بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر زمین‌لغزش در حوزه آبخیز ساحلی بهشهر-گلوگاه با استفاده از مکسنت در استان مازندران
الموضوعات :
1 - سازمان منابع طبیعی و آبخیزداری کشور
الکلمات المفتاحية: شیب, فاصله از جاده, جک نایف, حداکثر آنتروپی, اعتبارسنجی,
ملخص المقالة :
مطالعه حاضر بررسی مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر زمین‌لغزش درحوزه آبخیز ساحلی بهشهر-گلوگاه است. با پیمایش میدانی در منطقه مورد مطالعه نقاط حضور زمین‌لغزش با GPS ثبت شد، هفت عامل شیب، فاصله از جاده، فاصله از گسل، زمینشناسی، فاصله از رودخانه، متوسط بارش سالانه و تغییرات کاربری اراضی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار به‌عنوان متغیرهای مستقل با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS) تهیه و وارد مدل شد. برای مدل‌سازی و محاسبات از مدل حداکثر آنتروپی در محیط نرم‌افزار Maxent استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از نمودار جک نایف نشان داد که 3 عامل شیب، فاصله از جاده و زمینشناسی بیشترین اثر را بر زمین‌لغزش منطقه مورد مطالعه دارند. به‌طوری‌که با افزایش شیب (20-40 درصد) زمین‌لغزش بیشتر میشود همچنین زمین‌لغزش با فاصله از جاده رابطه عکس داشتند در عامل زمینشناسی نیز درون واحدهای PZq.d و Qra، بیشترین احتمال زمین‌لغزش وجود دارد. اعتبارسنجی مدل با استفاده سطح زیر منحنی ROC با مقدار 77/0 نشان داد که این مدل در منطقه مورد مطالعه قابل قبول است. از طرفی نتایج حاصل از طبقهبندی خطر زمین‌لغزش در منطقه مورد مطالعه نشاندهندهی پتانسیل 40 درصدی آن است. یافته‌های این مطالعه پایه و اساس مهمی را برای کمک به تصمیم‌گیران در مورد پیش‌گیری از فاجعه و کاهش آن ارائه میکند. همچنین به درک بهتر خطرات زمین‌لغزش کمک میکند، که برای توسعه اقدامات مدیریت خطر مناسب بسیار مفید است بنابراین پیشنهاد میگردد که در مناطق مختلف نیز به‌منظور شناخت مناطق پرخطر اقدام شود.
المصادر:
ذاکری¬نژاد، ر. و عمو شاهی، ه. 1401. ارزیابی خطر زمین¬لغزش با استفاده از داده های سنجش از دور ومدل حداکثر آنتروپی (منطقه مورد مطالعه: حوضه آبخیز کمه، جنوب استان اصفهان). پژوهش¬هاي ژئومورفولوژي كمّي، 2 (1): 128-149.
رضوی ترمه، و. و شرانی، ک. 1397. پهنه بندي خطر وقوع زمين لغزش با استفاده از روش¬هاي نسبت فراواني، آنتروپي و روش تصميم¬گيري تاپسيس (مطالعة موردي: حوزه فهليان، فارس). سنجش از دور و سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی، 9 (4): 119-138.
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ذاکری¬نژاد، ر. و عمو شاهی، ه. 1401. ارزیابی خطر زمین¬لغزش با استفاده از داده های سنجش از دور ومدل حداکثر آنتروپی (منطقه مورد مطالعه: حوضه آبخیز کمه، جنوب استان اصفهان). پژوهش¬هاي ژئومورفولوژي كمّي، 2 (1): 128-149.
رضوی ترمه، و. و شرانی، ک. 1397. پهنه بندي خطر وقوع زمين لغزش با استفاده از روش¬هاي نسبت فراواني، آنتروپي و روش تصميم¬گيري تاپسيس (مطالعة موردي: حوزه فهليان، فارس). سنجش از دور و سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی، 9 (4): 119-138.
صفامهر، م.، صالحی، م.، نصری، م. رهنما، م.، بور، ح. 1396. رفتارسنجی و پایدارسازي زمین لغزش براساس برداشت¬هاي نقشه برداري و داده¬هاي زمین¬شناسی مهندسی (مطالعه موردي: زمین لغزش ُنقُل در منطقه پادناي سمیرم). مسکن و محیط روستا، 162: 145-157.
قبادی، م. بهزادتبار، پ.ر، خدابخش، س. ایزدی کیان، ل. 1393. مطالعه عوامل زمین شناسی موثر بر وقوع زمین لغزش¬های منطقه زمان آباد، جنوب شرق همدان. مجله انجمن زمین شناسی مهندسی ایران، 3 (4): 1-14.
