بررسی تاثیر پیچیدگی و رشد اقتصادی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن (مطالعه موردی: کشور ایران)
الموضوعات :
سیدکمال صادقی
1
,
محمد اره کش سلماسی
2
1 - دانشگاه تبریز
2 - دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه تبریز
الکلمات المفتاحية: کلمات کلیدی: پیچیدگی اقتصادی, رشد اقتصادی, انتشارگاز دی اکسیدکربن, کشورایران,
ملخص المقالة :
هدف از این مقاله بررسی رابطه منحنی کوزنتس محیطی (EKC)و شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی (ECI) به عنوان عنصر متمایز کننده حجم تولید برای کشور ایران است.برای بررسی رابطه بین متغیرها از مدل اصلاح خطای بردار(VECM) برای دوره زمانی 1389-1399 با تکنیکهای حداقل مربعات پویا،حداقل مربعات اصلاح شده،آزمون همجمعی و آزمون جوهانسون استفاده شد. برای بررسی عوامل موثر بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن،از متغیرهای سنتی که داده های منحنی کوزنتس محیطی رابین سالهای 1389-1399 نشان می دهد استفاده شده است.این متغیرها عبارتند از تولید ناخالص داخلی سرانه،جمعیت شهری،مصرف برق(کیلووات ساعت سرانه)،سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی،واردات و صادرات کالا و خدمات(درصد تولید ناخالص داخلی) که از مرکز آمار ایران ،سازمان محیط زیست و بانک مرکزی تهیه شده است..برای بدست آوردن پیچیدگی اقتصادی(ECI) از مدل پیشنهادی هیدالگو و هاوس مان (2009) استفاده شد.نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن تاثیری ندارد اما افزایش تولید و مصرف انرژی و افزایش صادرات و کاهش واردات بر انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن موثر است.همچنین بین افزایش درآمد سرانه،سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و انتشار گاز دی اکسید کربن رابطه معنی داری یافت نشد.طبق نتایج تحقیق پیشنهاد می شود از انرژیهای تجدیدپذیر در تولید استفاده شود و قوانین صادراتی و وارداتی برمبنای کاهش مخاطرات زیست محیطی باشد.
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