as a differentiating element of the production volume for Iran. To investigate the relationship between the variables of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for the period of 2019-2020 Dynamic least squares, modified least squares, collinearity test and Johanson test were used. In order to investigate the factors affecting the emission of carbon dioxide gas, the traditional variables shown by the environmental Kuznets curve data of 1389-1399 have been used. These variables include GDP per capita, urban population, electricity consumption (kilowatt hours per capita), foreign direct investment, import and export of goods and services (percentage of gross domestic product) which was prepared from Iran Statistics Center, Environmental Organization and Central Bank... to obtain economic complexity (ECI) from the model proposed by Hidalgo and House Mann (2009) was used. The research results show that economic complexity has no effect on carbon dioxide emissions, but increasing production and energy consumption and increasing exports and decreasing imports are effective on carbon dioxide emissions. Also, between increasing per capita income, capital No significant relationship was found between foreign direct investment and carbon dioxide emissions. According to the research results, it is suggested to use renewable energy in production and export and import laws should be based on reducing environmental risks.
- Acharyya, J.,( 2009). FDI, growth and the environment: evidence from India on CO2 emission during the last two decades. J. Econ. Dev. 34 (1), 43.
- Al-Mulali, U. Tang , C.F. Ozturk, I.(2015). Estimating the environment Kuznets curve hypothesis: evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean countries. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev.No 50, PP:918–924.
- Albulescu, C.T. Tiwari, A.K. Yoon, S.-M. Kang, S.H.( 2019). Fdi, income, and environmental pollution in Latin America: replication and extension using panel quantiles regression analysis. Energy Econ. P:504.
- Apergis, N. Can, M. Gozgor, G., Lau, C.K.M.(2018). . Effects of export concentration on CO2 emissions in developed countries: an empirical analysis. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 25 (14), PP:106–116.
- Apergis, N., Ozturk, I., (2015). Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Asian countries. Ecol. Indic.No 52,PP: 16–22.
- Apergis, N., Payne, J.E., 2010. The emissions, energy consumption, and growth nexus: evidence from the commonwealth of independent states. Energy Policy 38 (1), 650–655.
- Baek, J., 2015. Environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: the case of Arctic countries. Energy Econ. 50, 13–17.
- Bakhsh, K., Rose, S., Ali, M.F., Ahmad, N., Shahbaz, M., 2017. Economic growth, CO2 emissions, renewable waste and FDI relation in Pakistan: new evidences from 3SLS. J. Environ. Manag. No196, PP:627–632.
- Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Shahbaz, M., Roubaud, D., Farhani, S.(2018). How economic growth, renewable electricity and natural resources contribute to CO2 emissions? Energy Policy,No113,PP:356-367.
- Barra, C., Zotti, R. 2018. Investigating the non-linearity between national income and environmental pollution: international evidence of Kuznets curve. Environ. Econ. Policy Stud. 20 (1), 179–210.
- Da Silva Batista, A.A., de Francisco, A.C., 2018. Organizational sustainability practices: a study of the firms listed by the corporate sustainability index. Sustainability 10 (1),226.
- Batjes, N.H., 2014. Total carbon and nitrogen in the soils of the world. Eur. J. Soil Sci. 65 (1), 10–21.
- Bekun, F.V., Alola, A.A., Sarkodie, S.A., 2019. Toward a sustainable environment: nexus between CO2 emissions, resource rent, renewable and nonrenewable energy in 16-EU countries. Sci. Total Environ. 657, 1023–1029.
- Blanco, L., Gonzalez, F., Ruiz, I., 2013. The impact of fdi on CO2 emissions in Latin America. Oxf. Develop. Stud. 41 (1), 104–121.
- Brambilla, I., Porto, G.G., 2016. High-income ex destinations, quality and wages. J. Int. Econ. 98, 21–35.
- Calderón, S., Alvarez, A.C., Loboguerrero, A.M., Arango, S., Calvin, K., Kober, T., Daenzer, K., Fisher-Vanden, K., 2016. Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets. Energy Econ. 56, 575–586.
- Can, M., Dogan, B., Saboori, B., 2020. Does trade matter for environmental degradation in developing countries? New evidence in the context of export product diversification. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int., 1–9.
- Can, M., Gozgor, G., 2017. The impact of economic complexity on carbon emissions: evidence from France. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 24 (19), 364–370.