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عرب عامري، ع.، ك. شيراني و خ. رضايي. 1396 . پهنه¬بندي استعداد اراضي نسبت به وقوع زمين لغزش با روش¬هاي دمپستر- شيفر و نسبت فراواني در حوزه سرخون كارون. مجله پژوهش¬هاي حفاظت آبوخاك، 18(27): 41-57.
نوجوان، م.، سادات شاه زیدی، س،. د داودی، م.، امین الرعایایی، ه، 1398. پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش با استفاده از تلفیق دو مدل فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی و فازی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز کمه)، استان اصفهان پژوهش¬های ژئومورفولوژی کمی، 7 (28): 142-159.
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Arnone, E. Caracciolo, D. Noto, C.D. F. Preti, and R. L. Bras,“Modeling the hydrological and mechanical effect of roots on shallow landslides,” Water Resources Research, vol. 52, no. 11, pp. 8590–8612, 2016.
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Blahut, J., Westen, C., and Sterlacchini, S.: Analysis of landslide inventories for accurate prediction of debris-flow source areas, Geomorphology, 119, 36–51, 2010.
Chen, Y., Zhang, Y., Wang, L., Wang, Sh., Tian, D and Zhang, L. 2022. Influencing factors, deformation mechanism and failure process prediction for reservoir rock landslides: Tanjiahe landslide, three gorges reservoir area. Frontiers in Earth Science, 15: 1-19.
Cui YF, Zhou XJ, Guo CX (2017) Experimental study on the moving characteristics of fine grains in wide grading unconsolidated soil under heavy rainfall. J Mt Sci 14(3):417–431
Cui Y, Cheng D, Choi CE, Jin W, Lei Y, Kargel JS (2019a) The cost of rapid and haphazard urbanization: lessons learned from the Freetown landslide disaster. Landslides 16:1167–1176
Fan X, Scaringi G, Korup O, West AJ, Westen CJ, Tanyas H, Hovius N, Hales TC, Jibson RW, Allstadt KE, Zhang L, Evans SG, Xu C, Li G, Pei X, Xu Q, Huang R (2019) Earthquake-induced chains of geologic hazards: patterns, mechanisms, and impacts. Rev Geophys 57(2):421–503
Gao, J., Shi, X., Li, L., Zhou, Z and Wang, J. 2022. Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility Using Different Machine Learning Methods in Longnan City, China. Sustainability, 14: 16716.
García-Rodríguez, M. J., J. A. Malpica, B. Benito, and M. Díaz. 2008. “Susceptibility Assessment of Earthquake-triggered Landslides in El Salvador Using Logistic Regression.” Geomorphology 95 (3–4): 172–191. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.06.001.
Gonzalez-Ollauri A. and Mickovski, S. B. “Plant-soil reinforcement response under different soil hydrological regimes,” Geoderma, vol. 285, pp. 141–150, 2017.
Guo, J., Yi, Sh., Yin, Y., Ciu, Y., Quin, M., Li, T and Wang, Ch. 2020. The effect of topography on landslide kinematics: a case study of the Jichang town landslide in Guizhou, China. Landslides, 9-16.
Guzzetti, F., Mondini, A. C., Cardinali, M., Fiorucci, F., Santangelo, M., and Chang, K. T.: Landslide inventory maps: New tools for an old problem, Earth-Sci. Rev., 112, 42–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.02.001, 2012.
Hilker, N., Badoux, A., and Hegg, C.: The Swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972–2007, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 913–925, 2015.
Huang, G., Zheng, M., Peng, J. 2021. Effect of Vegetation Roots on the Threshold of Slope Instability Induced by Rainfall and Runoff. Hindawi Geofluids, Article ID 6682113, 19 pages
Hong, H., Kornejady, A., Soltani, A., Termeh, S.V.R., Liu, J., Zhu, A.X., Ahmad, B.B., and Wang, Y. Landslide suscep¬tibility assessment in the Anfu County, China: comparing different statistical and probabilistic models considering the new topo-hydrological factor (HAND). Earth Science Informatics, 2018, 11(4): 605-622. DOI: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/ s12145-018-0352-8
Javadinejad, S., Dara, R., Jafari, F. 2019. Effect of Precipitation Characteristics on Spatial and Temporal Varia¬tions of Landslide in Kermanshah Province in Iran. Journal of Geographical Research. 2 (4): 7-14
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