Short Time Price Forecasting for Electricity Market Based on Hybrid Fuzzy Wavelet Transform and Bacteria Foraging Algorithm
محورهای موضوعی : Machine learning
keyvan Borna
1
(Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran)
Sepideh Palizdar
2
(Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran)
کلید واژه: prediction , wavelet transform , fuzzy logic , bacteria foraging algorithm , electricity market,
چکیده مقاله :
Predicting the price of electricity is very important because electricity can not be stored. To this end, parallel methods and adaptive regression have been used in the past. But because dependence on the ambient temperature, there was no good result. In this study, linear prediction methods and neural networks and fuzzy logic have been studied and emulated. An optimized fuzzy-wavelet prediction method is proposed to predict the price of electricity. In this method, in order to have a better prediction, the membership functions of the fuzzy regression along with the type of the wavelet transform filter have been optimized using the E.Coli Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm. Then, to better compare this optimal method with other prediction methods including conventional linear prediction and neural network methods, they were analyzed with the same electricity price data. In fact, our fuzzy-wavelet method has a more desirable solution than previous methods. More precisely by choosing a suitable filter and a multiresolution processing method, the maximum error has improved by 13.6%, and the mean squared error has improved about 17.9%. In comparison with the fuzzy prediction method, our proposed method has a higher computational volume due to the use of wavelet transform as well as double use of fuzzy prediction. Due to the large number of layers and neurons used in it, the neural network method has a much higher computational volume than our fuzzy-wavelet method.
Predicting the price of electricity is very important because electricity can not be stored. To this end, parallel methods and adaptive regression have been used in the past. But because dependence on the ambient temperature, there was no good result. In this study, linear prediction methods and neural networks and fuzzy logic have been studied and emulated. An optimized fuzzy-wavelet prediction method is proposed to predict the price of electricity. In this method, in order to have a better prediction, the membership functions of the fuzzy regression along with the type of the wavelet transform filter have been optimized using the E.Coli Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm. Then, to better compare this optimal method with other prediction methods including conventional linear prediction and neural network methods, they were analyzed with the same electricity price data. In fact, our fuzzy-wavelet method has a more desirable solution than previous methods. More precisely by choosing a suitable filter and a multiresolution processing method, the maximum error has improved by 13.6%, and the mean squared error has improved about 17.9%. In comparison with the fuzzy prediction method, our proposed method has a higher computational volume due to the use of wavelet transform as well as double use of fuzzy prediction. Due to the large number of layers and neurons used in it, the neural network method has a much higher computational volume than our fuzzy-wavelet method.
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