- Cansino, J.M., Román-Collado, R., Molina, J.C., 2019. Quality of institutions, technological progress, and pollution havens in Latin America. An analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Sustainability 11 (13), 3708.
- Chen, J., Wang, P., Cui, L., Huang, S., Song, M., 2018. Decomposition and decoupling analysis of CO2 emissions in OECD. Appl. Energy 231, 937–950.
- Dogan˘ , B., Saboori, B., Can, M., 2019. Does economic complexity matter for environmental degradation? An empirical analysis for different stages of development. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 26 (31), 31900–31912.
- Dogan, E., Seker, F., 2016. Determinants of CO2 emissions in the European Union: the role of renewable and non-renewable energy. Renew. Energy 94, 429–439.
- Dong, K., Hochman, G., Zhang, Y., Sun, R., Li, H., Liao, H., 2018. CO2 emissions, economic and population growth, and renewable energy: empirical evidence across regions.
- Energy Econ. 75, 180–192.
- Dong, K., Sun, R., Hochman, G., 2017. Do natural gas and renewable energy consumption lead to less CO2 emission? Empirical evidence from a panel of brics countries. Energy 141, 1466–1478.
- Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W., 1987. Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, PP:251–276.
- Gill, A.R., Viswanathan, K.K., Hassan, S., 2018. A test of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon emission and potential of renewable energy to reduce green house gases in Malaysia. Environ. Dev. Sustain. No20 ,Vol3,PP: 103–114.
- -Gokmenoglu, K.K., Taspinar, N., 2018. Testing the agriculture-induced EKC hypothesis: the case of Pakistan. Environ. Sci. Pollut. 25 (23), PP:829–22841.
- Gómez, M., Rodríguez, J.C., 2016. Analysis of causality between economic growth and carbon emissions: the case of Mexico 1971-2011. In: World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology. Int. J. Environ., Chem., Ecol., Geol. Geophys. Eng. 10 (12), PP:74–79.
- Gozgor, G., 2017. Does trade matter for carbon emissions in oecd countries? Evidence from a new trade openness measure. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 24 (36),PP:813-821
- Hanif, I., Gago-de Santos, P., 2017. The importance of population control and macroeconomic stability to reducing environmental degradation: an empirical test of the environmental Kuznets curve for developing countries. Environ. Dev. 23, 1–9.
- Hanif, I., Raza, S.M.F., Gago-de Santos, P., Abbas, Q., 2019. Fossil fuels, foreign direct investment, and economic growth have triggered CO2 emissions in emerging Asian economies: some empirical evidence. Energy 171, 493–501.
- Hidalgo, C.A., Hausmann, R., 2009. The building blocks of economic complexity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106 (26), 10570–10575.
- Hu, G., Can, M., Paramati, S.R., Dogan˘ , B., Fang, J., 2020. The effect of import product diversification on carbon emissions: new evidence for sustainable economic policies. Econ. Anal. Policy 65, 198–210.
- Huisingh, D., Zhang, Z., Moore, J.C., Qiao, Q., Li, Q., 2015. Recent advances in carbon emissions reduction: policies, technologies, monitoring, assessment and modeling. J. Clean. Prod. 103, 1–12.
- Is¸ık, C., Ongan, S., Özdemir, D., 2019. Testing the ekc hypothesis for ten us states: an application of heterogeneous panel estimation method. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 26 (11), PP:846–853.
- Iwata, H., Okada, K., Samreth, S., 2010. Empirical study on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in France: the role of nuclear energy. Energy Policy 38 (8), 4057–4063.
- Jalil, A., Mahmud, S.F., 2009. Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: a cointegration analysis for China. Energy Policy 37 (12), 5167–5172.
- Jardón, A., Kuik, O., Tol, R.S., 2017. Economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions: an analysis of Latin America and the Caribbean. Atmósfera 30 (2), PP:87–100.
- Jaunky, V.C., 2011. The CO2 emissions-income nexus: evidence from rich countries. Energy Policy 39 (3), 1228–1240.
- Jebli, M.B., Youssef, S.B., Ozturk, I., 2016. Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: the role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and trade in oecd countries. Ecol. Indic. 60, 824–831.
- Johansen, S., 1995. Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford University Press on Demand.
- Johansen, S., Juselius, K., 1990. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration—with applications to the demand for money. Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 52 (2), 169–210.
