برآورد شاخص ها و مولفه های جهانی شدن بر رشد اقتصادی ایران
الموضوعات : اقتصادی
صمد مصطفوی
1
,
امیرعلی فرهنگ
2
,
ابراهیم عبدی
3
1 - گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
2 - استادیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه پیام نور
3 - استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران
الکلمات المفتاحية: شاخص جهانی شدن KOF, جهانی شدن, رشد اقتصادی, موجک, ایران.,
ملخص المقالة :
جهانی شدن فرآیند پیچیده ای است که از مرزهای ملی فراتر می رود، اقتصادهای ملی، فرهنگ ها، فناوری ها و در نتیجه ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی را گرد هم می آورد که وابستگی متقابل بین کشورها را افزایش می دهد.این تحقیق با استفاده از شاخص جهانی شدن و مؤلفه های آن (شاخص های جهانی شدن اقتصادی، اجتماعی و سیاسی) تأثیر جهانی شدن بر رشد اقتصادی ایران را در بازه زمانی 1979 تا 2021 بررسی می کند. از طریق فرایند تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج به دست آمده از بررسی یافته هاي سريهاي زمانی شاخص جهانی شدن و رشد اقتصادی مشخص می¬شود که، ابتدائاً ، یک وابستگی نسبتاً بالایی در فرکانسهاي بالا در طول میانی دوره مورد بررسی بین این دو شاخص وجود دارد و دو شاخص هم فاز (همجهت) هستند و رشد اقتصادی علت افزایش جهانی شدن است و رشد اقتصادی شاخص پیشرو است همچنین در میان مدت تا سال 2000 رشد اقتصادی تاثیر غیر هم فازی برای جهانی شدن داشته است و با کاهش فرکانس( افزایش طول دوره سرمایه گذاري) به شدت میزان وابستگی بین این دو شاخص افزوده شده است و جهانی شدن به عنوان شاخص پیشرو باعث افزایش رشد اقتصادی کشور ایران شده است.پس در کوتاه مدت اثر متقدم بودن رشد اقتصادی و در بلند مدت اثر متقدم بودن جهانی سازی مشخص است.
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