مدل‌سازي و ارزيابي قابليت اطمينان سيستم قدرت ترکيبي و تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور به کمک شبکه‌هاي بيزي
محورهای موضوعی : مهندسی برق و کامپیوترمجتبي الياسي 1 , حسین سیفی 2 , محمودرضا حقی‌فام 3
1 - دانشگاه تربيت مدرس
2 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
3 - دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
چکیده مقاله :
شبکه‌هاي بيزي به عنوان چارچوبي قدرتمند براي بررسي پديده‌هاي احتمالاتي در بسياري از مسایل دنياي واقعي کاربرد موفقيت‌آميزي داشته اما در حوزه قابليت اطمينان سيستم‌هاي قدرت ترکيبي به ندرت مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در مقايسه با روش‌هاي رايج، ارزيابي قابليت اطمينان با شبکه‌هاي بيزي هم در مدل‌سازي و هم در تحليل، قابليت‌هاي افزوده‌اي فراهم مي‌کند. از ديدگاه مدل‌سازي، بسياري از فرضيات محدودکننده روش‌هاي رايج حذف مي‌شود و از ديدگاه تحليل، امکان انجام بسياري از تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور فراهم مي‌شود که در روش‌هاي رايج به ندرت در دسترس و به سختي قابل انجام است. در اين مقاله، روشي جديد مبتني بر مجموعه‌هاي انقطاع حداقل براي مدل‌سازي قابليت اطمينان، ارزيابي قابليت اطمينان و تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور در سيستم‌هاي قدرت ترکيبي با شبکه‌هاي بيزي پيشنهاد شده است. ابتدا روشي جديد براي تعيين مجموعه‌هاي انقطاع حداقل در سيستم قدرت ترکيبي ارائه شده است. بر مبناي مجموعه‌هاي انقطاع حداقل، داده‌هاي قابليت اطمينان تجهيزات و ارتباط منطقي بين گره‌ها، ساختار و پارامترهاي مدل بيزي براي قابليت اطمينان سيستم قدرت ترکيبي تعيين شده است. براي کاهش بار محاسباتي و کاربردپذيري روش براي سيستم‌هاي بزرگ، گره‌هاي واسط پيشنهاد و با مدل بيزي ترکيب شده است. با استفاده از مدل بيزي، تحليل‌هاي قابليت اطمينان- محور متعددي بر روي سيستم قدرت ترکيبي ارائه شده که براي مطالعات مختلف سيستم قدرت مفيد بوده و در روش‌هاي رايج به سختي قابل انجام است. براي نمايش چگونگي استخراج مدل بيزي قابليت اطمينان، روش پيشنهادي در شبکه RBTS به اجرا درآمده و براي اعتبارسنجي، نتايج آن با روش‌هاي ديگر مقايسه شده است. نتايج اجراي تحليل‌هاي مختلف قابليت اطمينان- محور در اين شبکه بررسي شده و همچنين براي نمايش امکان‌پذيري در شبکه‌هاي بزرگ، روش پيشنهادي بر روي RTS اجرا شده است.
Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a strong framework for handling probabilistic events have been successfully applied in a variety of real-world problems, but they have received little attention in the area of composite power systems reliability assessment. Reliability assessment by BN provides some additional capabilities in comparison to conventional methods, both at the modeling and at the analysis levels. At the modeling level, several restrictive assumptions, implicit in the conventional methods, can be removed. At the analysis level, a variety of applicable reliability-based analysis which is hardly achievable in conventional methods, can be conveniently performed. This paper proposes a methodology based on Minimal Cutsets (MCs) to apply BNs to composite power system reliability modeling, reliability assessment and reliability-based analysis. To have a more accurate BN model, a new method of MC determination for composite power system is proposed. Bayesian structure is extracted, based on the determined MCs. Bayesian parameters are defined based on the logical relationships of nodes. To make the proposed method applicable to large composite power systems, virtual nodes are proposed and combined with Bayesian model. Also, a variety of reliability-based analyses are presented which are hardly achievable in conventional methods. The proposed method is validated by applying to RBTS and comparing the results with other reliability analysis methods. The proposed methodology is applied to the Reliability Test System (RTS), to show its feasibility in large networks.
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