- Lau, L.-S., Choong, C.-K., Eng, Y.-K., 2014. Investigation of the environmental Kuznets curve for carbon emissions in Malaysia: do foreign direct investment and trade matter? Energy Policy 68, 490–497.
- Laverde-Rojas, H., Correa, J.C., 2019. Can scientific productivity impact the economic complexity of countries? Scientometrics 120 (1), 267–282.
- Lieb, C.M., 2003. The environmental Kuznets curve: a survey of the empirical evidence and of possible causes. Technical report, Discussion paper series.
- Liu, Y., Gao, C., Lu, Y., 2017. The impact of urbanization on ghg emissions in China: the role of population density. J. Clean. Prod. 157, 299–309.
- Luo, G., Weng, J.-H., Zhang, Q., Hao, Y., 2017. A reexamination of the existence of environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: evidence from G20 countries. Nat. Hazards 85 (2), PP:23–42.
- Lütkepohl, H., 2005. New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer Science & Business Media.
- Laverde-Rojas, Henry. Guevara-Fletcher,Diego.A. Camacho-Murillo,Andres.(2021).Economic growth,economic complexity and carbon dioxide emissions:The Case of Colombia,Journal of Heliyon,No7,PP:1-14.
- Mahmood, H., Maalel, N., Zarrad, O., 2019. Trade openness and CO2 emissions: evidence from Tunisia. Sustainability 11 (12), 3295.
- Mania, E., 2020. Export diversification and 𝐶𝑂2 emissions: an augmented environmental Kuznets curve. J. Int. Dev. 32 (2), 168–185.
- Neagu, O., Teodoru, M.C., 2019. The relationship between economic complexity, energy consumption structure and greenhouse gas emission: heterogeneous panel evidence from the eu countries. Sustainability 11 (2), P:497.
- Nordhaus, W., 2019. Climate change: the ultimate challenge for economics. Am. Econ. Rev. 109 (6), 1991–2014.
- Oberschelp, C., Pfister, S., Raptis, C., Hellweg, S., 2019. Global emission hotspots of coal power generation. Nat. Sustain. 2 (2), 113–121.
- Ocampo, J.A., Rada, C., Taylor, L., 2009. Growth and Policy in Developing Countries: A Structuralist Approach. Columbia University Press.
- Ohlan, R., 2015. The impact of population density, energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness on CO2 emissions in India. Nat. Hazards 79 (2), 1409–1428.
- Özokcu, S., Özdemir, Ö., 2017. Economic growth, energy, and environmental Kuznets curve. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 72, 639–647.
- Pablo-Romero, M. del P., De Jesús, J., 2016. Economic growth and energy consumption: the energy-environmental Kuznets curve for Latin America and the Caribbean. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 60, 1343–1350.
- Paramati, S.R., Sinha, A., Dogan, E., 2017. The significance of renewable energy use for economic output and environmental protection: evidence from the next 11 developing economies. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 24 (15), PP:546–560.
- Perkins, R., Neumayer, E., 2008. Fostering environment efficiency through transnational linkages? Trajectories of CO2 and SO2, 1980–2000. Environ. Plan. A 40 (12), PP:970-989
- Piaggio, M., Padilla, E., Román, C., 2017. The long-term relationship between CO2 emissions and economic activity in a small open economy: Uruguay 1882–2010. Energy Econ. No65, PP:271–282.
- Raza, A., Razzaq, A., Mehmood, S.S., Zou, X., Zhang, X., Lv, Y., Xu, J., 2019. Impact of climate change on crops adaptation and strategies to tackle its outcome: a review. Plants 8 (2), 34.
- Ritchie, H., Roser, M., 2017. Co2 and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Our World in Data.Journal of Energy,No60,P:12.
- Robalino-López, A., Mena-Nieto, A., García-Ramos, J.E., 2014. System dynamics modeling for renewable energy and CO2 emissions: a case study of Ecuador. Energy Sustain. Dev. 20,PP: 11–20.
- Robalino-López, A., Mena-Nieto, Á., García-Ramos, J.-E., Golpe, A.A., 2015. Studying the relationship between economic growth, CO2 emissions, and the environmental Kuznets curve in Venezuela (1980–2025). Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. No41,PP: 602–614.
- Rodríguez-Olalla, A., Avilés-Palacios, C., 2017. Integrating sustainability in organisations: an activity-based sustainability model. Sustainability 9 (6), 1072.
