برنامه‌ریزی توسعه منابع انرژی گسترده با در نظر گرفتن سیاست‌های حمایتی سیاست‌گذار
محورهای موضوعی : مهندسی برق و کامپیوترعلیرضا شیخی فینی 1 , محسن پارسامقدم 2 , محمدکاظم شیخ‌الاسلامی 3
1 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
2 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
کلید واژه: برنامه‌ریزی دینامیکی تئوری بازی سیاست‌های حمایتی منابع انرژی گسترده,
چکیده مقاله :
این مقاله چارچوبي را بر مبنای برنامه‌ریزی دینامیکی و تئوری بازی برای برنامه‌ریزی توسعه تولید منابع انرژی گسترده از دیدگاه سرمایه‌گذار ارائه می‌دهد. در چارچوب ارائه‌شده، جنبه‌ها و ویژگی‌های مختلف برنامه‌ریزی این منابع از جمله عدم قطعیت، ریسک و سایر خصوصیات آنها مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در این مطالعه منابع بادی، گازی و برنامه‌های پاسخ‌گویی بار به عنوان منابع انرژی گسترده در نظر گرفته شده‌اند. عدم قطعیت‌های منابع بادی و برنامه‌های پاسخ‌گویی بار سبب می‌شود تا سرمایه‌گذاران این منابع دچار ریسک گردند و برای چیره‌شدن بر این مشکلات مدل اصلاح‌شده‌ای ارائه شده تا اثرات مداخلات سیاست‌گذار را بر توسعه منابع بادی و برنامه‌های پاسخ‌گویی بار ارزیابی نماید. اين كار با بهره‌گيري از برنامه‌ريزي ديناميكي انجام پذيرفته و در هر مرحله از اين برنامه‌ریزی، تعادل نش با استفاده از مدل کارنو محاسبه شده است. مدل ارائه‌شده عدم قطعیت ذاتی در تولید منابع بادی، برنامه‌های پاسخ‌گویی بار و عدم قطعیت در قیمت برق و سوخت را پوشش داده و می‌تواند حالت بهينه سرمایه‌گذاری در اين منابع را ارائه نماید. برای نشان‌دادن مؤثربودن روش پیشنهادی، این روش بر روی یک شبکه نمونه اجرا شده است.
This paper proposes a comprehensive framework for distributed energy resource (DER) expansion planning from investors’ viewpoint based on a combination of dynamic programming algorithm and game theory. In this framework, different aspects of DER planning i.e. their uncertainties, risks, pollution, etc. are included. Wind turbines, gas engines and demand response (DR) programs are considered as DERs in this study. The intermittent nature and uncertainty of wind power generation and also uncertainty of demand response programs will cause the investors to consider risk in their investment decisions. In order to overcome this problem, a modified model has been derived to study the regulatory intervention impacts on wind expansion planning and implementing DR programs. Dynamic programming method is utilized for this problem solving and in each step, the Nash equilibrium point is calculated using Cournot model. A model based on intermittent nature of wind power generation and uncertainties of DR programs is developed which can calculate the optimal investment strategies. The effectiveness of the proposed model is proved through implementing on a test system.
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