- Saboori, B., Sulaiman, J., Mohd, S., 2012. Economic growth and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: a cointegration analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve. Energy Policy 51, 184–191.
- Sanchez, L.F., Stern, D.I., 2016. Drivers of industrial and non-industrial greenhouse gas emissions. Ecol. Econ. 124, 17–24.
- Santra, S., 2017. The effect of technological innovation on production-based energy and CO2 emission productivity: evidence from brics countries. Afr. J. Sci. Technol. Innov. Dev. 9 (5), 503–512.
- Sapkota, P., Bastola, U., 2017. Foreign direct investment, income, and environmental pollution in developing countries: panel data analysis of Latin America. Energy Econ. 64,
- 206–212.
- Satterthwaite, D., 2009. The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change. Environ. Urban. 21 (2), 545–567.
- Shahbaz, M., Gozgor, G., Hammoudeh, S., 2019. Human capital and export diversification as new determinants of energy demand in the United States. Energy Econ. 78, pp335-349.
- Shahbaz, M., Nasreen, S., Ahmed, K., Hammoudeh, S., 2017. Trade openness–carbon emissions nexus: the importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels. Energy Econ. 61, 221–232.
- Shahbaz, M., Solarin, S.A., Sbia, R., Bibi, S., 2015. Does energy intensity contribute to CO2 emissions? A trivariate analysis in selected African countries. Ecol. Indic. 50, PP:215–224.
- Shuai, C., Chen, X., Shen, L., Jiao, L., Wu, Y., Tan, Y., 2017. The turning points of carbon Kuznets curve: evidences from panel and time-series data of 164 countries. J. Clean. Prod. No162, PP:31–47.
- Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 1993. A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica, 783–820.
- Storlazzi, C.D., Gingerich, S.B., van Dongeren, A., Cheriton, O.M. Swarzenski, P.W., Quataert, E., Voss, C.I., Field, D.W., Annamalai, H., Piniak, G.A., et al., 2018. Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding. Sci. Adv. 4 (4), eaap9741.
- Sumabat, A.K., Lopez, N.S., Yu, K.D., Hao, H., Li, R., Geng, Y., Chiu, A.S., 2016. Decomposition analysis of Philippine CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and electricity generation. Appl. Energy 164, 795–804.
- Van Tran, N., 2020. The environmental effects of trade openness in developing countries: conflict or cooperation? Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int. 27 (16), 19783–19797.
- Wu, Y., Chau, K., Lu, W., Shen, L., Shuai, C., Chen, J., 2018. Decoupling relationship between economic output and carbon emission in the Chinese construction industry. Environ. Impact. Asses. Rev. 71, 60–69.
- Xu, T., 2018. Investigating environmental Kuznets curve in China–aggregation bias and policy implications. Energy Policy 114, 315–322.
- Yilanci, V., Pata, U.K., 2020. Investigating the ekc hypothesis for China: the role of economic complexity on ecological footprint. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Int., 1–12.
- Zambrano-Monserrate, M.A., Alvarado-Sánchez, M., González-Sánchez, M., Rivas-Ávila, K., Beltrán-Mora, M., 2018a. Is Panama on a sustainable development path? Rev. Econ. Inst. 20 (38), 285–302.
- Zambrano-Monserrate, M.A., Silva-Zambrano, C.A., Davalos-Penafiel, J.L., ZambranoMonserrate, A. Ruano, M.A., 2018b. Testing environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Peru: the role of renewable electricity, petroleum and dry natural gas. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 82, 4170–4178.
- Zambrano-Monserrate, M.A., Valverde-Bajaña, I., Aguilar-Bohórquez, J., MendozaJimenez, M.J., 2016. Relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation: is there evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve for Brazil? Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy 6 (2), 208–216.
- Zilio, M., Caraballo, M., 2014. El final de la curva de Kuznets de carbono? un análisis semiparamétrico para la América Latina y el Caribe. El trimestre económico 81 (321),PP:241-270
- Zilio, M., Recalde, M., 2011. Gdp and environment pressure: the role of energy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Energy Policy 39 (12), 7941–7949.
- Zoundi, Z., 2017. CO2 emissions, renewable energy and the environmental Kuznets curve, a panel cointegration approach. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 72, pp:1067–1075.
